StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Samuel Basallo

Baltimore Orioles · C · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared underavg 0.6
09-20vs MIL0
09-19vs MIL0
09-18vs MIL1
09-16@ NYM2
09-14@ NYM0
09-13@ TOR0
09-12@ TOR0
09-11@ TOR1
09-08vs CLE0
09-07vs CLE2

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.6 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.4 we project
Total Bases0.9 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits5±0.7
Total Bases1±1

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-16Hits0.62−1.4
09-13Hits0.60+0.6
09-11Hits0.61−0.4
09-08Hits0.60+0.6
09-05Total Bases0.90+0.9
08-29Hits0.60+0.6

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs MILL 3-0300000010100.223.292.408.700
09-19vs MILL 1-0300000000000.225.293.411.704
09-18vs MILL 6-5 F/10401000100100.227.295.415.710
09-16@ NYMW 7-1412001200100.227.296.417.713
09-14@ NYMW 2-1200000000100.224.294.407.701
09-13@ TORL 8-1300000000100.225.296.409.705
09-12@ TORL 7-3100000000100.227.298.413.711
09-11@ TORW 7-4311000010000.228.299.414.713
09-08vs CLEL 9-5400000100200.227.296.415.711
09-07vs CLEW 6-4322000001100.230.300.420.720
09-05vs BOSL 5-0400000000000.226.295.418.712
09-04vs BOSL 1-0100000000000.228.298.423.721
09-03vs BOSL 6-5100000000000.229.299.424.723
09-02@ COLL 6-5 F/11401000110000.230.300.425.725
09-02@ COLL 4-2200000011100.230.298.428.726
09-01@ COLW 2-1301100110100.231.296.430.726
08-30@ ATHW 5-3400000000000.230.294.428.722
08-27@ STLL 7-5400000000100.233.297.434.731
08-26@ STLW 8-7412000010200.236.301.439.740
08-25@ STLW 13-1500000000400.233.296.439.735