Alvin Kamara rush + rec yards projection vs the line
NO · RB · #41
Next game vs CLE · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 28.9 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections · Updated Nov 5
Compare prices · 3 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush + Rec Yards | 49.6 | 46.5 | +3.1 |
| Rushing Yards | 27.7 | 25.5 | +2.2 |
| Receiving Yards | 23.5 | 17.5 | +6.0 |
| Receptions | 3.1 | 3.5 | −0.4 |
Recent rush + rec yards
45.0Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 46.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | RUSH+REC | RUSH YDS | REC YDS | REC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026vs PIT | 62 | 5 | 57 | 7 |
| Oct 18, 2026at NYG | 69 | 34 | 35 | 2 |
| Oct 11, 2026vs MIN | 6 | 12 | -6 | 2 |
| Oct 5, 2026vs ATL | 58 | 23 | 35 | 5 |
| Sep 27, 2026vs LV | 41 | 36 | 5 | 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026at BAL | 22 | 15 | 7 | 5 |
| Nov 23, 2025vs ATL | 15 | 11 | 4 | 2 |
| Nov 9, 2025at CAR | 115 | 83 | 32 | 3 |
| Nov 2, 2025at LAR | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1 |
| Oct 26, 2025vs TB | 45 | 21 | 24 | 2 |
| Average · last 10 games | 45 | 25.4 | 19.6 | 3 |
Stats and game log: receiving yards · receptions
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL rush + rec yards model · 139 graded projections
28.9 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Alvin Kamara has averaged 47.2 yards over his last 5 games and 43 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Alvin Kamara’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+3.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 139 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Alvin Kamara’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- CLE
- Kickoff
- Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- CLE allowed the 22nd-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 122.5 yards/game · 22nd of 32
Compare prices
Rush + Rec Yards · line 46.5.
3 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −114.
Prices as of Nov 5, 6:45 PM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Alvin Kamara, answered here:
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