MLB Player Prop Projections Today, Oct 22

TEX atATH · 9:40 PM ET

Henry BolteATH · vs TEX · Aug 15 · Final

0.89

0.5

+0.39

+ WinOver 0.5 · -165+0.61uat DraftKings

Actual results

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: 62.3%

Joc PedersonTEX · at ATH · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.56

0.5

+0.06

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +186+1.82uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 36.3% chance of zero hits. The recorded +186 price needs about 35% to break even.

Actual results

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: 35.0%

Alika WilliamsATH · vs TEX · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.55

0.5

+0.05

− LossUnder 0.5 · +105−1.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 50.8% chance of zero hits. The recorded +105 price needs about 49% to break even.

Actual results

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: 48.8%

Nicky LopezTEX · at ATH · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.49

0.5

−0.01

− LossUnder 0.5 · +140−1.00uat DraftKings

Actual results

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: 41.7%

Evan CarterTEX · at ATH · Aug 15 · Final

0.60

0.5

+0.10

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +130+1.27uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 45.3% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +130 price needs about 43% to break even.

Actual results

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: 43.5%

Wyatt LangfordTEX · at ATH · Aug 15 · Final

0.63

1.5

−0.87

Actual: 3 hits · Projection: 0.63Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 65.5%

Brandon NimmoTEX · at ATH · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.71

1.5

+0.21

Actual: 2 total bases · Projection: 1.71Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 54.5%

KC atLAA · 9:38 PM ET

Denzer GuzmanLAA · vs KC · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.67

0.5

+0.17

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +165+1.65u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 39.6% chance of zero hits. The recorded +165 price needs about 38% to break even.

Actual results

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: 37.7%

Jose SiriLAA · vs KC · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.57

0.5

+0.07

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +144+1.44u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 43.9% chance of zero hits. The recorded +144 price needs about 41% to break even.

Actual results

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: 41.0%

Tyler TolbertKC · at LAA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.53

0.5

+0.03

+ WinUnder 0.5 · -105+0.95u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 54.3% chance of zero hits. The recorded -105 price needs about 51% to break even.

Actual results

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: 51.2%

Bobby Witt Jr.KC · at LAA · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.46

1.5

−0.04

+ WinUnder 1.5 · +110+1.10u

Actual results

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: 47.6%

Tyler HeinemanLAA · vs KC · Aug 15 · Final

0.59

0.5

+0.09

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +120+1.20u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.8% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +120 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Jac CaglianoneKC · at LAA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

1.39

0.5

+0.89

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 1.39Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 63.6%

Kyle IsbelKC · at LAA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.59

0.5

+0.09

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.59Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 46.5%

Josh LoweLAA · vs KC · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.51

0.5

+0.01

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.51Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 41.7%

Adam FrazierLAA · vs KC · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

0.51

0.5

+0.01

Actual: 3 total bases · Projection: 0.51Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 46.5%

ARI atATL · 7:15 PM ET

Lane ThomasATL · vs ARI · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.54

0.5

+0.04

− LossUnder 0.5 · +120−1.00uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 47.6% chance of zero hits. The recorded +120 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Drake BaldwinATL · vs ARI · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.34

1.5

−0.16

− LossUnder 1.5 · -120−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 54.5%

Ozzie AlbiesATL · vs ARI · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.34

1.5

−0.16

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -125+0.80uat BetMGM

Actual results

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: 55.6%

BOS atPIT · 7:15 PM ET

Ronny SimonPIT · vs BOS · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

1.12

0.5

+0.62

− LossOver 0.5 · -150−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Jacob GonzalezPIT · vs BOS · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.62

0.5

+0.12

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +115+1.13uat ProphetX

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.0% chance of zero hits. The recorded +115 price needs about 47% to break even.

Actual results

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: 46.5%

MIL atLAD · 7:15 PM ET

Jackson ChourioMIL · at LAD · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.89

1.5

+0.39

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -108+0.93uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 53.7% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -108 price needs about 52% to break even.

Actual results

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: 51.9%

Luis LaraMIL · at LAD · Aug 15 · Final

0.84

0.5

+0.34

− LossUnder 0.5 · +140−1.00uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 43.2% chance of zero total bases. The recorded +140 price needs about 42% to break even.

Actual results

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: 41.7%

Max MuncyMIL at LAD · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

0.74

0.5

+0.24

+ WinUnder 0.5 · -110+0.91uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 54.1% chance of zero total bases. The recorded -110 price needs about 52% to break even.

Actual results

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: 52.4%

PHI atMIN · 7:10 PM ET

Brooks LeeMIN · vs PHI · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.88

0.5

+0.38

+ WinOver 0.5 · -115+0.87uat Novig

Actual results

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: 53.5%

Austin MartinMIN · vs PHI · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.57

0.5

+0.07

− LossUnder 0.5 · +135−1.00u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 44.8% chance of zero hits. The recorded +135 price needs about 43% to break even.

Actual results

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: 42.6%

Derek HillPHI · at MIN · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.29

0.5

−0.21

− LossUnder 0.5 · +100−1.00u

Actual results

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: 50.0%

SD atCLE · 7:10 PM ET

Luis CampusanoSD · at CLE · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

1.08

0.5

+0.58

− LossOver 0.5 · -122−1.00uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 55.0%

Jake CronenworthSD · at CLE · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.90

0.5

+0.40

+ WinOver 0.5 · -130+0.75uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 56.5%

SEA atHOU · 7:10 PM ET

Taylor TrammellHOU · vs SEA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.68

0.5

+0.18

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +115+1.15uat Novig

Why Under? Our model estimates a 48.1% chance of zero hits. The recorded +115 price needs about 47% to break even.

Actual results

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: 46.5%

Victor RoblesSEA · at HOU · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.67

0.5

+0.17

− LossUnder 0.5 · +125−1.00uat BetMGM

Why Under? Our model estimates a 46.2% chance of zero hits. The recorded +125 price needs about 44% to break even.

Actual results

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: 44.4%

MIA atCIN · 6:40 PM ET

JJ BledayCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.59

0.5

+0.09

− LossUnder 0.5 · +180−1.00uat ESPN BET

Why Under? Our model estimates a 37.0% chance of zero hits. The recorded +180 price needs about 36% to break even.

Actual results

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: 35.7%

Owen CaissieMIA · at CIN · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.49

0.5

−0.01

− LossUnder 0.5 · +110−1.00u

Actual results

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: 47.6%

Ke'Bryan HayesCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.35

0.5

−0.15

− LossUnder 0.5 · +100−1.00u

Actual results

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: 50.0%

Hector RodriguezCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.25

0.5

−0.25

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +144+1.44u

Actual results

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: 41.0%

Elly De La CruzCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.64

1.5

+0.14

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -110+0.91u

Why Under? Our model estimates a 54.5% chance of 1 or fewer total bases. The recorded -110 price needs about 52% to break even.

Actual results

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: 52.4%

Dane MyersCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.66

0.5

+0.16

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.66Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 41.2%

Heriberto HernandezMIA · at CIN · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.65

0.5

+0.15

Actual: 2 hits · Projection: 0.65Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 38.0%

Matt McLainCIN · vs MIA · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.56

0.5

+0.06

Actual: 3 hits · Projection: 0.56Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 46.9%

Esteury RuizMIA · at CIN · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.49

0.5

−0.01

Actual: 0 hits · Projection: 0.49Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 46.7%

Graham PauleyMIA · at CIN · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.46

0.5

−0.04

Actual: 1 hits · Projection: 0.46Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 47.6%

Xavier EdwardsMIA · at CIN · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.08

1.5

−0.42

Actual: 2 total bases · Projection: 1.08Research onlyExcluded from pick record

Actual results

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: 56.9%

BAL atTB · 6:10 PM ET

Pete AlonsoBAL · at TB · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

1.11

0.5

+0.61

+ WinOver 0.5 · -150+0.65uat ProphetX

Actual results

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: 60.0%

Tyler O'NeillBAL at TB · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.63

0.5

+0.13

− LossUnder 0.5 · +120−1.00uat Hard Rock Bet (OH)

Why Under? Our model estimates a 47.0% chance of zero hits. The recorded +120 price needs about 45% to break even.

Actual results

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: 45.5%

Christian FranklinBAL · at TB · Aug 15 · Final

0.38

0.5

−0.12

+ WinUnder 0.5 · +120+1.20uat ESPN BET

Actual results

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: 45.5%

WSH atNYM · 4:10 PM ET

CJ AbramsWSH · at NYM · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.95

0.5

+0.45

− LossOver 0.5 · -160−1.00uat BetMGM

Actual results

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: 61.5%

Andrés ChaparroWSH · at NYM · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.50

0.5

0.00

− LossUnder 0.5 · +155−1.00uat betPARX

Actual results

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: 39.2%

Nasim NunezWSH · at NYM · Aug 15 · Final

0.48

0.5

−0.02

− LossUnder 0.5 · +111−1.00uat Novig

Actual results

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: 47.4%

A.J. EwingNYM · vs WSH · Aug 15 · Final

Total Bases

1.16

1.5

−0.34

+ WinUnder 1.5 · -160+0.63uat Hard Rock Bet (OH)

Actual results

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: 61.5%

COL atSF · 4:05 PM ET

Christian KossSF · vs COL · Aug 15 · Final

Hits

0.63

0.5

+0.13

− LossUnder 0.5 · +150−1.00uat Hard Rock Bet (OH)

Why Under? Our model estimates a 41.6% chance of zero hits. The recorded +150 price needs about 40% to break even.

Actual results

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: 40.0%

Saturday · Aug 15

Today

TEX atATH · 9:40 PM ET

KC atLAA · 9:38 PM ET

ARI atATL · 7:15 PM ET

BOS atPIT · 7:15 PM ET

MIL atLAD · 7:15 PM ET

PHI atMIN · 7:10 PM ET

SD atCLE · 7:10 PM ET

SEA atHOU · 7:10 PM ET

MIA atCIN · 6:40 PM ET

BAL atTB · 6:10 PM ET

WSH atNYM · 4:10 PM ET

COL atSF · 4:05 PM ET

Saturday · Aug 15

TEX atATH · 9:40 PM ET

KC atLAA · 9:38 PM ET

ARI atATL · 7:15 PM ET

BOS atPIT · 7:15 PM ET

MIL atLAD · 7:15 PM ET

PHI atMIN · 7:10 PM ET

SD atCLE · 7:10 PM ET

SEA atHOU · 7:10 PM ET

MIA atCIN · 6:40 PM ET

BAL atTB · 6:10 PM ET

WSH atNYM · 4:10 PM ET

COL atSF · 4:05 PM ET