Aaron Nola Prop Projections
Philadelphia Phillies · SP · MLB · Outs Recorded, Strikeouts — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.
Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself
How often Outs Recorded cleared the over 10.5 — pick a split:
9/1090% cleared overavg 16.6
09-26vs TB3✗
09-23vs MIL18✓
09-17@ NYM21✓
09-11@ ATL19✓
09-06vs ATL21✓
09-01@ ARI15✓
08-26@ SEA18✓
08-19vs MIA21✓
08-13vs MIN15✓
08-08vs TOR15✓
Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.
Tonight’s projections
Outs Recorded16.2 we project
Strikeouts4.5 we project
Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged
No graded projections yet.
Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.
Full game log — via ESPN
| Date | Opp | Result | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | K | GB | FB | P | TBF | GSC | Dec | Rel | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 | vs TB | L 12-1 | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 33.0 | L(7-12) | - | 4.67 |
| 09-23 | vs MIL | L 4-1 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 88 | 23 | 55.0 | L(7-11) | - | 4.54 |
| 09-17 | @ NYM | W 3-0 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 81 | 24 | 72.0 | W(7-10) | - | 4.49 |
| 09-11 | @ ATL | L 6-5 F/11 | 6.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 101 | 27 | 53.0 | - | - | 4.69 |
| 09-06 | vs ATL | L 5-4 | 7.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 93 | 25 | 69.0 | - | - | 4.76 |
| 09-01 | @ ARI | W 2-1 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 104 | 22 | 55.0 | W(6-10) | - | 4.93 |
| 08-26 | @ SEA | L 4-1 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 92 | 23 | 62.0 | L(5-10) | - | 5.03 |
| 08-19 | vs MIA | W 4-1 | 7.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 100 | 26 | 71.0 | W(5-9) | - | 5.12 |
| 08-13 | vs MIN | W 7-1 | 5.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 97 | 23 | 59.0 | W(4-9) | - | 5.33 |
| 08-08 | vs TOR | L 7-5 F/11 | 5.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 97 | 22 | 53.0 | - | - | 5.47 |
| 08-03 | vs WSH | W 6-3 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 97 | 24 | 51.0 | - | - | 5.55 |
| 07-28 | @ MIA | L 1-0 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 93 | 23 | 56.0 | L(3-9) | - | 5.61 |
| 07-22 | vs LAD | L 9-5 | 5.1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 85 | 23 | 37.0 | L(3-8) | - | 5.82 |
| 07-16 | vs NYM | L 4-1 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 97 | 27 | 50.0 | L(3-7) | - | 5.68 |
| 07-10 | @ DET | L 10-2 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 84 | 20 | 59.0 | - | - | 5.75 |
| 07-05 | @ KC | L 5-2 | 7.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 98 | 28 | 58.0 | L(3-6) | - | 5.87 |
| 06-29 | vs PIT | L 11-7 | 4.1 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 86 | 23 | 20.0 | L(3-5) | - | 6.04 |
| 06-24 | @ WSH | W 5-4 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 86 | 21 | 56.0 | - | - | 5.58 |
| 06-18 | vs NYM | L 6-4 | 5.0 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 97 | 24 | 48.0 | - | - | 5.71 |
| 06-13 | @ MIL | W 9-8 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 85 | 22 | 41.0 | - | - | 5.86 |