StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Wilyer Abreu

Boston Red Sox · RF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared overavg 0.7
09-19@ TB0
09-18@ TB0
09-18@ TEX1
09-17@ TEX0
09-16@ TEX0
09-13vs KC1
09-12vs KC1
09-11vs KC2
09-09vs LAA1
09-08vs LAA1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.8 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.4 we project
Total Bases1.4 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits8±0.8
Total Bases4±1.8

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-17Hits0.91−0.1
09-12Hits1.01+0.0
09-11Hits0.92−1.1
09-02Hits1.03−2.0
08-26Hits0.90+0.9
08-23Total Bases1.90+1.9
08-18Hits1.10+1.1
08-16Hits1.10+1.1
07-30Hits0.71−0.3
07-22Total Bases2.10+2.1

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-19@ TBL 2-1200000020200.251.332.453.785
09-18@ TBW 4-2500000000300.252.331.455.785
09-18@ TEXW 4-3311000010000.254.333.459.792
09-17@ TEXL 7-3410000000000.254.332.459.792
09-16@ TEXL 4-2400000000300.255.334.463.797
09-13vs KCW 4-1401000000100.257.336.466.802
09-12vs KCW 5-1401100200000.257.337.467.804
09-11vs KCL 3-2402100100000.257.338.467.805
09-09vs LAAL 6-4311001110000.256.337.465.802
09-08vs LAAL 6-1301000010000.255.335.460.796
09-07vs LAAW 5-2300000010100.255.334.461.795
09-05@ BALW 5-0501000000100.256.335.464.799
09-04@ BALW 1-0200000020100.257.336.466.802
09-03@ BALW 6-5400000000200.258.335.468.803
09-02vs SEAL 8-3413200000000.260.337.471.809
09-01vs SEAL 9-6512100000100.256.334.465.800
08-31vs SEAW 9-8 F/10500000000200.254.334.464.798
08-30@ NYYL 16-1302000010000.257.337.469.805
08-29@ NYYL 9-2311100001100.254.334.467.801
08-29@ NYYW 6-0511001100100.254.333.466.799