StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Colton Cowser

Baltimore Orioles · CF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

4/1040% cleared underavg 0.9
09-20vs MIL2
09-18vs MIL2
09-16@ NYM1
09-15@ NYM0
09-14@ NYM2
09-13@ TOR0
09-12@ TOR1
09-11@ TOR1
09-08vs CLE0
09-06vs BOS0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.6 we project
Home Runs0.0 we project
RBIs0.2 we project
Total Bases0.8 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits19±0.8
Total Bases7±1.1

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-18Hits0.52−1.6
09-16Hits0.41−0.6
09-14Total Bases0.82−1.2
09-13Hits0.40+0.4
09-11Hits0.51−0.5
09-05Hits0.61−0.4
09-02Hits0.70+0.7
09-01Hits0.70+0.7
08-29Hits0.71−0.3
08-26Hits0.72−1.3

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20vs MILL 3-0402000000200.224.313.367.680
09-18vs MILL 6-5 F/10302000000100.221.311.365.676
09-16@ NYMW 7-1301000010110.217.308.362.670
09-15@ NYMW 7-5 F/11400000000100.216.306.363.669
09-14@ NYMW 2-1402000000100.218.309.367.676
09-13@ TORL 8-1200000000200.215.307.365.673
09-12@ TORL 7-3201000000100.216.309.368.677
09-11@ TORW 7-4311100210210.214.308.367.675
09-08vs CLEL 9-5300000010200.213.306.364.670
09-06vs BOSL 3-1300000000200.215.306.368.674
09-05vs BOSL 5-0101100010000.217.309.371.680
09-02@ COLL 6-5 F/11500000000200.215.305.366.671
09-02@ COLL 4-2400000000200.218.310.372.682
09-01@ COLW 2-1400000100200.221.313.377.690
08-30@ ATHW 8-5400000000200.225.317.382.700
08-30@ ATHW 5-3421001100000.228.321.388.709
08-29@ ATHW 4-3 F/10101100010001.227.322.379.701
08-27@ STLL 7-5301000100100.225.318.373.691
08-26@ STLW 8-7402000010000.223.318.374.692
08-23vs TBL 3-1312101100000.219.314.372.686