Joe Fagnano passing yards projection vs the line
BAL · QB · #12
Next game vs JAX · Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
More
Projections & lines
Average miss 58.2 yards · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections · Updated Nov 4
Compare pricesMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 162.0 | 158.5 | +3.5 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.2 |
Recent passing yards
91.0Average passing yards, last 1 (1 game)Over 158.5 in 0 of 1 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | PASS YDS | PASS TD |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at BUF | – | – |
| Average · last 1 game | – | – |
Fewer than 3 regular-season games with a passing yards value are logged for Joe Fagnano, so no recent-form figure is drawn for this stat.
Fewer than 3 regular-season games with a passing touchdowns value are logged for Joe Fagnano, so no recent-form figure is drawn for this stat.
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL passing-yard model · 92 graded projections
58.2 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)
40 of 92 within 45 yards
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Joe Fagnano has averaged 91 yards over his last 1 game and 91 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Joe Fagnano’s passing yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+3.5 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our passing yards projection and the actual result, over 92 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Joe Fagnano’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- JAX
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- JAX allowed the 14th-most passing yards to QBs in 2025 231.4 yards/game · 14th of 32
- On the road
- 91 yards a game 2026 season · 1 game
Compare prices
Passing Yards · line 158.5.
No eligible book is pricing this market at the line right now, so there is no per-book ladder for anyone. The middle price across the books that quote it, none eligible for Best: Over −119 · Under −115.
Prices as of Nov 4, 7:13 PM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Joe Fagnano, answered here:
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