StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Dylan Beavers

Baltimore Orioles · LF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared underavg 0.7
09-20vs MIL0
09-18vs MIL1
09-16@ NYM0
09-15@ NYM0
09-14@ NYM0
09-13@ TOR2
09-12@ TOR0
09-11@ TOR2
09-09vs CLE2
09-08vs CLE0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.7 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.4 we project
Total Bases1.1 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits4±0.8
Total Bases3±0.8

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-11Hits0.82−1.2
09-03Hits0.80+0.8
08-23Hits0.70+0.7
08-16Hits0.70+0.7
08-07Total Bases0.81−0.2
08-04Total Bases1.10+1.1
07-28Total Bases1.10+1.1

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs MILL 3-0400000000200.234.310.368.678
09-18vs MILL 6-5 F/10511000010100.237.313.373.687
09-16@ NYMW 7-1400000000200.237.313.376.689
09-15@ NYMW 7-5 F/11110000010000.241.317.381.698
09-14@ NYMW 2-1500000000200.241.316.383.699
09-13@ TORL 8-1412100010200.246.321.389.710
09-12@ TORL 7-3500000000200.242.316.384.701
09-11@ TORW 7-4512001300100.246.321.391.713
09-09vs CLEW 9-5512100300000.244.320.380.700
09-08vs CLEL 9-5400000000100.241.319.376.695
09-07vs CLEW 6-4401100100300.244.323.382.705
09-06vs BOSL 3-1100000000100.244.324.380.704
09-05vs BOSL 5-0401000000100.245.325.381.707
09-03vs BOSL 6-5300000010200.245.326.383.710
09-02@ COLL 6-5 F/11501000000000.248.327.388.715
09-02@ COLL 4-2401100000000.249.330.392.722
09-01@ COLW 2-1311100000000.249.331.390.721
08-30@ ATHW 8-5100000000000.248.331.387.717
08-30@ ATHW 5-3411000000200.249.332.388.720
08-29@ ATHW 4-3 F/10301000110000.249.333.391.724