StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Josh Smith

Toronto Blue Jays · 2B · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

7/1070% cleared underavg 0.4
09-20@ TEX0
09-19@ TEX0
09-19@ TEX0
09-16vs DET1
09-15vs DET0
09-14vs DET0
09-12vs BAL1
09-11vs BAL0
09-09@ ATH0
09-09@ ATH2

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.5 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.2 we project
Total Bases1.0 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits8±0.8
Total Bases1±1.1

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-20Hits0.50+0.5
09-16Hits0.61−0.4
09-11Hits0.60+0.6
09-08Hits0.52−1.5
09-06Hits0.61−0.4
08-10Hits0.51−0.5
08-07Hits0.63−2.4
07-27Hits0.81−0.3
07-26Total Bases1.10+1.1

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ TEXW 7-2200000000100.215.308.338.646
09-19@ TEXL 6-2100000000100.218.311.342.653
09-19@ TEXL 7-1310000010100.219.312.344.656
09-16vs DETW 5-1411100000000.222.313.349.663
09-15vs DETL 10-1300000000100.222.315.346.660
09-14vs DETL 6-5100000010100.225.319.352.671
09-12vs BALW 7-3211000001100.227.317.354.671
09-11vs BALL 7-4200000000100.223.312.352.664
09-09@ ATHL 2-0100000000100.226.315.356.671
09-09@ ATHW 4-2412001100100.227.317.358.675
09-08@ ATHL 6-5100000100000.221.313.337.650
09-06@ KCL 6-1211001100000.222.316.339.656
09-05@ KCW 9-2100000010100.219.314.320.634
09-03@ CLEW 6-3210000030200.220.313.321.634
09-02@ CLEW 11-0211001100000.223.305.325.630
08-19@ TBL 7-6321000010000.220.303.305.608
08-18@ TBW 10-5412001200100.217.298.304.603
08-16vs NYYL 4-3 F/10110000000000.210.294.280.574
08-15vs NYYW 4-1200000000200.212.295.282.578
08-13vs BOSL 7-0100000000000.214.299.286.585