Joe Fagnano passing touchdowns projection vs the line
BAL · QB · #12
Next game vs JAX · Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
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Projections & lines
Average miss 0.9 · NFL passing-touchdown model · 91 graded projections · Updated Nov 4
Compare prices · 9 books quotedMeasured, not bet
NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.
| Market | Projection | Line | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Touchdowns | 0.7 | 0.5 | +0.2 |
| Passing Yards | 162.0 | 158.5 | +3.5 |
Recent passing touchdowns
0.0Average passing touchdowns, last 1 (1 game)Over 0.5 in 0 of 1 · past results, not odds
Current through Nov 1 · ● landed over · ○ did not
| Game | PASS TD | PASS YDS |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026at BUF | – | – |
| Average · last 1 game | – | – |
Fewer than 3 regular-season games with a passing touchdowns value are logged for Joe Fagnano, so no recent-form figure is drawn for this stat.
Fewer than 3 regular-season games with a passing yards value are logged for Joe Fagnano, so no recent-form figure is drawn for this stat.
How to read this
Model accuracy · NFL passing-touchdown model · 91 graded projections
0.9average miss (mean absolute error)
Neither number is a range for this game.
How this is calculated
For context, Joe Fagnano has averaged 0 over his last 1 game and 0 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.
- Projection
- StatIQ’s single number for Joe Fagnano’s passing touchdowns in this game: not a range and not a pick.
- Line
- The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
- Gap
- Projection minus the line (+0.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
- Average miss
- The average miss is the average distance between our passing touchdowns projection and the actual result, over 91 completed projections across all players this season.
- Actual
- Joe Fagnano’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.
This matchup
- Opponent
- JAX
- Kickoff
- Thu, Nov 5, 8:15 PM ET
- Availability
- Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
- Opponent defense
- JAX allowed the 16th-most passing touchdowns to QBs in 2025 1.5/game · 16th of 32
- On the road
- 0 a game 2026 season · 1 game
Compare prices
Passing Touchdowns · line 0.5.
9 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.
The middle price across books: Over −125 · Under −106.
Prices as of Nov 4, 7:13 PM ET.
Research
Questions to ask Explorer about Joe Fagnano, answered here:
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