StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Nick Sogard

Boston Red Sox · 2B · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

5/1050% cleared overavg 0.6
09-20@ TB0
09-19@ TB1
09-18@ TB0
09-18@ TEX0
09-17@ TEX1
09-16@ TEX1
09-13vs KC0
09-12vs KC2
09-11vs KC0
09-09vs LAA1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.8 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.4 we project
Total Bases1.3 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits9±0.9
Total Bases1±0

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-11Hits0.90+0.9
08-31Hits1.02−1.0
08-30Hits1.11+0.1
08-19Hits1.02−1.0
08-18Hits0.92−1.1
08-16Hits0.90+0.9
08-14Hits0.92−1.1
08-06Total Bases1.01+0.0
08-05Hits0.80+0.8
08-01Hits0.90+0.9

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ TBL 5-1400000000200.250.340.389.729
09-19@ TBL 2-1401000000100.255.346.396.742
09-18@ TBW 4-2500000000200.255.347.399.746
09-18@ TEXW 4-3400000000000.261.355.409.764
09-17@ TEXL 7-3201000000000.266.361.417.778
09-16@ TEXL 4-2311001200100.264.360.416.776
09-13vs KCW 4-1300000010100.263.360.402.762
09-12vs KCW 5-1312200101001.267.362.408.770
09-11vs KCL 3-2400000000100.261.355.394.748
09-09vs LAAL 6-4401000000200.266.362.402.764
09-08vs LAAL 6-1402000100200.267.364.406.769
09-06@ BALW 3-1400000000300.261.361.403.764
09-05@ BALW 5-0412000010000.267.368.413.781
09-04@ BALW 1-0300000010000.262.362.411.773
09-03@ BALW 6-5311001210000.267.365.418.783
09-02vs SEAL 8-3400000000100.265.362.401.763
09-01vs SEAL 9-6301000000100.272.370.411.781
08-31vs SEAW 9-8 F/10422100000000.271.370.413.783
08-30@ NYYL 16-1301000100200.265.367.404.771
08-29@ NYYL 9-2411001100100.264.368.405.773