A.J. Brown Projections

NE · WR · #1

Next game vs NYJ · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

2 markets

REC REC YDS

Receptions · Week 6

vs NYJ · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only

4.4Projection · receptions

3.5Line · consensus

+0.9Gap

Average · last 5 games 5.0

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 17

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receptions	4.4	3.5	+0.9
Receiving Yards	62.3	50.5	+11.8

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

5.6Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 3.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Oct 19

Nov 10

Nov 16

Nov 23

Nov 28

Dec 8

Dec 14

Dec 20

Dec 28

Sep 9

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Sep 9 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

A.J. Brown receptions by game
Date	Opponent	REC
Sep 9	@ SEA	3
Dec 28	@ BUF · 2025	5
Dec 20	@ WSH · 2025	9
Dec 14	vs LV · 2025	2
Dec 8	@ LAC · 2025	6
Nov 28	vs CHI · 2025	10
Nov 23	@ DAL · 2025	8
Nov 16	vs DET · 2025	7
Nov 10	@ GB · 2025	2
Oct 19	@ MIN · 2025	4

A.J. Brown’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of NE vs NYJ

Opponent: NYJ
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Questionable at publish, from the availability check; StatIQ does not show NFL injury reports yet
Opponent defense: NYJ allowed the 22nd-most receptions to WRs in 2025 10.5/game · 22nd of 32

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Receptions · A.J. Brown

Receptions · line 3.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 3.5	Under 3.5
DraftKingsOct 17, 11:11 AM ET	−146Best	+114
FanDuelOct 17, 11:10 AM ET	−154	+116Best
Hard Rock BetOct 17, 11:10 AM ET	−155	+115
Hardrockbet FlOct 17, 11:10 AM ET	−155	+115
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 17, 11:10 AM ET	−155	+110

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 17, 11:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about A.J. Brown

Questions to ask Explorer about A.J. Brown, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects A.J. Brown for 4.4 receptions against NYJ in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, A.J. Brown has averaged 5 over his last 5 games and 3 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for A.J. Brown’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.9 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: A.J. Brown’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for A.J. Brown vs NYJ?

StatIQ projects A.J. Brown for 4.4 receptions against NYJ in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has A.J. Brown performed in receptions recently?

A.J. Brown has averaged 5 over his last 5 games and 3 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did A.J. Brown have in his last game?

A.J. Brown had 3 receptions in his most recent game vs SEA. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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