StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Aaron Jones Projections

MIN · RB · #33
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs MIA
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
81.9rush + rec yards projected vs MIA
Season average 79 · Last five 78.6
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 28.8 yards of the result
Recent rush + rec yards
029598811840GB105CHI92TBStatIQ projection 81.9
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentRUSH+REC
Sep 27, 2026@ @ TB92
Sep 20, 2026@ @ CHI105
Sep 13, 2026vs vs GB40
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Aaron Jones
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Aaron Jones trending lately?78.6 yards per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Aaron Jones, 81.9 rush + rec yards

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 81.9 rush + rec yards against MIA in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Aaron Jones has averaged 78.6 yards over his last 5 games and 79 yards per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 184 completed rush + rec yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 28.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Aaron Jones’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Rush + Rec Yards track record
28.8yards
average projection miss
184 completed rush + rec yards projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
MIA
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
78.6 yards over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's rush + rec yards projection for Aaron Jones vs MIA?

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 81.9 yards rush + rec yards against MIA in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Aaron Jones performed in rush + rec yards recently?

Aaron Jones has averaged 78.6 yards over his last 5 games and 79 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's rush + rec yards projections?

Across 184 completed rush + rec yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 28.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of MIA vs MIN
the whole game
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