NFL — 2026 forward test MEASUREMENT ONLY
A rule we wrote down before the season, published before kickoff, and graded in public. We are not telling you to bet any of it.
This is a pre-registered test, not a betting board.
Before the 2026 season we wrote one rule down and froze it: on six NFL player-prop markets, flag the under when our projection lands 10–20% below the line, in weeks 1–9 only. Then we stopped touching it. Every row below was logged before kickoff and graded afterwards — win or lose.
Every row carries play = 0 . Nothing on this page is a recommendation, and we make no claim about returns. We are finding out in public, with the losses attached, whether a rule that looked real in a backtest survives a season it has never seen. Most of the ones we have tested did not.
- The rule was fixed in advance. The band, the side, the six markets and the week window were written down before Week 1 and cannot change mid-season. Changing any of them would void the test, so we won’t.
- The model is frozen. Every projection comes from one committed artifact trained on data through 2025, asked and never retrained. Its hash is published below.
- The record is append-only. A graded row never disappears. Losses, pushes and DNPs sit in the same tables, at the same weight, as wins.
Frozen model artifact not published yet
That hash is the point. It is stamped on every board we publish, so anyone can check that the model which produced Week 1’s rows is byte-for-byte the model that produced Week 9’s. A mid-season retrain would change it, and would void this test.
The record so far
Two pre-registered arms over the same season. Arm A is the broad control — all six markets. Arm B is the narrower mechanism it was supposed to be about. Reporting both is the point: if only the narrow one works, that is much weaker evidence than it looks.
Rates stay hidden until 20 graded decisions (0 so far). Below that a hit rate is noise wearing a number’s clothes — and it cuts both ways.
Rates stay hidden until 20 graded decisions (0 so far). Below that a hit rate is noise wearing a number’s clothes — and it cuts both ways.
Units are a measurement at the price we logged, on a flat 1-unit basis. No bet was placed on any of it. A pick can appear in both arms; the two records overlap by design and must not be added together.
This week
The 2026 forward test starts in Week 1.
Nothing has been published yet — Week 1 kicks off in September 2026. In the days before each week the publisher pulls the six frozen markets, asks the frozen model for a projection on every slate player it has history for, and logs every row that clears the band, timestamped, before kickoff.
Preseason and exhibitions cannot reach this board: an event has to be a real club matchup and map onto a scheduled regular-season game before it is priced at all. So an empty board in August is the system working, not a gap.
What you will see in September is exactly what you see now: a rule written down in advance, a model hash that proves it wasn’t tuned, and whatever the season does to it.
Projections are estimates with variance, not facts. StatIQ tracks and grades projections; it never places bets, and this board recommends none. Method and sources: how we do this.