StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Austin Riley

Atlanta Braves · 3B · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared overavg 0.6
09-19@ HOU1
09-19@ HOU0
09-16@ CHC1
09-15@ CHC0
09-14@ CHC1
09-13vs PHI0
09-12vs PHI1
09-11vs PHI1
09-10vs TB1
09-09vs TB0

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.7 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.4 we project
Total Bases1.2 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits4±0.5
Total Bases3±1.1

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
09-19Hits0.81−0.3
09-14Total Bases1.41+0.4
09-07Hits0.80+0.8
08-29Total Bases1.20+1.2
08-19Hits0.90+0.9
07-23Hits0.91−0.1
07-21Total Bases1.60+1.6

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-19@ HOUW 6-3411000000000.220.292.360.652
09-19@ HOUW 6-2400000000300.220.292.360.653
09-16@ CHCL 8-4401000100200.222.294.363.657
09-15@ CHCW 6-3310000010300.221.295.364.659
09-14@ CHCL 7-3401000000000.223.295.366.661
09-13vs PHIL 9-4300000010100.222.295.367.662
09-12vs PHIW 12-2311000010100.224.296.369.665
09-11vs PHIW 6-5 F/11411001110100.223.294.369.663
09-10vs TBW 3-1311000100100.223.293.364.658
09-09vs TBL 7-2300000000100.222.293.365.658
09-08vs TBL 7-1301000000200.224.295.367.661
09-07@ PHIL 1-0200000001200.223.294.367.661
09-06@ PHIW 5-4401010100000.224.294.368.662
09-05@ PHIL 4-2311001100200.224.294.365.660
09-04@ PHIW 5-2411000100100.223.294.359.654
09-02@ WSHW 9-0402000200001.223.295.360.655
09-01@ WSHL 9-5400000000200.220.293.359.652
08-31vs SFL 7-3402000000000.222.295.362.657
08-30vs COLW 3-2 F/10411100000100.220.294.361.655
08-29vs COLW 2-1200000010010.220.294.360.654