Josh Cuevas receiving yards projection vs the line

BAL · TE · #85

Next game vs JAX · Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET

18.9StatIQ projection · receiving yards

7.5Line · consensus

+11.4Gap

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Projections & lines

2 markets

Average miss 21.7 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 479 graded projections · Updated Nov 4

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	18.9	7.5	+11.4
Receptions	1.8	1.5	+0.3

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

16.8Average receiving yards, last 8 (8 games)Over 7.5 in 5 of 8 · past results, not odds

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Nov 1

Actual Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.7 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 8 games
Game	REC YDS	REC
Nov 1, 2026at BUF	15	1
Oct 25, 2026vs CIN	35	2
Oct 18, 2026at CLE	44	4
Oct 11, 2026at ATL	26	2
Oct 4, 2026vs TEN	0	0
Sep 27, 2026vs DAL	14	1
Sep 20, 2026vs NO	0	0
Sep 13, 2026at IND	0	0
Average · last 8 games	16.8	1.3

Stats and game log: receptions

Josh Cuevas’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 479 graded projections

21.7 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 479 within 25 yards

326 of 479 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Josh Cuevas has averaged 24 yards over his last 5 games and 16.8 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Josh Cuevas’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+11.4 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 479 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Josh Cuevas’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of BAL vs JAX

Opponent: JAX
Kickoff: Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: JAX allowed the 11th-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 59.1 yards/game · 11th of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Josh Cuevas

Receiving Yards · line 7.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −115 · Under −115.

Prices as of Nov 4, 7:13 PM ET.

Research

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