Games
Game win probabilities
57 games · updated 47m agoThe betting market’s own numbers, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. Not our forecast. Ranked by how certain the favorite is. A rank is the game’s published place among the 75 games priced at publish time across every sport; a game that has started leaves this list but keeps its rank, so the numbers can skip.
- 1 of 75CFBFavoriteMiami Hurricanes94.5%fair -1735best -1800 at DraftKingsUnderdogFlorida State Seminoles5.4%fair +1735best +1200 at Hard Rock
- 2 of 75CFBFavoriteTemple Owls94.3%fair -1663best -1800 at DraftKingsUnderdogCharlotte 49ers5.7%fair +1663best +1200 at ESPN BET
- 3 of 75CFBFavoriteSouth Florida Bulls93.2%fair -1365best -1400 at BetMGMUnderdogKent State Golden Flashes6.8%fair +1365best +1100 at Bally Bet
Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.5 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.
- 4 of 75CFBFavoriteGeorgia Bulldogs92.5%fair -1225best -1200 at BetMGMUnderdogAuburn Tigers7.5%fair +1225best +1000 at Hard Rock
- 5 of 75CFBFavoriteOregon State Beavers90.3%fair -934best -900 at ESPN BETUnderdogWashington State Cougars9.7%fair +934best +680 at FanDuel
- 7 of 75CFBFavoriteLouisiana Tech Bulldogs87.1%fair -673best -700 at BetMGMUnderdogUL Monroe Warhawks12.9%fair +673best +550 at BetRivers
- 8 of 75CFBFavoriteUtah Utes87.1%fair -673best -700 at ESPN BETUnderdogColorado Buffaloes12.9%fair +673best +550 at Hard Rock
- 9 of 75CFBFavoriteNorth Dakota State Bison86.8%fair -655best -700 at DraftKingsUnderdogNevada Wolf Pack13.2%fair +655best +580 at FanDuel
- 10 of 75CFBFavoriteTexas Tech Red Raiders86.5%fair -638best -675 at CaesarsUnderdogArizona State Sun Devils13.5%fair +638best +525 at BetMGM
- 11 of 75CFBFavoriteNew Mexico Lobos86.4%fair -633best -675 at CaesarsUnderdogHawaii Rainbow Warriors13.6%fair +633best +530 at FanDuel
- 12 of 75CFBFavoriteLSU Tigers86.3%fair -630best -650 at BetMGMUnderdogMississippi State Bulldogs13.7%fair +630best +500 at FanDuel
- 13 of 75CFBFavoriteLouisville Cardinals86.0%fair -613best -650 at BetMGMUnderdogSyracuse Orange14.0%fair +613best +500 at Bally Bet
- 14 of 75CFBFavoriteOhio Bobcats86.0%fair -612best -650 at ESPN BETUnderdogSacramento State Hornets14.0%fair +612best +600 at betPARX
Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.6 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.
- 15 of 75CFBFavoriteFlorida International Panthers80.5%fair -412best -450 at FanDuelUnderdogMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders19.5%fair +412best +340 at FanDuel
Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.
- 16 of 75CFBFavoriteTexas Longhorns80.3%fair -407best -420 at FanDuelUnderdogFlorida Gators19.7%fair +407best +360 at Bally Bet
- 18 of 75CFBFavoriteNotre Dame Fighting Irish79.4%fair -385best -395 at DraftKingsUnderdogBYU Cougars20.6%fair +385best +350 at Hard Rock
- 19 of 75CFBFavoriteJames Madison Dukes79.3%fair -382best -400 at ESPN BETUnderdogGeorgia State Panthers20.7%fair +382best +375 at Hard Rock
Books disagree: their de-vigged numbers span 4.4 points on this game. There is no single "market number" here.
- 21 of 75CFBFavoriteWake Forest Demon Deacons77.8%fair -350best -375 at DraftKingsUnderdogCalifornia Golden Bears22.2%fair +350best +320 at ESPN BET
- 22 of 75CFBFavoriteVirginia Tech Hokies77.6%fair -346best -375 at DraftKingsUnderdogGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets22.4%fair +346best +310 at Bally Bet
- 23 of 75CFBFavoriteMiami (OH) RedHawks77.3%fair -340best -350 at BetMGMUnderdogAkron Zips22.7%fair +340best +310 at Bally Bet
- 24 of 75CFBFavoriteSMU Mustangs76.6%fair -327best -335 at CaesarsUnderdogVirginia Cavaliers23.4%fair +327best +300 at Hard Rock
- 25 of 75CFBFavoriteLiberty Flames76.1%fair -318best -345 at FanDuelUnderdogKennesaw State Owls23.9%fair +318best +270 at FanDuel
Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.
- 27 of 75CFBFavoriteAlabama Crimson Tide75.1%fair -301best -315 at BetRiversUnderdogTennessee Volunteers24.9%fair +301best +270 at DraftKings
- 29 of 75CFBFavoriteWyoming Cowboys74.4%fair -291best -300 at ESPN BETUnderdogNorthern Illinois Huskies25.6%fair +291best +270 at FanDuel
- 30 of 75CFBFavoriteFresno State Bulldogs73.5%fair -277best -295 at FanDuelUnderdogSan Diego State Aztecs26.5%fair +277best +260 at ESPN BET
- 31 of 75CFBFavoriteNorthwestern Wildcats73.2%fair -273best -285 at FanDuelUnderdogMichigan State Spartans26.8%fair +273best +250 at ESPN BET
- 32 of 75CFBFavoriteMemphis Tigers71.5%fair -251best -260 at FanDuelUnderdogTulane Green Wave28.5%fair +251best +225 at ESPN BET
- 33 of 75CFBFavoriteOregon Ducks71.3%fair -249best -245 at FanDuelUnderdogNebraska Cornhuskers28.7%fair +249best +220 at DraftKings
- 34 of 75CFBFavoriteSan Jose State Spartans71.2%fair -247best -250 at FanDuelUnderdogUTEP Miners28.8%fair +247best +230 at ESPN BET
- 35 of 75CFBFavoriteBuffalo Bulls70.6%fair -241best -240 at Hard RockUnderdogUMass Minutemen29.4%fair +241best +220 at DraftKings
- 36 of 75CFBFavoriteWestern Michigan Broncos70.4%fair -238best -250 at BetMGMUnderdogCentral Michigan Chippewas29.6%fair +238best +215 at FanDuel
- 37 of 75CFBFavoriteUTSA Roadrunners70.3%fair -237best -250 at BetMGMUnderdogNavy Midshipmen29.7%fair +237best +230 at betPARX
- 38 of 75CFBFavoriteMichigan Wolverines70.2%fair -236best -250 at ESPN BETUnderdogPenn State Nittany Lions29.8%fair +236best +220 at Hard Rock
- 39 of 75CFBFavoriteToledo Rockets69.5%fair -228best -235 at BetMGMUnderdogEastern Michigan Eagles30.5%fair +228best +210 at ESPN BET
- 40 of 75CFBFavoriteOklahoma Sooners69.5%fair -228best -235 at BetMGMUnderdogKentucky Wildcats30.5%fair +228best +215 at ESPN BET
- 41 of 75CFBFavoriteBowling Green Falcons69.5%fair -228best -230 at Hard RockUnderdogBall State Cardinals30.5%fair +228best +210 at DraftKings
- 43 of 75CFBFavoriteArkansas State Red Wolves68.6%fair -218best -230 at ESPN BETUnderdogSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles31.4%fair +218best +210 at Hard Rock
- 44 of 75CFBFavoritePittsburgh Panthers68.5%fair -218best -230 at FanDuelUnderdogBoston College Eagles31.5%fair +218best +215 at ESPN BET
- 45 of 75CFBFavoriteVanderbilt Commodores68.2%fair -214best -215 at ESPN BETUnderdogArkansas Razorbacks31.9%fair +214best +190 at FanDuel
- 46 of 75CFBFavoriteBaylor Bears67.7%fair -210best -218 at DraftKingsUnderdogTCU Horned Frogs32.3%fair +210best +195 at betPARX
- 47 of 75CFBFavoriteOle Miss Rebels66.9%fair -202best -215 at FanaticsUnderdogMissouri Tigers33.1%fair +202best +185 at DraftKings
- 49 of 75CFBFavoriteMaryland Terrapins66.0%fair -194best -200 at CaesarsUnderdogRutgers Scarlet Knights34.0%fair +194best +180 at FanDuel
- 51 of 75CFBFavoriteKansas State Wildcats64.5%fair -181best -184 at FanDuelUnderdogKansas Jayhawks35.5%fair +181best +168 at Caesars
- 52 of 75CFBFavoriteHouston Cougars64.1%fair -179best -184 at FanDuelUnderdogOklahoma State Cowboys35.9%fair +179best +165 at Bally Bet
- 53 of 75CFBFavoriteTulsa Golden Hurricane64.1%fair -179best -188 at FanDuelUnderdogRice Owls35.9%fair +179best +170 at ESPN BET
- 55 of 75CFBFavoriteIowa Hawkeyes62.9%fair -170best -182 at FanDuelUnderdogMinnesota Golden Gophers37.1%fair +170best +154 at DraftKings
Thin market: only 3 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.
- 56 of 75CFBFavoriteOhio State Buckeyes61.7%fair -161best -170 at FanDuelUnderdogIndiana Hoosiers38.3%fair +161best +150 at DraftKings
- 57 of 75CFBFavoritePurdue Boilermakers61.5%fair -159best -164 at FanDuelUnderdogWashington Huskies38.5%fair +159best +142 at DraftKings
- 58 of 75CFBFavoriteDuke Blue Devils59.3%fair -145best -145 at ESPN BETUnderdogNorth Carolina Tar Heels40.7%fair +145best +135 at Caesars
- 59 of 75CFBFavoriteLouisiana Ragin Cajuns58.8%fair -143best -150 at ESPN BETUnderdogTroy Trojans41.2%fair +143best +136 at Caesars
- 63 of 75CFBFavoriteNew Mexico State Aggies56.6%fair -130best -142 at FanDuelUnderdogSam Houston State Bearkats43.4%fair +130best +118 at FanDuel
Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.
- 64 of 75CFBFavoriteUCLA Bruins56.4%fair -129best -135 at Hard RockUnderdogWisconsin Badgers43.6%fair +129best +120 at DraftKings
- 65 of 75CFBFavoriteSouth Alabama Jaguars55.7%fair -126best -137 at FanDuelUnderdogMarshall Thundering Herd44.3%fair +126best +114 at FanDuel
Thin market: only 2 books price both sides. Treat this as one quote, not a consensus.
- 66 of 75CFBFavoriteArmy Black Knights55.5%fair -125best -130 at FanDuelUnderdogFlorida Atlantic Owls44.5%fair +125best +116 at Caesars
- 68 of 75CFBFavoriteWest Virginia Mountaineers52.8%fair -112best -118 at FanDuelUnderdogCincinnati Bearcats47.3%fair +112best +107 at Caesars
- 70 of 75CFBFavoriteAppalachian State Mountaineers52.2%fair -109best -115 at FanDuelUnderdogCoastal Carolina Chanticleers47.8%fair +109best +100 at Hard Rock
- 73 of 75CFBFavoriteAir Force Falcons51.1%fair -105best -110 at ESPN BETUnderdogUNLV Rebels48.9%fair +105best +100 at Hard Rock
No market yet
3 scheduled games on this slate have fewer than two books quoting both sides, so there is no consensus to de-vig. We would rather show the gap than invent a number from a single quote.
- CFB Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Clemson Tigers · Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM ET
- CFB Citadel Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies · Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM ET
- CFB Elon Phoenix at Stanford Cardinal · Sat, Oct 17, 7:30 PM ET
How these numbers are built, and why they are not our forecast
This is what the betting market thinks, with the bookmaker’s cut taken out. We take every sportsbook’s own two prices on a game, strip its margin , and publish the middle number across books. Then we rank the slate by how certain the favorite is.
It is not our forecast, and we are not claiming to beat it. We have no game-winner model. We built one for UFC and tested it against 2,680 real closing prices over six seasons: the market beat it in every single year. This number is our best available estimate precisely because the game market is efficient. There is no edge being sold here, and anyone telling you they can price a moneyline better than the market owes you the same test.
Useful for: seeing a whole week at a glance, filling in a confidence pool, and checking whether a price you were offered is roughly fair. Not useful for: finding a bet we think wins.
Prices move. Always confirm the live number at your book before you act on anything here.