StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Ryan Vilade

Tampa Bay Rays · RF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

7/1070% cleared underavg 0.3
09-20vs BOS0
09-18vs BOS1
09-17vs ATH0
09-16vs ATH1
09-13vs HOU0
09-12vs HOU0
09-10@ ATL1
09-06@ TEX0
09-05@ TEX0
09-05@ TEX0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.5 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.3 we project
Total Bases0.8 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits3±0.6
Total Bases1±2.9

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-20Hits0.50+0.5
09-17Hits0.60+0.6
09-01Total Bases1.14−2.9
08-10Hits0.60+0.6

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs BOSW 5-1310000001100.256.331.454.784
09-18vs BOSL 4-2401000010200.259.332.460.792
09-17vs ATHW 10-1110000011100.259.331.464.794
09-16vs ATHW 4-3401000100200.260.327.466.792
09-13vs HOUW 14-4100000000100.260.328.470.798
09-12vs HOUW 3-2000000010000.262.329.472.801
09-10@ ATLL 3-1401000000200.262.326.472.798
09-06@ TEXL 8-6200000020100.262.328.476.804
09-05@ TEXW 6-3 F/10100000000100.264.325.481.805
09-05@ TEXW 7-6100000000000.266.326.483.809
09-01vs NYMW 6-2503010200000.267.328.485.813
08-30vs SDW 5-4 F/11200000010000.259.321.473.794
08-29vs SDW 7-6100000000100.261.321.477.799
08-28vs SDW 9-4100000000000.263.323.480.803
08-24@ DETW 4-1311000000000.264.324.482.806
08-22@ BALL 3-2 F/10100000000100.263.324.485.809
08-21@ BALL 5-3402000000101.264.326.487.813
08-19vs TORW 7-6300000000200.259.322.487.809
08-18vs TORL 10-5312000000000.263.327.495.822
08-17vs BALW 7-6311001110100.257.322.492.814