Receiving Yards · Week 6
Projection only
14.9Projection · receiving yards
9.5Line · consensus
+5.4Gap
Average · last 5 games 13.2
Average miss 22.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections · Updated Oct 16
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Projections & lines
Measured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving Yards | 14.9 | 9.5 | +5.4 |
| Rushing Yards | 29.1 | 22.5 | +6.6 |
| Rush + Rec Yards | 38.8 | 35.5 | +3.3 |
| Receptions | 2.2 | 1.5 | +0.7 |
Recent receiving yards
19.3Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 9.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds
Current through Sep 20 · ● landed over · ○ did not
Full game log
| Date | Opponent | REC YDS |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | @ NE | 22 |
| Sep 13 | vs ATL | 6 |
| Jan 3 | @ TB · 2025 | 20 |
| Dec 28 | vs SEA · 2025 | 4 |
| Dec 21 | vs TB · 2025 | 14 |
| Dec 14 | @ NO · 2025 | 5 |
| Nov 30 | vs LAR · 2025 | 21 |
| Nov 24 | @ SF · 2025 | 36 |
| Nov 16 | @ ATL · 2025 | 55 |
| Nov 9 | vs NO · 2025 | 10 |
This matchup
- Opponent
- TB
- Kickoff
- Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- TB allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to RBs in 2025 50.1 yards/game · 1st of 32
- Against TB
- 17 yards a game 2 previous meetings · small sample
Compare prices
Receiving Yards · line 9.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.
| Book | Over 9.5 | Under 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −110Best | −114Best |
| FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −114 | −114Best |
| Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −115 | −115 |
| Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET | −115 | −115 |
| Shown, never used as our price | ||
| FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET | −115 | −125 |
Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.
Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.
About these books
Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Rico Dowdle, answered here:
Model accuracy
NFL receiving-yard model · 145 graded projections
22.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
90 of 145 within 25 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 14.9 receiving yards against TB in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Rico Dowdle has averaged 13.2 yards over his last 5 games, 14 yards per game this season (2026), and 17 yards across 2 games against TB; the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Rico Dowdle’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+5.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 145 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Rico Dowdle’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receiving yards projection for Rico Dowdle vs TB?
StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 14.9 yards receiving yards against TB in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.
How has Rico Dowdle performed in receiving yards recently?
Rico Dowdle has averaged 13.2 yards over his last 5 games, 14 yards per game this season (2026), and 17 yards across 2 games against TB. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.
How many receiving yards did Rico Dowdle have in his last game?
Rico Dowdle had 22 yards receiving yards in his most recent game vs NE. The full game log on the page has the rest.
How accurate are StatIQ's receiving yards projections?
Across 145 completed receiving yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 22.8 yards of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.
Next
The rest of PIT vs TB
211.4Projection · pass yds
173.2Projection · pass yds
85.6Projection · rush+rec
84.8Projection · rush+rec
54.3Projection · rec yds
43.8Projection · rec yds
36.9Projection · rec yds
35.9Projection · rush+rec