Justice Hill Projections

BAL · RB · #43

Next game at CLE · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

3 markets

RUSH+REC REC YDS REC

Rush + Rec Yards · Week 6

at CLE · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only

38.6Projection · rush + rec yards

25.5Line · consensus

+13.1Gap

Average · last 5 games 36.4

Average miss 27.7 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rush + Rec Yards	38.6	25.5	+13.1
Receiving Yards	10.9	9.5	+1.4
Receptions	1.5	1.5	0.0

Recent rush + rec yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

25.6Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 25.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Oct 12

Oct 26

Oct 30

Nov 9

Nov 23

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Justice Hill rush + rec yards by game
Date	Opponent	RUSH+REC
Oct 11	@ ATL	78
Oct 4	vs TEN	25
Sep 27	vs DAL	33
Sep 20	vs NO	18
Sep 13	@ IND	28
Nov 23	vs NYJ · 2025	0
Nov 9	@ MIN · 2025	13
Oct 30	@ MIA · 2025	15
Oct 26	vs CHI · 2025	2
Oct 12	vs LAR · 2025	44

Justice Hill’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of BAL vs CLE

Opponent: CLE
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: CLE allowed the 22nd-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 122.5 yards/game · 22nd of 32
Against CLE: 25 yards a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

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Rush + Rec Yards · Justice Hill

Rush + Rec Yards · line 25.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 25.5	Under 25.5
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:10 PM ET	−115Best	−115Best
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:10 PM ET	−115Best	−115Best
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 PM ET	−120	−120

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:10 PM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Justice Hill

Questions to ask Explorer about Justice Hill, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections

27.7 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Justice Hill for 38.6 rush + rec yards against CLE in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Justice Hill has averaged 36.4 yards over his last 5 games, 36.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 25 yards across 1 game against CLE; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Justice Hill’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+13.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 45 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Justice Hill’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's rush + rec yards projection for Justice Hill vs CLE?

StatIQ projects Justice Hill for 38.6 yards rush + rec yards against CLE in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Justice Hill performed in rush + rec yards recently?

Justice Hill has averaged 36.4 yards over his last 5 games, 36.4 yards per game this season (2026), and 25 yards across 1 game against CLE. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many rush + rec yards did Justice Hill have in his last game?

Justice Hill had 78 yards rush + rec yards in his most recent game vs ATL. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's rush + rec yards projections?

Across 45 completed rush + rec yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 27.7 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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