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14 games with moneylines · NFL · times in ET

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GamesWin probabilities

Game win probabilities

14 games · updated 48m ago

The betting market’s own numbers, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. Not our forecast. Ranked by how certain the favorite is. A rank is the game’s published place among the 75 games priced at publish time across every sport; a game that has started leaves this list but keeps its rank, so the numbers can skip.

  1. 6 of 75NFL
    FavoriteLos Angeles Rams
    88.0%
    fair -736best -750 at BetMGM
    UnderdogArizona Cardinals
    12.0%
    fair +736best +600 at Caesars
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  2. 17 of 75NFL
    FavoriteKansas City Chiefs
    80.0%
    fair -400best -425 at Fanatics
    UnderdogLos Angeles Chargers
    20.0%
    fair +400best +360 at DraftKings
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  3. 20 of 75NFL
    FavoriteSan Francisco 49ers
    79.1%
    fair -379best -400 at BetMGM
    UnderdogWashington Commanders
    20.9%
    fair +379best +330 at DraftKings
    Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  4. 26 of 75NFL
    FavoriteNew England Patriots
    76.0%
    fair -316best -340 at FanDuel
    UnderdogNew York Jets
    24.0%
    fair +316best +275 at DraftKings
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  5. 28 of 75NFL
    FavoriteIndianapolis Colts
    74.9%
    fair -298best -320 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogTennessee Titans
    25.1%
    fair +298best +275 at betPARX
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  6. 42 of 75NFL
    FavoriteBuffalo Bills
    68.8%
    fair -220best -218 at DraftKings
    UnderdogLas Vegas Raiders
    31.2%
    fair +220best +200 at FanDuel
    Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  7. 50 of 75NFL
    FavoriteBaltimore Ravens
    66.0%
    fair -194best -205 at DraftKings
    UnderdogCleveland Browns
    34.0%
    fair +194best +185 at BetRivers
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  8. 54 of 75NFL
    FavoriteCarolina Panthers
    63.3%
    fair -173best -180 at FanDuel
    UnderdogPhiladelphia Eagles
    36.7%
    fair +173best +165 at ESPN BET
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  9. 61 of 75NFL
    FavoriteJacksonville Jaguars
    57.5%
    fair -135best -140 at ESPN BET
    UnderdogHouston Texans
    42.5%
    fair +135best +125 at Hard Rock (OH)
    Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  10. 62 of 75NFL
    FavoritePittsburgh Steelers
    56.9%
    fair -132best -139 at Caesars
    UnderdogTampa Bay Buccaneers
    43.1%
    fair +132best +125 at Hard Rock (OH)
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET20 books priced both sides (18 separate companies)
  11. 67 of 75NFL
    FavoriteChicago Bears
    54.3%
    fair -119best -125 at DraftKings
    UnderdogNew England Patriots
    45.7%
    fair +119best +110 at FanDuel
    Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 PM ET10 books priced both sides
  12. 69 of 75NFL
    FavoriteGreen Bay Packers
    52.3%
    fair -110best -116 at FanDuel
    UnderdogDallas Cowboys
    47.7%
    fair +110best +101 at Caesars
    Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET21 books priced both sides (19 separate companies)
  13. 71 of 75NFL
    FavoriteChicago Bears
    51.7%
    fair -107best -115 at Fanatics
    UnderdogAtlanta Falcons
    48.3%
    fair +107best +104 at FanDuel
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET17 books priced both sides (16 separate companies)
  14. 74 of 75NFL
    FavoriteNew Orleans Saints
    50.7%
    fair -103best -110 at BetRivers
    UnderdogNew York Giants
    49.3%
    fair +103best +100 at ESPN BET
    Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET16 books priced both sides (15 separate companies)
How these numbers are built, and why they are not our forecast

This is what the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. We take every sportsbook’s own two prices on a game, strip its margin , and publish the middle number across books. Then we rank the slate by how certain the favorite is.

It is not our forecast, and we are not claiming to beat it. We have no game-winner model. We built one for UFC and tested it against 2,680 real closing prices over six seasons: the market beat it in every single year. This number is our best available estimate precisely because the game market is efficient. There is no edge being sold here, and anyone telling you they can price a moneyline better than the market owes you the same test.

Useful for: seeing a whole week at a glance, filling in a confidence pool, and checking whether a price you were offered is roughly fair. Not useful for: finding a bet we think wins.

Prices move. Always confirm the live number at your book before you act on anything here.