StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
← Projections

Alan Roden

Minnesota Twins · RF · MLB — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Hits cleared the over 0.5 — pick a split:

6/1060% cleared overavg 1.1
09-20@ LAA3
08-27@ ATH1
08-23@ SD2
08-18vs ATL0
08-17vs ATL1
08-12vs BAL3
08-11vs BAL0
08-09@ MIL0
08-08@ MIL0
08-06@ KC1

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Hits0.8 we project
Home Runs0.1 we project
RBIs0.5 we project
Total Bases1.2 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Hits5±0.9
Total Bases1±0.5

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
08-17Hits0.61−0.4
08-12Hits0.43−2.6
08-11Hits0.40+0.4
08-06Hits0.41−0.6
08-04Hits0.50+0.5
07-29Total Bases0.50+0.5

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultABRH2B3BHRRBIBBHBPSOSBCSAVGOBPSLGOPS
09-20@ LAAW 8-0513001400100.278.349.375.724
08-27@ ATHL 7-4301000010000.254.333.313.647
08-23@ SDL 8-1302100000100.250.324.313.637
08-18vs ATLW 4-1300000000100.230.310.279.589
08-17vs ATLW 4-2301000000000.241.324.293.617
08-12vs BALW 7-5313200110000.236.323.291.614
08-11vs BALL 5-2400000100100.192.279.212.490
08-09@ MILL 4-3 F/10200000000100.208.298.229.527
08-08@ MILL 4-3100000000000.217.309.239.548
08-06@ KCW 4-3301100010000.222.315.244.559
08-04@ KCL 8-2100000100000.214.300.214.514
08-02@ SEAL 7-6201000010000.220.313.220.532
08-01@ SEAW 5-3211000010000.205.289.205.494
07-30vs KCW 4-3010000000000.189.262.189.451
07-29vs KCL 4-0300000000100.189.262.189.451
07-28vs KCW 3-2200000000000.206.282.206.488
07-26vs ATHW 11-8100000000100.219.297.219.516
07-25vs ATHW 2-0301000200100.226.306.226.531
07-23@ CLEW 3-1 F/12301000100000.214.303.214.517
07-22@ CLEW 10-6421000010000.200.300.200.500