StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Josh Allen Projections

BUF · QB · #17
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs NE
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
233.3passing yards projected vs NE
Season average 262 · Last five 235.6
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 62.8 yards of the result
Recent passing yards
094187281374334HOU248DET204LACStatIQ projection 233.3
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS YDS
Sep 27, 2026vs vs LAC204
Sep 18, 2026vs vs DET248
Sep 13, 2026@ @ HOU334
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Josh Allen
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How has Josh Allen done against NE?223 yards per game2 games vs NEExplore this question

Projection context: Josh Allen, 233.3 passing yards

StatIQ projects Josh Allen for 233.3 passing yards against NE in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Josh Allen has averaged 235.6 yards over his last 5 games, 262 yards per game this season (2026), and 223 yards across 2 games against NE. That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 89 completed passing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 62.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Josh Allen’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Yards track record
62.8yards
average projection miss
45 within
89 completed passing yards projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
NE
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
235.6 yards over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing yards projection for Josh Allen vs NE?

StatIQ projects Josh Allen for 233.3 yards passing yards against NE in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Josh Allen performed in passing yards recently?

Josh Allen has averaged 235.6 yards over his last 5 games, 262 yards per game this season (2026), and 223 yards across 2 games against NE. That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing yards projections?

Across 89 completed passing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 62.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of BUF vs NE
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