Wednesday · Sep 30

Past date · results as graded · 2189–1692 · 56.4% · +322.69u 3,881 graded MLB plays, through Oct 19

Today

Wednesday · Oct 21

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Wednesday · Sep 30

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What is on this board: 19 plays logged at a price · everything else is a projection, not a pick

9 graded research rows · not part of the pick record
28 settled and still on the board

CHC atSD · 10:00 PM ET

Jackson MerrillSD · vs CHC · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

1.23

0.5

+0.73

+ WinOver 0.5 · -174+0.57uat Novig

Actual results

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: 63.5%

Alex BregmanCHC · at SD · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

1.06

0.5

+0.56

− LossOver 0.5 · -152−1.00uat BetRivers

Actual results

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: 60.3%

Jake CronenworthSD · vs CHC · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

1.03

0.5

+0.53

− LossOver 0.5 · +102−1.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 49.5%

Dansby SwansonCHC · at SD · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.61

0.5

+0.11

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +106+1.06uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 50.4% chance of zero hits. The recorded +106 price needs about 49% to break even.

Actual results

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: 48.5%

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · vs CHC · Sep 30 · Final

Total Bases

2.34

1.5

+0.84

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -104+0.96uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 52.6% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -104 price needs about 51% to break even.

Actual results

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: 51.0%

BOS atNYY · 8:00 PM ET

Caleb DurbinBOS · at NYY · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.81

0.5

+0.31

− LossOver 0.5 · -125−1.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 55.6%

Trent GrishamNYY · vs BOS · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.49

0.5

−0.01

− LossUnder 0.5 · +118−1.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 45.9%

Austin WellsNYY · vs BOS · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.48

0.5

−0.02

− LossUnder 0.5 · -112−1.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 52.8%

Jahmai JonesBOS · at NYY · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.38

0.5

−0.12

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +100+1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Ben RiceNYY · vs BOS · Sep 30 · Final

Total Bases

2.27

1.5

+0.77

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -128+0.78uat DraftKings

Why Under? Our model estimates a 58.0% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -128 price needs about 56% to break even.

Actual results

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: 56.1%

Ryan McMahonNYY · vs BOS · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.59

0.5

+0.09

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.59Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 53.5%

Nate EatonBOS · at NYY · Sep 30 · Final

0.29

0.5

−0.21

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.29Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.5%

CWS atHOU · 5:00 PM ET

Sam AntonacciCWS · at HOU · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

1.10

0.5

+0.60

+ WinOver 0.5 · -156+0.64uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 60.9%

Kyle TeelCWS · at HOU · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.66

0.5

+0.16

− LossUnder 0.5 · +125−1.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.9% chance of zero hits. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Colson MontgomeryCWS · at HOU · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.41

0.5

−0.09

+ WinUnder 0.5 · -122+0.82uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 55.0%

Taylor TrammellHOU · vs CWS · Sep 30 · Final

Total Bases

0.75

0.5

+0.25

VoidUnder 0.5 · -1440.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 60.9% chance of zero total bases. The recorded -144 price needs about 59% to break even.

Actual results

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: 59.0%

PHI atATL · 2:00 PM ET

Edmundo SosaPHI · at ATL · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.71

0.5

+0.21

+ WinOver 0.5 · -127+0.79uat BetRivers

Actual results

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: 55.9%

Kyle SchwarberPHI · at ATL · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.67

0.5

+0.17

− LossUnder 0.5 · +145−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 42.3% chance of zero hits. The recorded +145 price needs about 41% to break even.

Actual results

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: 40.8%

J.T. RealmutoPHI · at ATL · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.56

0.5

+0.06

− LossUnder 0.5 · +135−1.00uat Fanatics Sportsbook

Why Under? Our model estimates a 44.8% chance of zero hits. The recorded +135 price needs about 43% to break even.

Actual results

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: 42.6%

Brandon MarshPHI · at ATL · Sep 30 · Final

0.55

0.5

+0.05

− LossUnder 0.5 · +117−1.00uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.6% chance of zero hits. The recorded +117 price needs about 46% to break even.

Actual results

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: 46.1%

Ozzie AlbiesATL · vs PHI · Sep 30 · Final

1.04

1.5

−0.46

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -167+0.60uat Novig

Actual results

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: 62.5%

Michael Harris IIATL · vs PHI · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

1.33

0.5

+0.83

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 1.33Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 61.5%

Ha-Seong KimATL · vs PHI · Sep 30 · Final

Hits

0.32

0.5

−0.18

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.32Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 51.0%

Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL · vs PHI · Sep 30 · Final

Total Bases

1.93

1.5

+0.43

Actual: 0 total bases · Projection: 1.93Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 57.1%

Sean MurphyATL · vs PHI · Sep 30 · Final

Total Bases

0.64

0.5

+0.14

Actual: 2 total bases · Projection: 0.64Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 50.0%

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