StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Nick Fortes

Tampa Bay Rays · C · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

4/1040% cleared underavg 0.7
09-20vs BOS0
09-18vs BOS1
09-16vs ATH1
09-15vs ATH0
09-13vs HOU1
09-10@ ATL0
09-06@ TEX1
09-04@ TEX1
09-01vs NYM2
08-30vs SD0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.6 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.3 we project
Total Bases0.9 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits5±0.8
Total Bases2±0.9

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-18Hits0.61−0.4
09-16Total Bases0.82−1.2
09-10Hits0.60+0.6
09-01Hits0.52−1.6
08-30Total Bases0.60+0.6
08-24Hits0.70+0.7
07-29Hits1.00+1.0

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs BOSW 5-1300000000200.264.311.377.688
09-18vs BOSL 4-2101100010000.267.315.381.695
09-16vs ATHW 4-3211100100000.264.310.375.685
09-15vs ATHW 2-1100000000000.263.309.371.679
09-13vs HOUW 14-4311001210000.264.310.372.682
09-10@ ATLL 3-1200000010000.263.307.361.668
09-06@ TEXL 8-6411000100100.265.307.364.671
09-04@ TEXL 6-0201000000100.265.308.366.673
09-01vs NYMW 6-2412100100100.263.306.365.671
08-30vs SDW 5-4 F/11300000000100.260.304.359.662
08-24@ DETW 4-1300000000000.263.307.363.670
08-20vs TORL 5-1300000000100.266.310.367.677
08-17vs BALW 7-6000000000000.269.314.372.685
08-16vs BALL 10-2301000010000.269.314.372.685
08-15vs BALL 4-3 F/10200000000000.268.311.372.683
08-12@ ATHW 12-4000000000000.270.313.375.688
08-11@ ATHW 10-6300000110100.270.313.375.688
08-09@ SEAW 3-2200000000000.273.314.380.694
08-05@ COLW 4-0200000000100.276.317.383.699
08-02vs CHWL 9-1301100010000.278.319.386.705