MLB Player Prop Projections Today, Oct 22

LAA atHOU · 8:10 PM ET

Isaac ParedesHOU · vs LAA · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.98

0.5

+0.48

+ WinOver 0.5 · -174+0.57uat Novig

Actual results

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: 63.5%

Daulton VarshoHOU · vs LAA · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

− LossUnder 0.5 · +165−1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 40.1% chance of zero hits. The recorded +165 price needs about 38% to break even.

Actual results

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: 37.7%

Cam SmithHOU · vs LAA · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.76

1.5

+0.26

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -154+0.64uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 62.5% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -154 price needs about 61% to break even.

Actual results

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: 60.6%

LaMonte Wade Jr.HOU · vs LAA · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

0.78

0.5

+0.28

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +125+1.25uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.0% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Adam FrazierLAA · at HOU · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

0.60

0.5

+0.10

− LossUnder 0.5 · +100−1.00uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 52.1% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +100 price needs about 50% to break even.

Actual results

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: 50.0%

WSH atTEX · 8:05 PM ET

Corey SeagerTEX · vs WSH · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.95

0.5

+0.45

+ WinOver 0.5 · -174+0.57uat Novig

Actual results

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: 63.5%

Ezequiel DuranTEX · vs WSH · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.88

0.5

+0.38

+ WinOver 0.5 · -150+0.65uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Evan CarterTEX · vs WSH · Aug 20 · Final

0.69

0.5

+0.19

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +102+1.02uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 51.4% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +102 price needs about 50% to break even.

Actual results

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: 49.5%

Nasim NunezWSH · at TEX · Aug 20 · Final

0.60

0.5

+0.10

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +100+1.00uat betPARX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 52.3% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +100 price needs about 50% to break even.

Actual results

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: 50.0%

NYY atBAL · 6:35 PM ET

Pete AlonsoBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.28

0.5

+0.78

+ WinOver 0.5 · -190+0.53uat Bally Bet

Actual results

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: 65.5%

Ryan McMahonNYY · at BAL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.67

0.5

+0.17

VoidUnder 0.5 · +1300.00uat Fanatics Sportsbook

Why Under? Our model estimates a 45.6% chance of zero hits. The recorded +130 price needs about 43% to break even.

Actual results

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: 43.5%

Ben RiceNYY · at BAL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.65

0.5

+0.15

− LossUnder 0.5 · +185−1.00uat Hard Rock Bet (OH)

Why Under? Our model estimates a 36.8% chance of zero hits. The recorded +185 price needs about 35% to break even.

Actual results

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: 35.1%

Austin WellsNYY · at BAL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

− LossUnder 0.5 · +104−1.00uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 51.2% chance of zero hits. The recorded +104 price needs about 49% to break even.

Actual results

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: 49.0%

Colton CowserBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

+ WinUnder 0.5 · -120+0.83uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 56.9% chance of zero hits. The recorded -120 price needs about 55% to break even.

Actual results

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: 54.5%

Trent GrishamNYY · at BAL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.99

0.5

+0.49

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.99Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 60.9%

Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.78

0.5

+0.28

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.78Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Jackson HollidayBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.72

0.5

+0.22

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.72Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 56.9%

Samuel BasalloBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.68

0.5

+0.18

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.68Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 42.6%

Carlos NarvaezBAL · vs NYY · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.31

0.5

−0.19

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.31Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.5%

ATL atCWS · 2:10 PM ET

Michael Harris IIATL · at CWS · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.78

1.5

+0.28

− LossUnder 1.5 · -146−1.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 61.9% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -146 price needs about 59% to break even.

Actual results

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: 59.3%

Ozzie AlbiesATL · at CWS · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.25

1.5

−0.25

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -140+0.71uat BetMGM

Actual results

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: 58.3%

ATH atKC · 2:10 PM ET

Jac CaglianoneKC · vs ATH · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.44

0.5

+0.94

VoidOver 0.5 · -2000.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 66.7%

Maikel GarciaKC · vs ATH · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.02

0.5

+0.52

+ WinOver 0.5 · -205+0.48uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 67.2%

Carlos CortesATH · at KC · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.48

0.5

−0.02

− LossUnder 0.5 · +166−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 37.6%

Tyler TolbertKC · vs ATH · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

0.99

0.5

+0.49

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +130+1.30uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 45.2% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +130 price needs about 43% to break even.

Actual results

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: 43.5%

Nick LoftinKC · vs ATH · Aug 20 · Final

0.72

1.5

−0.78

− LossUnder 1.5 · -150−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Donovan WaltonATH · at KC · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.55Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 42.0%

Brian ServenATH · at KC · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.54

0.5

+0.04

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.54Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 43.1%

Salvador PerezKC · vs ATH · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.24

1.5

−0.26

Actual: 3 total bases · Projection: 1.24Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 58.8%

SEA atMIL · 2:10 PM ET

Jackson ChourioMIL · vs SEA · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.18

0.5

+0.68

+ WinOver 0.5 · -205+0.49uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 67.2%

Dominic CanzoneSEA · at MIL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.00

0.5

+0.50

+ WinOver 0.5 · -146+0.67uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 59.3%

Randy ArozarenaSEA · at MIL · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.93

0.5

+0.43

− LossOver 0.5 · -178−1.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 64.0%

Andrew VaughnMIL · vs SEA · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.27

1.5

−0.23

VoidUnder 1.5 · -2000.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 66.7%

SF atCLE · 1:10 PM ET

Angel GenaoCLE · vs SF · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.17

0.5

+0.67

+ WinOver 0.5 · -144+0.68uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 59.0%

Victor BericotoSF · at CLE · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.88

0.5

+0.38

− LossOver 0.5 · -113−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 53.1%

Willy AdamesSF · at CLE · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.87

0.5

+0.37

+ WinOver 0.5 · -128+0.77uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 56.1%

Bryce EldridgeSF · at CLE · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.87

0.5

+0.37

+ WinOver 0.5 · -113+0.87uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 53.1%

Rafael DeversSF at CLE · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.81

0.5

+0.31

+ WinOver 0.5 · -134+0.73uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 57.3%

Osleivis BasabeSF · at CLE · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.85

0.5

+0.35

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.85Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 55.2%

Travis BazzanaCLE · vs SF · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.70

0.5

+0.20

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.70Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 58.3%

TOR atTB · 1:10 PM ET

Jonathan ArandaTB · vs TOR · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

1.23

0.5

+0.73

+ WinOver 0.5 · -205+0.48uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 67.2%

Myles StrawTOR · at TB · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

0.81

0.5

+0.31

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +121+1.19uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 47.5% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +121 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 45.2%

STL atCIN · 12:40 PM ET

Bryan TorresSTL · at CIN · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.56

0.5

+0.06

− LossUnder 0.5 · +115−1.00uat Hard Rock Bet (OH)

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.4% chance of zero hits. The recorded +115 price needs about 47% to break even.

Actual results

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: 46.5%

Michael TogliaSTL at CIN · Aug 20 · Final

Hits

0.38

0.5

−0.12

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +125+1.25uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 44.4%

Ke'Bryan HayesCIN · vs STL · Aug 20 · Final

0.35

0.5

−0.15

− LossUnder 0.5 · +110−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 47.6%

Hector RodriguezCIN · vs STL · Aug 20 · Final

0.27

0.5

−0.23

− LossUnder 0.5 · +130−1.00uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 43.5%

Alec BurlesonSTL · at CIN · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.99

1.5

+0.49

+ WinUnder 1.5 · +106+1.06uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 50.6% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded +106 price needs about 49% to break even.

Actual results

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: 48.5%

Tyler StephensonCIN · vs STL · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.39

1.5

−0.11

Actual: 0 total bases · Projection: 1.39Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Elly De La CruzCIN · vs STL · Aug 20 · Final

Total Bases

1.34

1.5

−0.16

Actual: 1 total bases · Projection: 1.34Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.5%

Thursday · Aug 20

Today

LAA atHOU · 8:10 PM ET

WSH atTEX · 8:05 PM ET

NYY atBAL · 6:35 PM ET

ATL atCWS · 2:10 PM ET

ATH atKC · 2:10 PM ET

SEA atMIL · 2:10 PM ET

SF atCLE · 1:10 PM ET

TOR atTB · 1:10 PM ET

STL atCIN · 12:40 PM ET

Thursday · Aug 20

LAA atHOU · 8:10 PM ET

WSH atTEX · 8:05 PM ET

NYY atBAL · 6:35 PM ET

ATL atCWS · 2:10 PM ET

ATH atKC · 2:10 PM ET

SEA atMIL · 2:10 PM ET

SF atCLE · 1:10 PM ET

TOR atTB · 1:10 PM ET

STL atCIN · 12:40 PM ET