StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Sam Darnold Projections

SEA · QB · #14
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs LAC
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
PASS TDPASS YDS
1.3passing touchdowns projected vs LAC
Season average 2 · Last five 1.4
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1 of the result
Recent passing touchdowns
012340NE4WSHStatIQ projection 1.3
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 27, 2026@ @ WSH4
Sep 10, 2026vs vs NE0
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Sam Darnold
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Sam Darnold trending lately?1.4 per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Sam Darnold, 1.3 passing touchdowns

StatIQ projects Sam Darnold for 1.3 passing touchdowns against LAC in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Sam Darnold has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Sam Darnold’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Touchdowns track record
1
average projection miss
91 completed passing touchdowns projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
LAC
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
1.4 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for Sam Darnold vs LAC?

StatIQ projects Sam Darnold for 1.3 passing touchdowns against LAC in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Sam Darnold performed in passing touchdowns recently?

Sam Darnold has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

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