StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Gunnar Henderson

Baltimore Orioles · SS · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

7/1070% cleared overavg 1
09-20vs MIL0
09-19vs MIL1
09-18vs MIL3
09-16@ NYM0
09-15@ NYM1
09-14@ NYM1
09-13@ TOR1
09-12@ TOR1
09-11@ TOR2
09-08vs CLE0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.9 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.2 we project
Total Bases1.4 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits4±1.7
Total Bases4±1.1

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-20Hits0.90+0.9
09-14Hits0.91−0.1
08-19Total Bases1.42−0.6
08-14Hits0.74−3.3
08-11Hits0.63−2.4
08-10Total Bases1.10+1.1
08-09Total Bases1.20+1.2
08-04Total Bases1.50+1.5

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs MILL 3-0300000001200.223.308.397.705
09-19vs MILL 1-0401100000000.224.308.399.707
09-18vs MILL 6-5 F/10513000000100.224.308.399.707
09-16@ NYMW 7-1400000000100.221.306.397.703
09-15@ NYMW 7-5 F/11501000000400.223.308.400.708
09-14@ NYMW 2-1411001100100.223.309.401.710
09-13@ TORL 8-1201000030100.223.309.397.706
09-12@ TORL 7-3311100010000.222.305.397.702
09-11@ TORW 7-4412000000100.221.304.396.700
09-08vs CLEL 9-5300000010000.219.303.395.698
09-07vs CLEW 6-4501000000100.220.303.397.700
09-06vs BOSL 3-1300000000100.220.304.399.703
09-05vs BOSL 5-0201100020100.222.306.401.706
09-04vs BOSL 1-0401000000100.221.303.399.701
09-03vs BOSL 6-5411000000200.220.303.400.703
09-02@ COLL 6-5 F/11400000010200.220.303.401.704
09-02@ COLL 4-2400000000000.222.304.404.708
09-01@ COLW 2-1401000000000.223.306.407.713
08-30@ ATHW 8-5434012500000.223.307.408.714
08-30@ ATHW 5-3300000020000.217.302.388.690