StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

C.J. Stroud Projections

HOU · QB · #7
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs DAL
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
PASS TDPASS YDS
1.6passing touchdowns projected vs DAL
Season average 1 · Last five 1.2
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1 of the result
Recent passing touchdowns
011222BUF0CIN1INDStatIQ projection 1.6
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 27, 2026@ @ IND1
Sep 20, 2026vs vs CIN0
Sep 13, 2026vs vs BUF2
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into C.J. Stroud
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is C.J. Stroud trending lately?1.2 per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: C.J. Stroud, 1.6 passing touchdowns

StatIQ projects C.J. Stroud for 1.6 passing touchdowns against DAL in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: C.J. Stroud has averaged 1.2 over his last 5 games and 1 per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See C.J. Stroud’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Touchdowns track record
1
average projection miss
91 completed passing touchdowns projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
DAL
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
1.2 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for C.J. Stroud vs DAL?

StatIQ projects C.J. Stroud for 1.6 passing touchdowns against DAL in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has C.J. Stroud performed in passing touchdowns recently?

C.J. Stroud has averaged 1.2 over his last 5 games and 1 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of DAL vs HOU
the whole game
See the full NFL slate