Receptions · Week 6
Projection only
2.2Projection · receptions
2.5Line · consensus
−0.3Gap
Average · last 5 games 1.4
Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16
Compare
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Projections & lines
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 2.2 | 2.5 | −0.3 |
| Rushing Yards | 55.7 | 67.5 | −11.8 |
| Receiving Yards | 15.0 | 14.5 | +0.5 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 69.1 | 86.5 | −17.4 |
Recent receptions
1.0Average receptions, last 9 (9 games)Over 2.5 in 1 of 9 · past results, not odds
Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not
Full game log
| Date | Opponent | REC |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11 | vs CLE | 1 |
| Oct 4 | @ CHI | 2 |
| Sep 27 | @ DET | 3 |
| Sep 20 | vs GB | 1 |
| Sep 13 | @ TEN | 0 |
| Sep 29 | @ MIA · 2025 | 0 |
| Sep 21 | @ TB · 2025 | 2 |
| Sep 14 | vs BUF · 2025 | 0 |
| Sep 7 | vs PIT · 2025 | 0 |
This matchup
- Opponent
- NE
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- NE allowed the 6th-most receptions to RBs in 2025 4.8/game · 6th of 32
Compare prices
Receptions · line 2.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.
| Book | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Bally BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −136 | – |
| betPARXOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −129 | +100Best |
| BetRiversOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −130 | – |
| DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −115Best | −111 |
| ESPN BETOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −120 | −110 |
| FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −128 | −104 |
| Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −120 | −110 |
| Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −120 | −110 |
| Shown, never used as our price | ||
| FliffOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −135 | −110 |
Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.
Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.
About these books
Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Braelon Allen, answered here:
Model accuracy
NFL reception model · 146 graded projections
1.6average miss (mean absolute error)
74 of 146 within 1.5
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
StatIQ projects Braelon Allen for 2.2 receptions against NE in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Braelon Allen has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games and 1.4 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Braelon Allen’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (−0.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Braelon Allen’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Braelon Allen vs NE?
StatIQ projects Braelon Allen for 2.2 receptions against NE in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.
How has Braelon Allen performed in receptions recently?
Braelon Allen has averaged 1.4 over his last 5 games and 1.4 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.
How many receptions did Braelon Allen have in his last game?
Braelon Allen had 1 receptions in his most recent game vs CLE. The full game log on the page has the rest.
How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?
Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.
Next
The rest of NE vs NYJ
228.5Projection · pass yds
155.5Projection · pass yds
74.3Projection · rush+rec
59.3Projection · rec yds
39.7Projection · rec yds