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Caleb Williams Projections

CHI · QB · #18

Next game at ATL · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

2 markets
PASS TDPASS YDS
Passing Touchdowns · Week 6

at ATL · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only
1.7Projection · passing touchdowns
1.5Line · consensus
+0.2Gap

Average · last 5 games 1.6

Average miss 0.8 · NFL passing-touchdown model · 28 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

MarketProjectionLineGap
Passing Touchdowns1.71.5+0.2
Passing Yards214.3229.5−15.2

Recent passing touchdowns

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

1.6Average passing touchdowns, last 10 (10 games)Over 1.5 in 7 of 10 · past results, not odds

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±0.8 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±0.8 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Sep 20 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log
Caleb Williams passing touchdowns by game
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 20vs MIN0
Sep 13@ CAR2
Jan 4vs DET · 20252
Dec 28@ SF · 20252
Dec 20vs GB · 20252
Dec 14vs CLE · 20252
Dec 7@ GB · 20252
Nov 28@ PHI · 20251
Nov 23vs PIT · 20253
Nov 16@ MIN · 20250

Caleb Williams’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of ATL vs CHI
Opponent
ATL
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability
Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense
ATL allowed the 13th-most passing touchdowns to QBs in 2025 1.6/game · 13th of 32

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Passing Touchdowns · Caleb Williams

Passing Touchdowns · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

BookOver 1.5Under 1.5
Bally BetOct 16, 7:09 AM ET−167–
BetMGMOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−155+115
betPARXOct 16, 7:08 AM ET−167+128Best
BetRiversOct 16, 7:09 AM ET−167+128Best
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−160+125
ESPN BETOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−160+125
Fanatics SportsbookOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−160+120
FanDuelOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−152Best+114
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−155+120
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:10 AM ET−155+120
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:11 AM ET−165+110

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Caleb Williams

Questions to ask Explorer about Caleb Williams, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL passing-touchdown model · 28 graded projections

0.8average miss (mean absolute error)

05

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Caleb Williams for 1.7 passing touchdowns against ATL in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Caleb Williams has averaged 1.6 over his last 5 games and 1 per game this season (2026); the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection
StatIQ’s single number for Caleb Williams’s passing touchdowns in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line
The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap
Projection minus the line (+0.2 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss
The average miss is the average distance between our passing touchdowns projection and the actual result, over 28 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual
Caleb Williams’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for Caleb Williams vs ATL?

StatIQ projects Caleb Williams for 1.7 passing touchdowns against ATL in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Caleb Williams performed in passing touchdowns recently?

Caleb Williams has averaged 1.6 over his last 5 games and 1 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many passing touchdowns did Caleb Williams have in his last game?

Caleb Williams had 0 passing touchdowns in his most recent game vs MIN. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 28 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 0.8 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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