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Rico Dowdle Projections

PIT · RB · #13

Next game at TB · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets
RECRUSH YDSREC YDSRUSH+REC
Receptions · Week 6

at TB · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only
2.2Projection · receptions
1.5Line · consensus
+0.7Gap

Average · last 5 games 2.6

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Receptions2.21.5+0.7
Rushing Yards29.122.5+6.6
Receiving Yards14.99.5+5.4
Rush + Rec Yards38.835.5+3.3

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

2.8Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 1.5 in 9 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Sep 20 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log
Rico Dowdle receptions by game
DateOpponentREC
Sep 20@ NE2
Sep 13vs ATL2
Jan 3@ TB · 20252
Dec 28vs SEA · 20253
Dec 21vs TB · 20254
Dec 14@ NO · 20251
Nov 30vs LAR · 20252
Nov 24@ SF · 20254
Nov 16@ ATL · 20255
Nov 9vs NO · 20253

Rico Dowdle’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of PIT vs TB
Opponent
TB
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability
Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense
TB allowed the 9th-most receptions to RBs in 2025 4.6/game · 9th of 32
Against TB
3 a game 2 previous meetings · small sample

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Receptions · Rico Dowdle

Receptions · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 1.5Under 1.5
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−141+111Best
FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−144+108
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−140Best+110
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−140Best+110
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−145+100

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Rico Dowdle

Questions to ask Explorer about Rico Dowdle, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

01.520
74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 2.2 receptions against TB in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Rico Dowdle has averaged 2.6 over his last 5 games, 2 per game this season (2026), and 3 across 2 games against TB; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection
StatIQ’s single number for Rico Dowdle’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line
The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap
Projection minus the line (+0.7 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual
Rico Dowdle’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Rico Dowdle vs TB?

StatIQ projects Rico Dowdle for 2.2 receptions against TB in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Rico Dowdle performed in receptions recently?

Rico Dowdle has averaged 2.6 over his last 5 games, 2 per game this season (2026), and 3 across 2 games against TB. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did Rico Dowdle have in his last game?

Rico Dowdle had 2 receptions in his most recent game vs NE. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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