Isaiah Likely receiving yards projection vs the line

NYG · TE · #9

Next game at PHI · Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET

38.3StatIQ projection · receiving yards

44.5Line · consensus

−6.2Gap

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Projections & lines

3 markets

Average miss 21.8 yards · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections · Updated Nov 6

Compare prices · 5 books quoted

Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receiving Yards	38.3	44.5	−6.2
Rush + Rec Yards	48.3	No line yet	–
Receptions	4.0	4.5	−0.5

Recent receiving yards

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

45.4Average receiving yards, last 10 (10 games)Over 44.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 21

Dec 27

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 21

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Oct 18

Oct 25

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±21.8 yards around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 25 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Last 10 games
Game	REC YDS	RUSH+REC	REC
Oct 25, 2026at HOU	12	12	2
Oct 18, 2026vs NO	99	99	6
Oct 11, 2026at WSH	94	94	11
Oct 4, 2026vs ARI	66	66	7
Sep 27, 2026vs TEN	13	13	2
Sep 21, 2026at LAR	33	33	5
Sep 13, 2026vs DAL	78	78	8
Jan 4, 2026at PIT	32	32	2
Dec 27, 2025at GB	27	27	3
Dec 21, 2025vs NE	0	0	0
Average · last 10 games	45.4	45.4	4.6

RUSH+REC: Early projection · no line posted yet

Stats and game log: receptions

Isaiah Likely’s last 5 games on one page

How to read this

Model accuracy · NFL receiving-yard model · 481 graded projections

21.8 yardsaverage miss (mean absolute error)

326 of 481 within 25 yards

326 of 481 landed within 25 yards (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

For context, Isaiah Likely has averaged 56.8 yards over his last 5 games and 56.4 yards per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (−6.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receiving yards projection and the actual result, over 481 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Isaiah Likely’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

This matchup

The rest of NYG vs PHI

Opponent: PHI
Kickoff: Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: PHI allowed the 32nd-most receiving yards to TEs in 2025 29.8 yards/game · 32nd of 32

Compare prices

Receiving Yards · Isaiah Likely

Receiving Yards · line 44.5.

5 books have a price on this market. Members see each book’s price side by side, with the best price on each side marked.

The middle price across books: Over −120 · Under −112.

Prices as of Nov 6, 3:13 AM ET.

Research

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