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Justice Hill Projections

BAL · RB · #43

Next game at CLE · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

2 markets
RECREC YDS
Receptions · Week 6

at CLE · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only
1.8Projection · receptions
1.5Line · consensus
+0.3Gap

Average · last 5 games 1.4

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Receptions1.81.5+0.3
Receiving Yards13.78.5+5.2

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

1.5Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 1.5 in 5 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log
Justice Hill receptions by game
DateOpponentREC
Oct 11@ ATL2
Oct 4vs TEN2
Sep 27vs DAL0
Sep 20vs NO2
Sep 13@ IND1
Nov 23vs NYJ · 20250
Nov 9@ MIN · 20251
Oct 30@ MIA · 20252
Oct 26vs CHI · 20250
Oct 12vs LAR · 20255

Justice Hill’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of BAL vs CLE
Opponent
CLE
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability
Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense
CLE allowed the 18th-most receptions to RBs in 2025 4/game · 18th of 32
Against CLE
3 a game 1 previous meeting · small sample

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Receptions · Justice Hill

Receptions · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 1.5Under 1.5
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−107Best−119Best
FanDuelOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−108−122
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−110−120
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−110−120
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−110−130

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Justice Hill

Questions to ask Explorer about Justice Hill, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

01.520
74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Justice Hill for 1.8 receptions against CLE in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Justice Hill has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games, 1.4 per game this season (2026), and 3 across 1 game against CLE; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection
StatIQ’s single number for Justice Hill’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line
The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap
Projection minus the line (+0.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual
Justice Hill’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Justice Hill vs CLE?

StatIQ projects Justice Hill for 1.8 receptions against CLE in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Justice Hill performed in receptions recently?

Justice Hill has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games, 1.4 per game this season (2026), and 3 across 1 game against CLE. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did Justice Hill have in his last game?

Justice Hill had 2 receptions in his most recent game vs ATL. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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