StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Caleb Durbin

Boston Red Sox · 3B · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

8/1080% cleared overavg 1.1
09-20@ TB2
09-19@ TB2
09-18@ TB2
09-18@ TEX0
09-17@ TEX0
09-16@ TEX1
09-13vs KC1
09-12vs KC1
09-11vs KC1
09-09vs LAA1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.9 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.3 we project
Total Bases1.3 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits9±0.8
Total Bases2±0.7

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-18Hits0.72−1.3
09-12Total Bases0.91−0.1
09-06Hits0.70+0.7
08-17Hits1.03−2.0
08-10Hits1.10+1.1
08-07Hits1.11+0.1
08-05Hits1.01−0.0
08-01Hits1.10+1.1
07-31Hits1.00+1.0
07-25Total Bases1.40+1.4

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ TBL 5-1402000000100.255.338.389.727
09-19@ TBL 2-1412200000001.253.337.388.725
09-18@ TBW 4-2312000001000.251.336.383.719
09-18@ TEXW 4-3300000010000.248.333.381.714
09-17@ TEXL 7-3210000020010.249.333.384.717
09-16@ TEXL 4-2311000000100.251.332.385.717
09-13vs KCW 4-1121001112010.250.332.386.718
09-12vs KCW 5-1301000100000.248.327.378.705
09-11vs KCL 3-2401000000100.248.327.378.705
09-09vs LAAL 6-4401000000100.248.328.379.707
09-08vs LAAL 6-1200000020000.248.328.380.709
09-07vs LAAW 5-2412100000100.249.327.382.709
09-06@ BALW 3-1210000020100.247.326.379.704
09-04@ BALW 1-0400000000200.248.324.381.705
09-03@ BALW 6-5200000002010.250.327.384.711
09-02vs SEAL 8-3301000010000.251.325.386.711
09-01vs SEAL 9-6400000000100.251.324.386.710
08-31vs SEAW 9-8 F/10211000020000.253.327.390.716
08-30@ NYYL 16-1300000000100.252.323.389.712
08-29@ NYYL 9-2400000000300.253.325.392.717