StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Josh Allen Projections

BUF · QB · #17
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs NE
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
1.7passing touchdowns projected vs NE
Season average 1.7 · Last five 1
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1 of the result
Recent passing touchdowns
012332HOU3DET0LACStatIQ projection 1.7
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS TD
Sep 27, 2026vs vs LAC0
Sep 18, 2026vs vs DET3
Sep 13, 2026@ @ HOU2
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Josh Allen
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How has Josh Allen done against NE?2.5 per game2 games vs NEExplore this question

Projection context: Josh Allen, 1.7 passing touchdowns

StatIQ projects Josh Allen for 1.7 passing touchdowns against NE in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Josh Allen has averaged 1 over his last 5 games, 1.7 per game this season (2026), and 2.5 across 2 games against NE. That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Josh Allen’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Touchdowns track record
1
average projection miss
91 completed passing touchdowns projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
NE
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
1 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing touchdowns projection for Josh Allen vs NE?

StatIQ projects Josh Allen for 1.7 passing touchdowns against NE in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Josh Allen performed in passing touchdowns recently?

Josh Allen has averaged 1 over his last 5 games, 1.7 per game this season (2026), and 2.5 across 2 games against NE. That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing touchdowns projections?

Across 91 completed passing touchdowns projections, StatIQ has landed within 1 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of BUF vs NE
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