Rico Dowdle Projections

PIT · RB · #13

Next game at TB · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets

RUSH+REC RUSH YDS REC YDS REC

Rush + Rec Yards · Week 6

at TB · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only

38.8Projection · rush + rec yards

35.5Line · consensus

+3.3Gap

Average · last 5 games 40.2

Average miss 27.7 yards · NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Rush + Rec Yards	38.8	35.5	+3.3
Rushing Yards	29.1	22.5	+6.6
Receiving Yards	14.9	9.5	+5.4
Receptions	2.2	1.5	+0.7

Recent rush + rec yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

57.1Average rush + rec yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 35.5 in 8 of 10 · past results, not odds

Nov 9

100

Nov 16

Nov 24

Nov 30

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 3

Sep 13

Sep 20

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±27.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Sep 20 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Rico Dowdle rush + rec yards by game
Date	Opponent	RUSH+REC
Sep 20	@ NE	44
Sep 13	vs ATL	21
Jan 3	@ TB · 2025	30
Dec 28	vs SEA · 2025	63
Dec 21	vs TB · 2025	43
Dec 14	@ NO · 2025	54
Nov 30	vs LAR · 2025	79
Nov 24	@ SF · 2025	74
Nov 16	@ ATL · 2025	100
Nov 9	vs NO · 2025	63

Rico Dowdle’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of PIT vs TB

Opponent: TB
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: TB allowed the 13th-most scrimmage yards to RBs in 2025 128.9 yards/game · 13th of 32
Against TB: 36.5 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample

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Rush + Rec Yards · Rico Dowdle

Rush + Rec Yards · line 35.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 35.5	Under 35.5
CourtsideOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−112Best	−114
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−112Best	−114
FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−115	−113Best
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−115	−115
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−115	−115
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−125	−120

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Rico Dowdle

Questions to ask Explorer about Rico Dowdle, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL rush + rec yards model · 45 graded projections

27.7 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 38.8 rush + rec yards against TB in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Rico Dowdle has averaged 40.2 yards over his last 5 games, 32.5 yards per game this season (2026), and 36.5 yards across 2 games against TB; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Rico Dowdle’s rush + rec yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+3.3 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our rush + rec yards projection and the actual result, over 45 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Rico Dowdle’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's rush + rec yards projection for Rico Dowdle vs TB?

StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 38.8 yards rush + rec yards against TB in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Rico Dowdle performed in rush + rec yards recently?

Rico Dowdle has averaged 40.2 yards over his last 5 games, 32.5 yards per game this season (2026), and 36.5 yards across 2 games against TB. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many rush + rec yards did Rico Dowdle have in his last game?

Rico Dowdle had 44 yards rush + rec yards in his most recent game vs NE. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's rush + rec yards projections?

Across 45 completed rush + rec yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 27.7 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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