StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Henry Bolte

Athletics · CF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 1.5 — pick a split:

10/10100% cleared underavg 0.8
09-20@ CLE1
09-19@ CLE1
09-18@ CLE0
09-17@ TB1
09-16@ TB1
09-15@ TB1
09-13vs SEA0
09-13vs SEA1
09-12vs SEA1
09-09vs TOR1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.9 we project
Home Runs0.2 we project
RBIs0.3 we project
Total Bases1.5 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Total Bases8±1.3
Hits7±0.9

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-09Hits1.11+0.1
09-07Hits1.11+0.1
09-03Hits1.11+0.1
08-19Hits1.12−0.9
08-15Hits0.93−2.1
08-09Hits0.82−1.2
08-08Total Bases1.04−3.0
08-07Total Bases1.00+1.0
08-06Total Bases1.010.0
08-04Total Bases1.03−2.0

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ CLEL 1-0401000000200.272.357.396.753
09-19@ CLEL 12-6501000100000.273.358.397.755
09-18@ CLEL 5-3210000011100.274.359.400.759
09-17@ TBL 10-1301000010110.275.358.402.760
09-16@ TBL 4-3411001100200.275.357.403.759
09-15@ TBL 2-1411000000300.275.358.396.754
09-13vs SEAW 8-7310000011200.275.359.398.757
09-13vs SEAL 19-1211000010100.277.358.401.759
09-12vs SEAW 6-5 F/10511000000110.276.356.401.757
09-09vs TORW 2-0411001100200.277.358.403.761
09-09vs TORL 4-2402000000200.278.359.397.756
09-08vs TORW 6-5231001130030.275.358.395.753
09-06@ SEAL 2-0401000000210.274.352.386.738
09-06@ SEAW 6-2401100100200.274.353.388.741
09-05@ SEAW 7-6310000020200.274.354.386.741
09-04@ SEAW 7-4412000010000.277.354.390.743
09-02@ TEXW 9-2423002411010.274.350.389.739
09-02@ TEXL 8-5501000010300.268.342.366.708
09-01@ TEXL 8-1400000000100.269.343.368.711
08-30vs BALL 8-5512000000100.273.346.373.719