StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Ben Malgeri

Detroit Tigers · RF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the under 0.5 — pick a split:

8/1080% cleared underavg 0.4
09-19@ CHW0
09-18@ CHW0
09-17@ CHW0
09-15@ TOR1
09-12vs COL0
09-09vs MIN0
09-08vs MIN0
09-07vs MIN0
09-06@ CLE0
09-05@ CLE3

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.5 we project
Home Runs0.0 we project
RBIs0.3 we project
Total Bases0.6 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits8±0.8
Total Bases2±0.8

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-06Total Bases0.70+0.7
09-05Hits0.43−2.6
09-04Hits0.51−0.5
09-01Hits0.31−0.7
08-25Hits0.40+0.4
08-23Total Bases1.00+1.0
08-21Hits0.50+0.5
08-15Hits0.50+0.5
08-13Hits0.51−0.5
08-12Hits0.50+0.5

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-19@ CHWL 3-1210000011100.231.347.346.693
09-18@ CHWW 11-8100000000000.235.342.353.695
09-17@ CHWL 3-1100000000000.238.345.356.701
09-15@ TORW 10-1111000000000.240.347.360.707
09-12vs COLW 11-7110000110100.232.342.354.695
09-09vs MINW 7-2400000000100.235.339.357.696
09-08vs MINL 3-2100000010010.245.351.372.724
09-07vs MINW 5-4100000000100.247.349.376.725
09-06@ CLEL 3-2 F/10300000010210.250.352.380.732
09-05@ CLEW 6-0503100100200.258.356.393.749
09-04@ CLEL 4-3 F/10200000010000.238.343.369.712
09-04@ CLEL 7-6411000200200.244.344.378.722
09-02@ MINW 11-6 F/12422000000220.244.348.385.732
09-01@ MINL 15-2201000000000.230.341.378.719
08-29vs LADW 2-1200000000200.222.337.375.712
08-28vs LADL 2-1400000000200.229.345.386.731
08-25vs TBW 4-1000000000000.242.363.409.772
08-24vs TBL 4-1201000000100.242.363.409.772
08-23@ KCL 11-7400000110210.234.359.406.765
08-22@ KCL 5-2100000010000.250.370.433.803