StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Geno Smith Projections

NYJ · QB · #7
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs CHI
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
PASS TDPASS YDS
1.1passing touchdowns projected vs CHI
Season average 1.3 · Last five 1.4
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1 of the result
Recent passing touchdowns
012330TEN1GB3DETStatIQ projection 1.1
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 27, 2026@ @ DET3
Sep 20, 2026vs vs GB1
Sep 13, 2026@ @ TEN0
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Geno Smith
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How has Geno Smith done against CHI?2 per game1 game vs CHIExplore this question

Projection context: Geno Smith, 1.1 passing touchdowns

StatIQ projects Geno Smith for 1.1 passing touchdowns against CHI in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Geno Smith has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games, 1.3 per game this season (2026), and 2 across 1 game against CHI. That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Geno Smith’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Touchdowns track record
1
average projection miss
91 completed passing touchdowns projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
CHI
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
1.4 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for Geno Smith vs CHI?

StatIQ projects Geno Smith for 1.1 passing touchdowns against CHI in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Geno Smith performed in passing touchdowns recently?

Geno Smith has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games, 1.3 per game this season (2026), and 2 across 1 game against CHI. That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of CHI vs NYJ
the whole game
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