StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Brandon Marsh

Philadelphia Phillies · LF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

7/1070% cleared underavg 0.3
09-20@ NYM1
09-19@ NYM0
09-18@ NYM0
09-17@ NYM1
09-16@ WSH0
09-13@ ATL0
09-12@ ATL0
09-11@ ATL0
09-10vs HOU0
09-09vs HOU1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.6 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.2 we project
Total Bases0.8 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Total Bases12±0.8
Hits6±0.4

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-13Total Bases0.80+0.8
09-12Total Bases0.80+0.8
09-10Hits0.60+0.6
09-09Hits0.61−0.4
09-08Hits0.61−0.4
09-07Hits0.61−0.4
09-02Total Bases1.00+1.0
08-31Total Bases1.20+1.2
08-23Total Bases1.41+0.4
08-18Hits0.91−0.1

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ NYMW 7-2411000000300.260.304.405.709
09-19@ NYML 10-3200000000100.260.305.406.711
09-18@ NYML 6-3100000000000.261.306.408.714
09-17@ NYMW 3-0311000000100.262.306.409.715
09-16@ WSHW 3-0400000000100.261.306.409.715
09-13@ ATLW 9-4210000000000.264.308.412.721
09-12@ ATLL 12-2300000000000.265.310.414.724
09-11@ ATLL 6-5 F/11100000000000.266.311.417.728
09-10vs HOUL 2-1300000000200.267.312.418.729
09-09vs HOUW 11-7201000000000.268.314.420.734
09-08vs HOUL 6-5301100100100.267.313.420.733
09-07vs ATLW 1-0301000000000.267.313.418.731
09-06vs ATLL 5-4200000000000.267.313.419.731
09-04vs ATLL 5-2100000000000.268.314.421.734
09-02@ ARIL 1-0300000000100.268.315.421.736
09-02@ ARIW 7-1200000000000.270.316.424.740
09-01@ ARIW 2-1400000000100.271.318.426.743
08-30@ LAAW 5-2101000100000.274.320.429.750
08-30@ LAAW 4-2 F/10301000110000.272.319.428.747
08-29@ LAAW 5-3100000000100.272.317.429.746