MarShawn Lloyd Projections

GB · RB · #32

Next game vs DAL · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets

REC RUSH YDS REC YDS RUSH+REC

Receptions · Week 6

vs DAL · Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET

Projection only

2.1Projection · receptions

1.5Line · consensus

+0.6Gap

Average · last 5 games 2.0

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receptions	2.1	1.5	+0.6
Rushing Yards	34.7	42.5	−7.8
Receiving Yards	16.0	12.5	+3.5
Rush + Rec Yards	48.3	59.5	−11.2

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

2.0Average receptions, last 5 (5 games)Over 1.5 in 3 of 5 · past results, not odds

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 24

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

MarShawn Lloyd receptions by game
Date	Opponent	REC
Oct 11	vs CHI	1
Oct 4	@ TB	5
Sep 24	vs ATL	2
Sep 20	@ NYJ	2
Sep 13	@ MIN	0

MarShawn Lloyd’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of DAL vs GB

Opponent: DAL
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: DAL allowed the 4th-most receptions to RBs in 2025 4.9/game · 4th of 32

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Receptions · MarShawn Lloyd

Receptions · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−186	–
betPARXOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−177Best	+133
BetRiversOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−177Best	–
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−179	+140
ESPN BETOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−180	+135
FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−210	+154Best
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−200	+135

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about MarShawn Lloyd

Questions to ask Explorer about MarShawn Lloyd, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects MarShawn Lloyd for 2.1 receptions against DAL in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, MarShawn Lloyd has averaged 2 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for MarShawn Lloyd’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.6 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: MarShawn Lloyd’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for MarShawn Lloyd vs DAL?

StatIQ projects MarShawn Lloyd for 2.1 receptions against DAL in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has MarShawn Lloyd performed in receptions recently?

MarShawn Lloyd has averaged 2 over his last 5 games and 2 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did MarShawn Lloyd have in his last game?

MarShawn Lloyd had 1 receptions in his most recent game vs CHI. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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