Every play StatIQ logged at a price before the game started, graded in the open afterwards. Wins and losses, never deleted — loading the ledger…
…
loading
StatIQ Sports — honest player-prop projections with a public record
StatIQPregame to final — all in one place
DetailAdds the projection, the calibrated chance, the band and the history.
The record
Every play StatIQ logged at a price before the game started, graded in the open afterwards. Wins and losses, never deleted. This page exists to be checked, not believed.
Everything below counts MLB only, current model (since Jul 28), in dollars at 1 unit = $10. Change any of the three and every number on the page changes with it.
437−313
MLB · Current model · since Jul 28
750 graded plays
58.3%
Hit rate437 of 750 decided
+$837.68
Net P/Lflat $10 a play
+11.17%
Return per playnet $ ÷ 750 plays
28 · 61 void
Still openlogged, not yet graded
+ MLB is ahead Over 750 graded MLB plays in this era we are up +$837.68. That is a result, not a claim — a return figure needs something like 4,000 plays before it separates skill from variance, so we publish it exactly the way we publish the one that is behind. The other two windows are not hidden: the previous model is 354−325 at −$138.99, and the all-time official record is 791−638 at +$698.70. Records are never blended across sports — different models, different markets, different start dates; one combined figure would be a number we invented.
Before the numbers
How to read this page
One sport at a time. You are looking at MLB. Each sport is a different model on different markets and their records are never added together, not even to make a bigger number.
One era at a time, but all three are on screen. The headline counts the era in the switch above. The other two are in the table below it, and the first two add up to the third.
A rate needs a sample. Below 20 decided plays we show the raw won–lost and a dash instead of a percentage. That rule is applied to good samples and bad ones identically.
Colour is never the only signal. Every gain or loss carries an explicit + or − and a word. The page reads correctly in greyscale.
Any number that is not the headline says so. Every subset on this page states its own n, how that n relates to the headline’s n, and what happened to the rows it excludes. If you find one that does not, that is a bug and it is the worst kind we can ship.
Voids are not wins and not losses. A player who never played settles at 0 and stays on the record labelled as such. Nothing is deleted, ever.
The cutoffs, in full. The official MLB record starts 2026-07-12; the current model era starts 2026-07-28. Anything before the first date is kept and shown but not counted — it was graded under rules we have since disowned. The excluded stretch is itemised at the foot of the era table, including when it helped us.
Return per play is net units divided by graded plays at a flat 1 unit, on the price we locked, before any bonus, boost or fee. It describes plays already graded. It is not a forecast and it is not annualised.
Eras
Three windows, all on screen at once
A model cutover starts a new era. The previous era stays published and unedited — a scoreboard you are allowed to reset is not a scoreboard. So rather than hide two of the three numbers behind the one that flatters us, all three sit in one table, and the top two add up to the bottom one. Pick a row to make it the headline.
Window
W−L
Graded
Hit rate
Return / play
Net P/L
Current modelsince Jul 28 · the model selecting plays today
Before the official recordplays from Jul 10 to Jul 11 · not counted anywhere above
11−2
13
—
—
+$175.50
The two eras add up to the record computed from 1429 rows
✓This identity holds:437 + 354 = 791 wins
✓
The curve
Cumulative units, both eras, one axis
The whole official record on one line, with the model cutover drawn as a rule rather than as a fresh start. The shaded span is the era the headline above counts. The best and worst points are both labelled: a chart that only marks its peak is an advertisement.
Cumulative units across 29 graded days, Jul 12 to Aug 12, ending at +69.87u. One point per game day, evenly spaced — days with no games are not stretched out, so the horizontal axis is order, not calendar time. The line is the whole official record, both eras: the era the headline counts is shaded, and the cutover is drawn as a rule rather than as a restart, because restarting the chart at every recalibration is how a losing record disappears one cutover at a time. Every point here is also a row in the table below.
Day by day
Every day, and every pick inside it
One row per game day: won–lost, that day’s units, and the running total after it. Open a day to see the individual plays — the side we took, the price we took it at, how long before the game we took it, what we projected, and what actually happened. Collapsing a day never hides its result: the totals stay on the header either way.
17 game days · 750 graded plays · 61 void · 28 still open. The day totals add to +$837.68, the same figure as the headline.
Aug 13Thu0−0$0.00running +$837.6828 opencurrent model
Alejandro Kirk›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 5h 28m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.07 · not settled+1.39%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game
Splits
The same plays, cut four ways
Each split is an exhaustive partition of the plays in the current scope: the rows add to the headline’s W–L and to its units, and the table prints the total so you can see that they do. Rates are withheld below n=20 — and on a small sample almost every cell is withheld, which is the honest answer rather than a table of noise.
A descriptive split of a sample this size is a curiosity, not a finding. It is here so you can see where the result came from, not so we can claim a market we are good at.
Market
Plays
W−L
Hit rate
Return / play
Net P/L
Contribution
hits
576
323−253
56.1%
+9.97%
+$574.21
total bases
174
114−60
65.5%
+15.14%
+$263.47
All 2 groups
750
437−313
58.3%
+11.17%
+$837.68
This split partitions the headline exactly 2 groups
✓
Where the price came from
The same plays, at two definitions of “takeable”
Where the price came from — the same 750 settled tracked plays (bets we made, not measurement-only locks), current model, read two ways
As logged+11.17%+83.77u437–313 · n=750every play, at the price we locked
Neither of these is “the real one.” The left column is the append-only record exactly as we logged it. The right column is the same plays restricted to prices takeable at a state-licensed US sportsbook or a CFTC-designated contract market (Novig, ProphetX) — what the record looks like if you can only bet where we would send you. They reconcile exactly: 750 = 680 + 70 excluded, worth +20.05u. Nothing is hidden and nothing is counted twice.
Sweepstakes14 plays+1.86upriced at a sweepstakes book — promotional currency, not a cash price
Offshore21 plays+4.15u · +19.75%priced offshore — no US licence, no consumer recourse
Unlicensed6 plays+4.05upriced at an unlicensed US operator — no state licence, not on the CFTC register
No book recorded29 plays+9.99u · +34.44%no book recorded on the play — we cannot prove where it was takeable
Going forward the play gate reads the US-regulated price, so we never tell you something is worth betting only at a venue you may not be able to use. The offshore number is still captured and still shown next to it, so this table keeps measuring exactly what that choice costs us — or saves us. Excluded plays are never deleted: they stay in the record, in the list below, and in the left column.
Subsets
Two numbers that are not the record
Both of these count a different set of rows from the headline, and that is exactly how a number stops reconciling and starts looking like a contradiction. So each one states its own n, how that n relates to the headline’s n, and what happened to the rows it leaves out.
At the book vs at Kalshi 618 of 750 plays
At the book
+$574.28
+9.29% per play
At Kalshi, fee included
+$385.04
+6.23% per play
Same plays, same results356−262 either way
What differsonly the price each venue paid
Kalshi fee applied0.07 × p × (1−p) per contract, rounded up to the cent
and it reconciles to the headline
✓This identity holds:618 comparable + 132 with no fillable Kalshi price = 750 graded plays
✓This identity holds:+57.43u + +26.34u = +83.77u, the headline net
A price comparison on the 618 plays where Kalshi listed our line at a fillable pre-game price (5¢–95¢; the tails are stale or untradeable and a “win” at 1¢ pays 49× and fakes the whole number). The other 132 plays ran +$263.40 and count in the headline only. Kalshi charges no sportsbook vig but we line-shop across many books, so the book beating the exchange is a finding, not a bug.
Closing line value, on the tracked plays 719 of 750 plays
+1.33%
average, in probability points, against where our side closed · beat the close on 514 of 719
why 719 and not 750
✓
Nothing settles at “never happened”
Voids, pushes and the plays still open
Rows that could not win or lose money. They are not in the W–L and not in the return, because no stake was ever at risk on them — and they are not deleted, because “we took this line” is the claim, and the claim stands whether or not the player played. Every count here is scoped to the era selected above, the same as the headline.
Voids — nobody could win or lose 61 rows
61 settled at $0.00
MLB · current model
did not play40
the game was postponed — it was never played21
✓This identity holds:750 graded + 61 void + 28 open = 839 rows we logged in this scope
The voids are in that total and not in the headline’s 750. Counting a scratch as a win would be a lie; deleting it would be a different one.
Where we cannot name the reason precisely we say “no action” rather than guess “did not play”. A postponed game is not a player sitting out, and a label that is only probably true has no business on a record page.
Pushes and open plays
Pushes (landed exactly on the number)0
Logged, game not finished28
Measurement-only picks (never in this record)205
There are no pushes in this scope — every line we took was a half-number, so nothing could land exactly on it. The row is printed anyway: a zero you can see is worth more than a category that quietly does not exist.
The 205 measurement-only picks are model-qualified numbers we take a price on and grade purely to measure ourselves faster. They have their own wins and losses and none of them count here, good or bad. They are the reason the closing-line-value sample on the audit page is bigger than this record.
The promise
Append-only, and here is what that costs us
“Append-only” is easy to write and hard to prove. The proof is that the worst things that have happened to us are still on this page, at full size, in the same type as the good ones.
Logged before the game, every time
✗ 747 / 750
plays whose price was locked strictly before the scheduled start
earliestgame startstightest 0 min
Earliest23h 38m before
Median8h 46m before
Tightest0 min before
This is the claim the whole record rests on, so it is measured rather than asserted: for every play we hold the moment we locked the price and the scheduled start, and the gap is checked on every single one. The tightest was 0 min.
The worst of it, at full size
Worst dayMon, Aug 3 · 15−18
…that day cost−$65.91
Longest losing run11 plays in a row
Deepest drawdown from a peak−$147.42
Best dayWed, Aug 5 · 42−21
…that day made+$243.95
Both directions, same type size, same panel. A record page that can tell you its best day and not its worst one is an advertisement with a table in it. Every one of these days is expandable in the ledger above — the bad ones are not archived any deeper than the good ones.
Don’t take our word for it
Check the arithmetic
Every identity this page relies on, re-derived from the raw rows. If a subset near a headline cannot be reconciled with the headline, that is the worst bug this product can ship — so these are printed rather than promised, and a failing one renders as a failure on the page instead of quietly disappearing.
✗ 3 of 14 checks FAILED · re-derived from 839 rows in this scope
✓Passed:the eras partition the record — 437−313 + 354−325 = 791−638
✗FAILED:era units add up — +83.77u + −13.90u = +69.87u
✓Passed:era counts add up — 750 + 679 = 1429 graded plays
✓Passed:the market split partitions all 750 plays and +83.77u exactly
✓Passed:the side split partitions all 750 plays and +83.77u exactly
✗FAILED:the book split partitions all 750 plays and +83.77u exactly
✓Passed:the how early we bet split partitions all 750 plays and +83.77u exactly
✓Passed:the at-Kalshi subset plus the plays it excludes equals the headline, in count AND in units
✓Passed:every graded play has exactly one CLV status — 719 counted, 16 the book moved the line, 15 no closing quote
✓Passed:the CLV legs telescope — +3.34% waiting + −1.69% drift = +1.64% raw
Past results are a record of what happened, not a forecast. No ROI claim is made anywhere on this page: a return figure here describes plays already graded, and the sample is far short of the several thousand it would take to separate skill from variance. Browse the same record by player →
This identity holds:
313 + 325 = 638 losses
✓This identity holds:750 + 679 = 1429 graded plays
✗THIS IDENTITY DOES NOT HOLD:+83.77u + −13.90u = +69.87u
The pre-record row is deliberately not in that sum. It is shown because hiding it would be the cherry-pick, and it is excluded because it was graded under a method we have disowned.
The official MLB record begins 2026-07-12. Before that we have 11−2 over 13 plays worth +17.55u, and we do not count them — they were graded before watch-then-lock existed, under selection rules we no longer use. Note the direction. That excluded stretch was ahead: dropping it takes +17.55u away from us. A cutoff that only ever deletes losses is cherry-picking; this one deletes a win, which is the only way you can tell it is a real rule.
5h 28m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.2%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.39%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.91%
…of which: waiting paid+3.50%
…of which: market drift+1.41%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.50% + +1.41% = +4.91%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.39% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ben Malgeri›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 7h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.47 · not settled+4.31%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.5%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.31%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.84%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift+1.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + +1.46% = +3.84%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Brenton Doyle›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 2h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ProphetXproj 0.71 · not settled+3.21%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-156
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.0%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.21%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.21%
…of which: waiting paid+2.60%
…of which: market drift+0.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Bryson Stott›Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 11h 44m before the gameOver 0.5-146 at ProphetXproj 1.01 · not settled+4.94%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-146 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-195
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.01 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.2%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.94%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.94%
…of which: waiting paid+6.75%
…of which: market drift−1.82%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Cole Young›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · total bases · priced 5h 16m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at ProphetXproj 1.55 · not settled—no close until the game startsOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game5h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.55 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.7%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Colson Montgomery›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 13h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at ProphetXproj 0.76 · not settled+0.93%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ProphetX
Locked before the game13h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.93%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.93%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.93%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Esmerlyn Valdez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 9h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+136 at ProphetXproj 0.52 · not settled−0.84%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+136 at ProphetX
Locked before the game9h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.0%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.84%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.18%
…of which: waiting paid+2.07%
…of which: market drift−1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.07% + −1.89% = +0.18%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.84% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Heliot Ramos›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · total bases · priced 4h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-142 at ProphetXproj 1.14 · not settled—no close until the game startsOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-142 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.14 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Heriberto Hernandez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 4h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+148 at betPARXproj 0.61 · not settled—no close until the game startsOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+148 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Jacob Gonzalez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 13h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.58 · not settled−5.32%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.2%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−5.32%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−5.23%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−5.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −5.23% = −5.23%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −5.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Jose Tena›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 12h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.46 · not settled+1.58%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.7%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.58%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+8.90%
…of which: market drift−5.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.90% + −5.87% = +3.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.58% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Josh Lowe›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 14h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5-108 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.46 · not settled+1.35%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-108 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game14h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.8%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.35%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.35%
…of which: waiting paid+4.60%
…of which: market drift−3.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Josh Naylor›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 1h 25m before the gameOver 0.5-148 at Bally Betproj 1.05 · not settled−0.34%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-148 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game1h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-143
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.6%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.34%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.83%
…of which: waiting paid+3.83%
…of which: market drift−4.66%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.83% + −4.66% = −0.83%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 6h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.3 · not settled+0.20%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.8%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.20%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.50%
…of which: waiting paid+1.22%
…of which: market drift−1.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.22% + −1.71% = −0.50%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kyle Schwarber›Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 9h 20m before the gameOver 0.5-135 at BetMGMproj 0.81 · not settled+3.49%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-135 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.5%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.49%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.49%
…of which: waiting paid+6.19%
…of which: market drift−2.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Leo Rivas›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 2h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5-120 at ESPN BETproj 0.25 · not settled+1.40%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed-127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.25 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.40%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.40%
…of which: waiting paid+9.09%
…of which: market drift−7.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Luisangel Acuna›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 8h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.48 · not settled+1.37%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game8h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.5%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.37%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.06%
…of which: waiting paid+3.33%
…of which: market drift−2.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.33% + −2.27% = +1.06%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.37% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Miguel Rojas›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 16h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+125proj 0.66 · not settled+1.01%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game16h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.1%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.01%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+4.34%
…of which: market drift−3.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Moises Ballesteros›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 16h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at DraftKingsproj 0.52 · not settled+0.68%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+104
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.6%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.68%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+2.51%
…of which: market drift−1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.51% + −1.40% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.68% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Nathan Lukes›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 2h 32m before the gameOver 0.5-110 at BetMGMproj 0.74 · not settled0.00%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 32m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.74 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.3%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Oswald Peraza›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 14h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at DraftKingsproj 0.39 · not settled+1.07%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+107
Where our side closed+106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.07%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.03%
…of which: waiting paid+1.80%
…of which: market drift+0.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.80% + +0.23% = +2.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.07% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Otto Lopez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 5h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at ProphetXproj 1.11 · not settled+2.13%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game5h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-258
Where our side closed-230
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.5%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.13%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.18%
…of which: waiting paid+6.55%
…of which: market drift−2.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.55% + −2.37% = +4.18%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.13% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Owen Caissie›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 3h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.53 · not settled+1.42%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-127
Where our side closed-109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.3%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.42%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.15%
…of which: waiting paid+5.95%
…of which: market drift−3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.95% + −3.79% = +2.15%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.42% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Randal Grichuk›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 2h 6m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at betPARXproj 0.62 · not settled−0.73%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.9%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.73%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.73%
…of which: waiting paid+4.09%
…of which: market drift−4.82%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game34¢
With Kalshi’s fee36¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Royce Lewis›Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 10h 44m before the gameOver 0.5-154 at ProphetXproj 1.28 · not settled+0.62%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-154 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-167
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.6%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.62%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.87%
…of which: waiting paid+1.92%
…of which: market drift+0.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.92% + +0.96% = +2.87%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.62% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Spencer Jones›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 9h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.63 · not settled+0.20%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+104
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.20%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+2.51%
…of which: market drift−1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.51% + −1.40% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Trevor Larnach›Philadelphia Phillies vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 13h 27m before the gameUnder 0.5+165proj 0.62 · not settled+2.67%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 27m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.2%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.67%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.93%
…of which: waiting paid+5.74%
…of which: market drift−1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.74% + −1.81% = +3.93%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.67% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Wyatt Langford›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 12h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+195proj 0.63 · not settled−0.17%CLV vs closeOpen—
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+195 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game12h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+174 on 1.5
Where our side closed+195
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed35.6%
Actualpending
Settlednot yet
This play is logged and priced. It will settle here, win or lose, and it will not move.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.17%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Aug 12Wed25−22+$4.49running +$837.683 voidcurrent model
Nick Loftin›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 7h 14m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 0+1.72%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at betPARX
Locked before the game7h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+158
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.72%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.72%
…of which: waiting paid+4.63%
…of which: market drift−2.91%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Max Muncy›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 4h 4m before the gameUnder 0.5+146 at DraftKingsproj 0.51 → 0+3.79%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+146 at DraftKings
Locked before the game4h 4m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+119
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.79%
AndréS Chaparro›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 10h 34m before the gameUnder 0.5+145 at betPARXproj 0.54 → 0+1.64%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+145 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 34m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+136
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.64%
Jacob Gonzalez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.58 → 0−1.54%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.54%
Carter Jensen›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 14h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.59 → 0+0.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game14h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+121
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.16%
Owen Caissie›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at betPARXproj 0.61 → 0+3.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Tyrone Taylor›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 14h 42m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.61 → 0−3.63%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game14h 42m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+133
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.63%
Ben Malgeri›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 12h before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.48 → 0−2.99%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+126
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.99%
Brett Baty›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 10h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.55 → 0−1.67%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game10h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.67%
Colton Cowser›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 10h 19m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.52 → 0+0.38%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game10h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.38%
Colson Montgomery›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 2h 34m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at betPARXproj 1.38 → 1+1.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 34m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-157
Where our side closed-141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.38 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.98%
Jose Ramirez›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.96 → 0+2.02%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.4%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.02%
Kody Clemens›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 12h before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.52 → 1+1.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.52 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.93%
Griffin Conine›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 8h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-133 at Novigproj 0.82 → 2+1.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.52
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-133 at Novig
Locked before the game8h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.93%
Jake Bauers›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 10h 59m before the gameOver 0.5-134 at ProphetXproj 1.04 → 1−0.96%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.31
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-134 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 59m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-134
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.04 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.31
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.96%
Ian Happ›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 11h 19m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at BetMGMproj 0.72 → 1+3.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.72 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.77%
Basis
Jeremy Pena›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 4h 1m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 1.02 → 1+3.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-176
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.77%
Brice Turang›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 1h 49m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at betPARXproj 1.63 → 1+4.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 49m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.63 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.25%
Spencer Torkelson›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 18h 37m before the gameOver 0.5-154 at ProphetXproj 1.16 → 1+0.31%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.36
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-154 at ProphetX
Locked before the game18h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-152
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.36
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.31%
Brandon Marsh›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 9h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-160 at BetMGMproj 1.16 → 0−1.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.25
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.22%
Jackson Holliday›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 12h before the gameUnder 1.5-158 at ProphetXproj 1.28 → 0+3.38%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-158 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.38%
Jackson Merrill›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 5h 39m before the gameOver 0.5-170 at Novigproj 1.22 → 1+0.39%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.88
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-170 at Novig
Locked before the game5h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.22 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.39%
Cole Young›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 1h 54m before the gameOver 0.5-178 at ProphetXproj 1.14 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.51
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-178 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.14 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.51
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Geraldo Perdomo›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 4 min before the gameOver 0.5-182 at betPARXproj 1.11 → 20.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.49
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-182 at betPARX
Locked before the game4 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250 on 1.5
Where our side closed-182
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jake Mangum›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 6h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-182 at Novigproj 1.07 → 0+1.14%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.49
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-182 at Novig
Locked before the game6h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.14%
Alan Roden›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 12h before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.41 → 3+2.31%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+108
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.31%
Brandon Nimmo›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 3h 50m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at BetMGMproj 1.18 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200 on 1.5
Where our side closed+230 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Carlos Cortes›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 8h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at ProphetXproj 0.44 → 1+4.93%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+133
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.93%
Carlos Narvaez›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 11h 54m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.36 → 1+0.91%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-104
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.91%
CéSar Prieto›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 2h 12m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0 → 1+0.56%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.0%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.56%
Charles McAdoo›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 11h 57m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at BetMGMproj 0.5 → 2+0.89%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 57m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+122
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.89%
Donovan Walton›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 6h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at BetMGMproj 0.47 → 1−3.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at BetMGM
Locked before the game6h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+116
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.70%
Elias Diaz›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 2h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at betPARXproj 0.56 → 1−0.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.32%
Gabriel Moreno›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 4h 14m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at betPARXproj 1.07 → 2−0.48%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-190 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-246
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.48%
Hao-Yu Lee›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+165 at ProphetXproj 0.64 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 at ProphetX
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Joc Pederson›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 9h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 1+0.75%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.75%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 10h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at ESPN BETproj 0.9 → 2+1.27%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-165 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.27%
Lane Thomas›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 17h 12m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ProphetXproj 0.5 → 1+1.85%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+122
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.85%
Munetaka Murakami›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 2h 34m before the gameOver 0.5-158 at ProphetXproj 0.98 → 0+1.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-158 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 34m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164
Where our side closed-172
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.22%
Nasim Nunez›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · total bases · priced 8h 44m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.57 → 1+2.44%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game8h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nick Allen›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 2h before the gameUnder 0.5+132 at ProphetXproj 0.36 → 1+0.21%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.21%
Nick Gonzales›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 12h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.32 → 3−0.88%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.32 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nolan Schanuel›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-178proj 0.84 → 0+2.41%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-178 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-198
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.41%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 11h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.62 → 1+0.09%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.09%
Starling Marte›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 11h 24m before the gameUnder 0.5+136 at ProphetXproj 0.53 → 1+0.27%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+136 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.27%
Taylor Trammell›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 1h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+145 at betPARXproj 0.64 → 1+4.03%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+145 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.03%
Taylor Walls›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 11h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.54 → 1+0.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.16%
Eduardo Valencia›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 10h 24m before the gameOver 0.5-164 at ProphetXproj 1.07+0.53%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-164 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 12h before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.64+1.97%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Wyatt Langford›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 11h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+182 at ProphetXproj 0.64+1.00%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+182 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed36.8%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 11Tue32−22+$102.72running +$833.202 voidcurrent model
Lars Nootbaar›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 4h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+200 at DraftKingsproj 0.62 → 0−0.52%CLV vs close✓ Won+$20.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+200 at DraftKings
Locked before the game4h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+194
Where our side closed+205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed35.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$20.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.52%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.55%
…of which: waiting paid+0.68%
…of which: market drift−1.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.68% + −1.23% = −0.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.52% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game32¢
With Kalshi’s fee34¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Michael Conforto›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+180 at betPARXproj 0.5 → 0+2.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.75%
Carlos Cortes›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at ESPN BETproj 0.44 → 0+0.66%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.66%
Jeremiah Jackson›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 1h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at ESPN BETproj 0.38 → 0+0.41%CLV vs close✓ Won+$16.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game1h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.38 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$16.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.41%
Oswald Peraza›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 3h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+143 at betPARXproj 0.47 → 0+0.05%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.30
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+143 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.30
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.05%
Alan Roden›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 10h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.42 → 0+3.27%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game10h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+116
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.27%
AndréS Chaparro›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 10h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at betPARXproj 0.55 → 0+2.29%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+112
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.29%
Charles McAdoo›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 3h 52m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at betPARXproj 0.56 → 0−0.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 52m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-132
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.93%
Jorge Polanco›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 2h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at BetMGMproj 0.37 → 0+12.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+117
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+12.57%
Luisangel Acuna›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 9h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 0.49 → 0+1.36%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game9h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.36%
Patrick Bailey›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 18h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+126proj 0.61 → 0+2.59%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+126 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game18h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+109
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.59%
Colton Cowser›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ProphetXproj 0.52 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$11.76
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-107
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.76
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at Novigproj 0.3 → 0+4.71%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-107
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.71%
Griffin Conine›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 46m before the gameOver 0.5+106 at ProphetXproj 0.78 → 1+3.38%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.39
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-124
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.78 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$10.39
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.38%
Jose Siri›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 17h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.52 → 0−0.50%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.50%
Joe Mack›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 3h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5-115 at BetMGMproj 0.63 → 0+0.90%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.90%
Basis
Nathan Lukes›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 1h 27m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at BetMGMproj 0.71 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game1h 27m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Osleivis Basabe›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 1h before the gameOver 0.5-119 at ProphetXproj 0.82 → 1+1.99%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.24
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-119 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-129
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.24
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.99%
Grant McCray›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 8h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5-128 at ProphetXproj 0.17 → 0+0.21%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.66
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-128 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.17 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$7.66
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.21%
Spencer Torkelson›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 45 min before the gameOver 0.5-129 at ProphetXproj 1.11 → 1+2.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.60
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-129 at ProphetX
Locked before the game45 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-163
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.00%
Jacob Young›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 56 min before the gameOver 0.5-132 at betPARXproj 0.77 → 2+1.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.58
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-132 at betPARX
Locked before the game56 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-138
Where our side closed-141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.77 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.58
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.61%
Jose Ramirez›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 6h 20m before the gameUnder 1.5-146 at ProphetXproj 1.05 → 0+1.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.71
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-146 at ProphetX
Locked before the game6h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-162
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.25%
Luis Rengifo›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 4h 25m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at BetMGMproj 0.83 → 2+1.83%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.83 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.83%
Bryson Stott›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 1h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-153 at Novigproj 1.13 → 1+3.55%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.54
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-153 at Novig
Locked before the game1h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-205
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.54
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.55%
Jackson Merrill›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 1h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.22 → 2+0.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.53
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.22 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.53
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.61%
Munetaka Murakami›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 16m before the gameOver 0.5-155 at BetMGMproj 0.98 → 1−0.80%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-155 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-181
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.80%
Masataka Yoshida›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 12 min before the gameOver 0.5-152 at ProphetXproj 0.84 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-152 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-147
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
George Springer›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · total bases · priced 19h 5m before the gameUnder 1.5-158 at Hard Rock Betproj 1.36 → 1+2.88%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-158 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game19h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-195
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.36 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.88%
Carson Benge›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameOver 0.5-166 at ProphetXproj 1.13 → 2not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.90
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-166 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-166
Where our side closed-130 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.90
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Zack Gelof›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 3h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at BetMGMproj 1.06 → 1+5.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-240
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.07%
Basis
Justin Crawford›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 11h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at BetMGMproj 1.22 → 0+2.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-200 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-223
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.22 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.4%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.25%
Steven Kwan›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 18h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-205proj 1.37 → 2−0.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.88
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-205 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game18h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-258
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$4.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.75%
A.J. Ewing›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 24 min before the gameOver 0.5-135 at DraftKingsproj 0.94 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-135 at DraftKings
Locked before the game24 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Alex Call›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · total bases · priced 2h before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.36 → 20.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.2%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Austin Wynns›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 1h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.36 → 1+1.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game1h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.22%
Brenton Doyle›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 3h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+190 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.63 → 1+3.98%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+190 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+131
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.98%
Christian Koss›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.47 → 1−0.83%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+108
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.83%
Cole Young›Seattle Mariners vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 50 min before the gameOver 0.5-156 at Novigproj 1.15 → 0+1.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-156 at Novig
Locked before the game50 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-201
Where our side closed-177
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.15 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.32%
Colt Keith›Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 10h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at Novigproj 0.99 → 0+1.54%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-162
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.54%
Corbin Carroll›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · total bases · priced 10h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5+120 at Novigproj 1.5 → 4+2.85%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+120 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+101
Where our side closed+107
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.5 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed47.3%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.85%
Donovan Walton›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.42 → 1+2.80%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.80%
Drake Baldwin›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 19 min before the gameOver 0.5-160 at ESPN BETproj 1.06 → 0−1.17%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game19 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.17%
Gunnar Henderson›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-228 at Novigproj 0.58 → 3−1.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-228 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-223
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed71.9%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.16%
Jakob Marsee›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 20 min before the gameOver 0.5+104 at Novigproj 0.75 → 0+5.11%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+104 at Novig
Locked before the game20 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-118
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.75 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.11%
Lawrence Butler›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 1.24 → 4+2.51%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.24 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.51%
Luis Robert Jr.›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 14 min before the gameUnder 0.5+165 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 1+10.83%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 at betPARX
Locked before the game14 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+10.83%
Nasim Nunez›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 5h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.48 → 1+0.68%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game5h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+112
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.68%
Pedro Pages›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 1h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.39 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game1h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.0%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Randal Grichuk›Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 0 min before the gameUnder 0.5+132 at betPARXproj 0.58 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 at betPARX
Locked before the game0 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+136
Where our side closed+132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 15h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ESPN BETproj 0.53 → 2−0.77%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game15h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.77%
Tim Tawa›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 11h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 2+0.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.22%
Yainer Diaz›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 8h 45m before the gameOver 0.5-194 at Novigproj 0.97 → 0−0.95%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-194 at Novig
Locked before the game8h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-235
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.95%
Yohel Pozo›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 2h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at BetMGMproj 0.49 → 1−0.08%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+144
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.08%
Zach Neto›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 13h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+190 at ESPN BETproj 0.68 → 2−1.15%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+190 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed36.4%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.15%
Keibert Ruiz›Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 10h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-132 at ProphetXproj 0.88+12.80%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-132 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed-230
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+12.80%
Travis D'Arnaud›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 13h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+114 at ESPN BETproj 0.47+9.44%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+114 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-153
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 10Mon21−9+$121.35running +$730.472 voidcurrent model
Lars Nootbaar›Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 19h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+180proj 0.62 → 0+1.32%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game19h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+155
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed37.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.32%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.32%
…of which: waiting paid+3.50%
…of which: market drift−2.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.50% + −2.18% = +1.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ryan Vilade›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+180proj 0.58 → 0+1.19%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+157
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed37.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.19%
Derek Hill›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 1h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at betPARXproj 0.33 → 0−0.60%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+155
Where our side closed+156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.33 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.60%
Donovan Walton›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+132proj 0.47 → 0+3.41%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.41%
Carlos Cortes›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+130proj 0.48 → 0−3.20%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.20%
Carson Williams›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.29 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220 on 1.5
Where our side closed-210 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.29 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Garrett Stubbs›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 1h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.13 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game1h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.13 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Starling Marte›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 11h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at betPARXproj 0.62 → 0+4.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.12%
Carlos Narvaez›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 9h 29m before the gameUnder 0.5+102 at betPARXproj 0.4 → 0+1.83%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+102 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.83%
Jose Siri›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 3h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+101 at DraftKingsproj 0.53 → 0+0.62%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+101 at DraftKings
Locked before the game3h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.62%
Grant McCray›Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 9h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.18 → 0+2.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.12%
CéSar Prieto›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 15h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ProphetXproj 0 → 0+0.33%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.33%
Gunnar Henderson›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 3h 54m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at ESPN BETproj 1.06 → 0+2.46%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.46%
Jac Caglianone›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 8h 59m before the gameOver 0.5-135 at DraftKingsproj 1.06 → 2−1.04%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.41
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-135 at DraftKings
Locked before the game8h 59m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-139
Where our side closed-134
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.41
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.04%
Jackson Merrill›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 1h 35m before the gameOver 0.5-138 at ProphetXproj 1.3 → 1+1.02%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.10
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-138 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-153
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.02%
Luis Robert Jr.›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · total bases · priced 11h 14m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 1.28 → 0+2.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.00%
Masataka Yoshida›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · total bases · priced 2h 32m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.28 → 0+0.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 32m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Brandon Marsh›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 9h 1m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at BetMGMproj 1.13 → 1−1.42%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-182
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.42%
Drake Baldwin›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 4 min before the gameOver 0.5-167 at Bally Betproj 1.02 → 20.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game4 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250
Where our side closed-167
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Athletics · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-180proj 0.9 → 1−1.35%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-180 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-217
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.35%
Shohei Ohtani›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 8h 24m before the gameOver 0.5-205 at ProphetXproj 1.21 → 1+0.70%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.78
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-205 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-251
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$4.78
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.70%
Austin Martin›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 15h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.44 → 4+2.63%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game15h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+145
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.5%
Actual4 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.63%
Caleb Durbin›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 11h 47m before the gameOver 0.5-182 at Novigproj 1.05 → 0+0.50%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-182 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 47m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-254
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.50%
Edmundo Sosa›Philadelphia Phillies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 1h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.52 → 2−0.36%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game1h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+155
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.36%
Fernando Tatis Jr.›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-172 at ProphetXproj 1.08 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-172 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-172
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jorge Polanco›New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 17h 12m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at DraftKingsproj 0.36 → 1+0.02%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+102
Where our side closed+117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.02%
Josh Smith›Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 3h 4m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Novigproj 0.53 → 1+1.64%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 4m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.64%
Leody Taveras›Baltimore Orioles vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 2h 39m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at betPARXproj 0.55 → 1+0.66%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.66%
Nick Loftin›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 4h 14m before the gameUnder 0.5+123 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 2+2.33%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+123 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.33%
Oswald Peraza›Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 2h 57m before the gameUnder 0.5+119 at ProphetXproj 0.43 → 1+1.04%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+119 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 57m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.04%
Enrique Hernandez›Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 16h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at DraftKingsproj 0.6+4.82%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-104
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Luis Campusano›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-113 at ProphetXproj 0.85+0.34%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-113 at ProphetX
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-127
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.1%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 9Sun32−22+$100.96running +$609.122 voidcurrent model
Jimmy Crooks›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 10h 29m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at ESPN BETproj 0.55 → 0−0.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$16.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$16.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.44%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.42%
…of which: waiting paid+8.05%
…of which: market drift−9.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.05% + −9.47% = −1.42%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
John Rave›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 14h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+156 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.56 → 0+4.80%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+156 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game14h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+128
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.80%
Jose Tena›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 1h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at BetMGMproj 0.54 → 0+0.82%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game1h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.82%
Jared Triolo›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 13h 32m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.47 → 0−0.89%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 32m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.89%
Kyle Isbel›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 2h 29m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at betPARXproj 0.6 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+126
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Miguel Rojas›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 9h 19m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at BetMGMproj 0.66 → 0+6.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.03%
Tyler Tolbert›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 14h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 0−3.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game14h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.48%
Brett Baty›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 11h before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at ESPN BETproj 0.59 → 0+6.66%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.66%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at ESPN BETproj 0.35 → 0+1.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.48%
Oswald Peraza›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 6h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.43 → 0+3.31%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.31%
Donovan Walton›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 9h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+116 at ProphetXproj 0.51 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$11.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+116 at ProphetX
Locked before the game9h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Josh Lowe›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 9h 54m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.46 → 0−2.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game9h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.53%
Rafael Flores›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 8h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.45 → 0−3.17%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.17%
Luisangel Acuna›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 2h 14m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at betPARXproj 0.49 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Elias Diaz›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 12h 32m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.56 → 0+0.37%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h 32m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.37%
Ryan McMahon›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 2h 34m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.51 → 0+0.62%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 34m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+101
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.62%
LaMonte Wade Jr.›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 17m before the gameUnder 0.5-106 at Novigproj 0.57 → 0+1.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.43
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-106 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 17m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-106
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.22%
Grant McCray›Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 1h 34m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at BetMGMproj 0.18 → 0+0.88%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game1h 34m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.88%
Gunnar Henderson›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 11h 9m before the gameUnder 1.5-110 at ESPN BETproj 1.19 → 0+5.42%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-137
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.4%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.42%
Weston Wilson›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 1h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5-114 at betPARXproj 0.5 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.77
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-114 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-145
Where our side closed-114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.77
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Nathan Lukes›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 8h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at BetMGMproj 0.79 → 1+1.87%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-124
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.79 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.87%
Henry Bolte›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 6h 24m before the gameOver 0.5-124 at DraftKingsproj 0.8 → 2+8.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-124 at DraftKings
Locked before the game6h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.4%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$8.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+8.93%
Basis
Jackson Holliday›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 7h 19m before the gameOver 0.5-139 at BetRiversproj 0.86 → 2+4.80%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.19
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-139 at BetRivers
Locked before the game7h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.19
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.80%
Davis Schneider›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 10h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 0.15 → 0+2.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.15 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.75%
Nick Loftin›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · total bases · priced 3h 20m before the gameUnder 1.5-143 at DraftKingsproj 1.2 → 0+2.69%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.99
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-143 at DraftKings
Locked before the game3h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.2 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.69%
Brandon Marsh›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 8h 5m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at BetMGMproj 1.09 → 1+0.78%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-162
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.09 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.4%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.78%
Kyle Karros›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 10h 29m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 1.19 → 1+2.13%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.13%
Tommy White›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 6h 29m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 1.06 → 0+2.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.75%
Cole Young›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 45m before the gameOver 0.5-154 at ProphetXproj 1.18 → 2+1.20%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.49
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-154 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.20%
Bryan Torres›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 11h 29m before the gameUnder 1.5-160 at ESPN BETproj 0.72 → 1not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$6.25
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.72 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Ildemaro Vargas›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 1h 4m before the gameOver 0.5-167 at BetRiversproj 0.95 → 1+1.35%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at BetRivers
Locked before the game1h 4m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-177
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.95 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.35%
Travis Bazzana›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 2h 39m before the gameUnder 1.5-168 at ProphetXproj 1.1 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$5.95
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-168 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.95
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
A.J. Ewing›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 13h 32m before the gameOver 0.5-178 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.98 → 0+0.26%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-178 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 32m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.26%
Adam Frazier›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 1h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+107 at betPARXproj 0.28 → 1−0.09%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+107 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+107
Where our side closed+107
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.28 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Andruw Monasterio›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 7h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-174 at ProphetXproj 1.08 → 0+3.11%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-174 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.11%
Brenton Doyle›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 3h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ESPN BETproj 0.68 → 30.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Christian Koss›Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 6h 29m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.37 → 1+2.08%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.08%
Colt Keith›Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 24 min before the gameOver 0.5-156 at Novigproj 0.99 → 0−0.46%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-156 at Novig
Locked before the game24 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-153
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.46%
Colton Cowser›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 12h before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.54 → 5+1.77%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.5%
Actual5 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.77%
Gavin Sheets›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 9h 24m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.49 → 1+1.23%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.23%
Ian Happ›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 4h 7m before the gameUnder 0.5+185 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.59 → 3+0.14%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+185 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game4h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed36.2%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.14%
Jake Mangum›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 8h 35m before the gameUnder 1.5-135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.5 → 5+1.76%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game8h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.5 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.5%
Actual5 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.76%
Jonah Heim›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 6h 39m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 1.49 → 2not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.49 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Jorbit Vivas›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 9h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.47 → 2−2.53%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.53%
Josh Bell›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 49 min before the gameOver 0.5-107 at BetRiversproj 0.97 → 0−0.01%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-107 at BetRivers
Locked before the game49 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.01%
Justin Foscue›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 12h before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.34 → 1+1.47%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.34 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.47%
Ketel Marte›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · total bases · priced 9h 19m before the gameUnder 1.5-113 at Novigproj 1.34 → 4+2.05%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-113 at Novig
Locked before the game9h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-126
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.34 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed55.5%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.05%
Myles Straw›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 3h before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at BetMGMproj 0.49 → 1+5.90%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.90%
Nasim Nunez›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 7h 16m before the gameUnder 0.5+138 at betPARXproj 0.44 → 1+0.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+138 at betPARX
Locked before the game7h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+143
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.00%
Randal Grichuk›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.58 → 1+4.63%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+116
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.63%
Randy Arozarena›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 50m before the gameOver 0.5-158 at ProphetXproj 1.05 → 0+1.03%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-158 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-225
Where our side closed-168
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.03%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 1h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at betPARXproj 0.54 → 1+5.87%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.87%
Taylor Trammell›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 39m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.64 → 1+1.11%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.11%
Taylor Walls›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · total bases · priced 9h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 0.68 → 1+2.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game9h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
CéSar Prieto›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 2h 29m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 00.00%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Petey Halpin›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.56not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Aug 8Sat21−20+$29.54running +$508.164 voidcurrent model
Austin Martin›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at BetMGMproj 0.44 → 0+0.14%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.14%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.45%
…of which: market drift−2.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.45% + −2.45% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Matt McLain›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 3h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+145 at BetMGMproj 0.53 → 0+0.85%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+145 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.85%
Garrett Mitchell›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 2h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+144 at DraftKingsproj 0.53 → 0+5.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.40
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+144 at DraftKings
Locked before the game2h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.40
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.53%
Connor Wong›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 16h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 0+1.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.24%
Myles Straw›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 14h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at DraftKingsproj 0.49 → 0+2.95%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.95%
Amed Rosario›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 15h 2m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.49 → 0+1.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game15h 2m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.75%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 3h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at ESPN BETproj 0.35 → 0+0.82%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.82%
Jorge Polanco›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 9h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.37 → 0+0.11%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game9h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.11%
Willson Contreras›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 9h 30m before the gameUnder 1.5+112 at betPARXproj 1.62 → 1+0.45%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+112 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-109
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.62 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$11.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.45%
Josh Lowe›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 4h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.46 → 0+0.08%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+111
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.08%
Leody Taveras›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 13h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ProphetXproj 0.51 → 0+0.11%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ProphetX
Locked before the game13h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.11%
Nasim Nunez›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 16h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+110proj 0.52 → 0−0.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game16h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.57%
Alika Williams›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.51 → 0−0.20%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.20%
Garrett Stubbs›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 3h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.14 → 0−0.29%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.14 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.29%
Grant McCray›Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 13h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.18 → 0+0.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.52
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game13h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.98%
Kyle Schwarber›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 2h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-106 at betPARXproj 1.25 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.43
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-106 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-121
Where our side closed-106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.25 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$9.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
James McCann›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 50 min before the gameOver 0.5-113 at ProphetXproj 1.23 → 1+0.88%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.85
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-113 at ProphetX
Locked before the game50 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-136
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.23 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.85
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.88%
Braden Montgomery›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 41m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at BetMGMproj 0.82 → 1+3.79%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.79%
Brice Turang›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 0 min before the gameOver 0.5-155 at BetRiversproj 1.18 → 30.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-155 at BetRivers
Locked before the game0 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.6%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Luis Robert Jr.›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 2h before the gameUnder 1.5-162 at betPARXproj 1 → 1−0.81%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.17
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-162 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-182
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.8%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.17
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.81%
Vaughn Grissom›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 8 min before the gameUnder 1.5-162 at Novigproj 1.42 → 0+2.71%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.17
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-162 at Novig
Locked before the game8 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-182
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.42 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.17
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.71%
Brayan Rocchio›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+174 at ProphetXproj 0.67 → 1+3.89%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+174 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+165
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.67 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.89%
Colt Emerson›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 29m before the gameOver 0.5+120 at Novigproj 0.7 → 0+0.94%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+101
Where our side closed+108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.94%
Colton Cowser›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5-115 at ProphetXproj 0.35 → 1+1.37%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+114
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.37%
Denzer Guzman›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 2h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Novigproj 0.55 → 1−1.24%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.24%
Esmerlyn Valdez›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 3h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.52 → 1+1.19%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+134
Where our side closed+118
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.19%
Gavin Sheets›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.45 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Heliot Ramos›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 3h 20m before the gameOver 0.5-138 at ProphetXproj 0.89 → 0+3.85%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-138 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.89 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.85%
Henry Bolte›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 16h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.03 → 4+2.38%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.03 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.1%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.38%
Jahmai Jones›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 16h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.35 → 3+0.48%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+133
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.0%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.48%
Jesus Sanchez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 16h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at DraftKingsproj 0.55 → 1−0.52%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.52%
Joc Pederson›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 8h 45m before the gameOver 0.5-141 at Novigproj 0.85 → 0+3.76%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-141 at Novig
Locked before the game8h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-184
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.76%
John Rave›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 3h 14m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.56 → 1+3.17%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 14m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.17%
Jordan Beck›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 19h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+152 at ProphetXproj 0.62 → 1+6.57%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+152 at ProphetX
Locked before the game19h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+152
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.57%
Jose Tena›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 3h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at BetMGMproj 0.5 → 1+1.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-107
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.32%
Jose Trevino›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 35 min before the gameOver 0.5-130 at Novigproj 0.95 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at Novig
Locked before the game35 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.95 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Justin Crawford›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at BetMGMproj 0.97 → 3+0.33%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190 on 0.5
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.6%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.33%
Kyle Stowers›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 9h 20m before the gameOver 0.5-164 at ProphetXproj 1 → 0+1.52%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-164 at ProphetX
Locked before the game9h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.52%
Luis Campusano›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 4h 11m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at Novigproj 0.86 → 0+4.84%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at Novig
Locked before the game4h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.84%
Michael Conforto›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 4h 24m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.41 → 1+1.01%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+139
Where our side closed+127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.01%
Trent Grisham›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 3h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at ProphetXproj 0.53 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+128
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Elias Diaz›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.56+2.90%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nelson Velazquez›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 9h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at ESPN BETproj 0.35not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Pedro Pages›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 15h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ProphetXproj 0.28not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.28 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Victor Caratini›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 10h 16m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ProphetXproj 0.52+2.01%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.9%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 7Fri24−24−$11.10running +$478.621 voidcurrent model
Bryan Torres›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 11h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at ProphetXproj 0.55 → 0+3.81%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.81%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.95%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift+0.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.96% + +0.98% = +3.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.81% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ian Happ›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 3h 9m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.63 → 0+0.78%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 9m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.78%
Trent Grisham›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 7h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at betPARXproj 0.57 → 0+0.14%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at betPARX
Locked before the game7h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
Where our side closed+145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.14%
Troy Johnston›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 1h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+144 at ProphetXproj 0.6 → 0−0.19%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.40
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+144 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.40
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.19%
Griffin Conine›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+143 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 0−1.15%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.30
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+143 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.30
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.15%
Nicky Lopez›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 4h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ProphetXproj 0.68 → 0+2.92%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.92%
Spencer Jones›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 8h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.58 → 0+2.86%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game8h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.86%
Cal Raleigh›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 8h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+111 at Novigproj 0.56 → 0+6.10%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+111 at Novig
Locked before the game8h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.10%
Edouard Julien›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 4h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.39 → 0+0.82%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.82%
Grant McCray›Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 14h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ProphetXproj 0.19 → 0+0.60%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ProphetX
Locked before the game14h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-112
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.60%
Ha-Seong Kim›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · total bases · priced 4h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at ESPN BETproj 0.11 → 0−1.65%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took-110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.11 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.65%
Jose Ramirez›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 15h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-110 at ProphetXproj 1.06 → 1+2.18%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-110 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.3%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.18%
Andres Gimenez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 1h 55m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at betPARXproj 0.77 → 1+0.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.77 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.12%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 7h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5-117 at ProphetXproj 0.49 → 0+0.47%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.55
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-117 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-145
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.55
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.47%
Xavier Edwards›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 11h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-132 at betPARXproj 1.13 → 0+6.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.58
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-132 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.58
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.00%
Henry Bolte›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 3h 35m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 1.04 → 0+5.17%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200 on 1
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.04 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.17%
Carson Kelly›Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals · total bases · priced 3h before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.03 → 1+2.36%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-177
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.03 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.5%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.36%
Jose Altuve›Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 1h 50m before the gameOver 0.5-167 at Novigproj 1.14 → 1+1.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at Novig
Locked before the game1h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.14 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.48%
Basis
Jarren Duran›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 15 min before the gameOver 0.5-168 at ProphetXproj 0.95 → 1+1.08%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.95
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-168 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.95 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.95
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.08%
Basis
Dylan Beavers›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 16h 13m before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at ESPN BETproj 0.85 → 1not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-180 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game16h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed+115 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Andruw Monasterio›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 3h 16m before the gameOver 0.5-186 at ProphetXproj 1.07 → 2+2.50%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.38
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-186 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-208
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.38
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.50%
Tommy Edman›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 15h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at ProphetXproj 0.82 → 2−0.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.48%
Caleb Durbin›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 10h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-194 at ProphetXproj 1.06 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.15
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-194 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-225 on 1.5
Where our side closed-194
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.15
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Evan Carter›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 11h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at ESPN BETproj 0.86 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-200 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-138 on 0.5
Where our side closed+110 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Austin Martin›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 15h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at ESPN BETproj 0.4 → 1+2.02%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game15h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.02%
Austin Wells›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 4h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5-112 at ProphetXproj 0.55 → 1+1.43%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-112 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-145
Where our side closed-127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.43%
Brett Baty›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 2h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.67 → 1+0.88%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.67 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.88%
Christian Encarnacion-Strand›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 11h 50m before the gameOver 0.5-160 at Novigproj 0.86 → 0not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-204
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Jake Rogers›Athletics vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 2h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.41 → 20.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jakob Marsee›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at betPARXproj 0.58 → 2−1.67%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.67%
Jesus Sanchez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 4h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at betPARXproj 0.63 → 1+1.36%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.36%
Jimmy Crooks›Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 1h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ProphetXproj 0.55 → 1+0.41%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+136
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.41%
Jose Tena›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.46 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+138
Where our side closed+128
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Josh Lowe›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.42 → 1+1.80%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.80%
Josh Smith›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 4h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at BetMGMproj 0.56 → 30.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-137
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.1%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 19h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-172 at DraftKingsproj 1.07 → 0+5.51%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-172 at DraftKings
Locked before the game19h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-232
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.51%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+122 at DraftKingsproj 0.3 → 1+0.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+122 at DraftKings
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.22%
Kyle Schwarber›Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 13h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-134 at betPARXproj 1.17 → 2+2.89%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-134 at betPARX
Locked before the game13h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-148
Where our side closed-151
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.17 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.2%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.89%
Lars Nootbaar›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+145 at betPARXproj 0.67 → 1+0.34%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+145 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+143
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.67 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.34%
Luis Lara›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at betPARXproj 0.57 → 2+0.08%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.08%
Luisangel Acuna›Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 9h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at Novigproj 0.53 → 2+2.35%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at Novig
Locked before the game9h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed-106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.35%
Matt McLain›Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Novigproj 0.44 → 2+1.15%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.15%
Moises Ballesteros›Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.61 → 1+3.10%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.10%
Pete Alonso›Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 12h 13m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at DraftKingsproj 1.01 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at DraftKings
Locked before the game12h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-222
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.01 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Rafael Flores›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.4 → 1+1.65%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.65%
Ryan Kreidler›Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.52 → 2+0.34%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.34%
Ryan McMahon›Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 5h before the gameUnder 0.5+103 at ProphetXproj 0.5 → 2+0.86%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+103 at ProphetX
Locked before the game5h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.86%
Taylor Ward›Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 3h 25m before the gameOver 0.5-116 at ProphetXproj 0.8 → 0+4.63%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-116 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.63%
Jhostynxon Garcia›New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.39−0.09%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.8%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 6Thu22−20+$19.37running +$489.724 voidcurrent model
Myles Straw›Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 2h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+180 at BetMGMproj 0.53 → 0−0.36%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+172
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.53 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.36%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.05%
…of which: waiting paid+9.74%
…of which: market drift−8.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+9.74% + −8.69% = +1.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.36% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Coby Mayo›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 4h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at betPARXproj 0.69 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Oswald Peraza›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 2h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+151 at BetOnlineproj 0.43 → 0+5.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+151 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.61%
Josh Lowe›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 6h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at BetMGMproj 0.47 → 0+0.73%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at BetMGM
Locked before the game6h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+126
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.73%
Ryan Kreidler›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 4h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+123 at ProphetXproj 0.52 → 0+3.47%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.30
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+123 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.30
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.47%
Esteury Ruiz›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 11h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.54 → 0+3.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.16%
Jacob Gonzalez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 9h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.58 → 0+1.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.44%
John Rave›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+115proj 0.67 → 0−0.32%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.67 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.32%
Colton Cowser›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 11h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetOnlineproj 0.42 → 0−0.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at BetOnline
Locked before the game11h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.25%
Jared Triolo›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · total bases · priced 11h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.59 → 0+5.21%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.21%
Alika Williams›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 8h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.6 → 0−2.51%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game8h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.51%
Colt Emerson›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 11h 31m before the gameOver 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.7 → 1+2.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-121
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.44%
Brian Navarreto›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 55 min before the gameUnder 0.5+104 at betPARXproj 0.25 → 0+0.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.40
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+104 at betPARX
Locked before the game55 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+104
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.25 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.40
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.98%
Davis Schneider›Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 2h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5-120 at BetMGMproj 0.19 → 0−1.21%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-129
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.21%
Francisco Alvarez›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 7h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at BetMGMproj 0.8 → 1+2.14%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-195
Where our side closed-153
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.14%
Henry Bolte›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 2h 29m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1 → 1+2.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.26%
Nick Sogard›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Bovadaproj 1.02 → 1−0.41%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Bovada
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.41%
Dylan Crews›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 9h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at betPARXproj 0.89 → 1+5.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-233
Where our side closed-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.89 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.48%
Andruw Monasterio›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 0 min before the gameOver 0.5-167 at BetOpenlyproj 1.06 → 20.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game0 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-167
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Nick Gonzales›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 1h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-175 at Bally Betproj 1.19 → 2+0.10%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game1h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-177
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.4%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.10%
Dillon Dingler›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 15m before the gameOver 0.5-176 at ProphetXproj 1.3 → 3+0.54%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.68
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-176 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-206
Where our side closed-188
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.3%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$5.68
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.54%
Tommy White›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 1h 44m before the gameOver 0.5-188 at ProphetXproj 1.1 → 2+0.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.32
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-188 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-194
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.32
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.57%
Basis
Alan Roden›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 3h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+132 at betPARXproj 0.43 → 1−0.72%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.72%
Anthony Seigler›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 1h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5+162 at BetOpenlyproj 0.66 → 2+1.20%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+162 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game1h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+154
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.20%
Brady House›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 9h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-136 at betPARXproj 0.81 → 0+3.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-136 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.16%
Brenton Doyle›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 2h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.5 → 1+2.27%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+137
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.27%
Carter Jensen›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 10h 6m before the gameUnder 0.5+200 at betPARXproj 0.6 → 1+1.48%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+200 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed36.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.48%
Christian Yelich›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 1h 20m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at ProphetXproj 0.85 → 0+3.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.16%
Cole Young›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 11h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at BetMGMproj 1.11 → 0+1.02%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-208
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.02%
Daylen Lile›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 9h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-113 at betPARXproj 0.81 → 0+7.27%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-113 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-156
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.27%
Harry Ford›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 9h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.45 → 1−0.18%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.18%
J.T. Realmuto›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 9h 11m before the gameUnder 1.5-134 at betPARXproj 1.23 → 3+1.46%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-134 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.23 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.2%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.46%
JJ Bleday›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h 59m before the gameUnder 0.5+180 at betPARXproj 0.6 → 2+0.65%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 59m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed37.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.65%
Basis
Lars Nootbaar›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 3h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+165 at betPARXproj 0.66 → 1+0.29%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+163
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.29%
Leo Jimenez›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 13h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.49 → 1+0.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.70%
Leo Rivas›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.21 → 1+1.92%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.92%
Luis Robert Jr.›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 13h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 30.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.0%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Luis Urias›Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 9h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5+165 at BetMGMproj 0.43 → 1+7.20%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130 on 1.5
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.20%
Moises Ballesteros›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 2h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+168 at ProphetXproj 0.56 → 1+4.35%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+168 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.35%
Pedro Ramirez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 6h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-124 at betPARXproj 0.98 → 0+1.45%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-124 at betPARX
Locked before the game6h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-156 on 1.5
Where our side closed-147
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.45%
Petey Halpin›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 9h 6m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.64 → 2−0.72%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.72%
Travis Bazzana›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 6h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-148 at betPARXproj 0.97 → 0+1.46%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-148 at betPARX
Locked before the game6h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-164
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.46%
Donovan Walton›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 8h 19m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 0.48+0.12%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game8h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jase Bowen›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.34not measurableno closing quotePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.34 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.9%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Josh Naylor›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-155 at DraftKingsproj 1.08not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-155 at DraftKings
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-191
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.›Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs · total bases · priced 1h 50m before the gameUnder 1.5-138 at ProphetXproj 1.16not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-138 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.9%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Aug 5Wed42−21+$243.95running +$470.355 voidcurrent model
Austin Martin›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+180 at DraftKingsproj 0.4 → 0+2.80%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+165
Where our side closed+165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed37.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.80%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.02%
…of which: waiting paid+2.02%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.02% + 0.00% = +2.02%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.80% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Luis Robert Jr.›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 11h 54m before the gameUnder 0.5+180 at betPARXproj 0.51 → 0+3.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$18.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed37.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$18.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.98%
Kyle Schwarber›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 7h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+172 at DraftKingsproj 0.68 → 0+0.02%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+172 at DraftKings
Locked before the game7h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+168
Where our side closed+164
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.02%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 8h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at betPARXproj 0.5 → 0−1.59%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at betPARX
Locked before the game8h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.59%
Trent Grisham›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 1h 4m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at ESPN BETproj 0.57 → 0−0.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$17.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game1h 4m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed38.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$17.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Victor Caratini›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 11h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at ESPN BETproj 0.61 → 0+3.21%CLV vs close✓ Won+$16.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$16.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.21%
Marcus Semien›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 11h 54m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at betPARXproj 0.66 → 0+4.59%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
Where our side closed+128
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.59%
Spencer Jones›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 12h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at BetMGMproj 0.58 → 0+1.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game12h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.24%
Bryan Torres›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 12h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at BetMGMproj 0.56 → 0+2.05%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at BetMGM
Locked before the game12h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.05%
Donovan Walton›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 14h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at DraftKingsproj 0.48 → 0+0.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+122
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.03%
Tristan Peters›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 3h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ProphetXproj 0.46 → 0+0.51%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+133
Where our side closed+135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.51%
Taylor Trammell›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 2h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+138 at Novigproj 0.64 → 0+2.04%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+138 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.04%
Max Muncy›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 8h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+126 at ProphetXproj 0.61 → 0−0.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+126 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+109
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.25%
Joe Mack›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 3h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at BetMGMproj 0.68 → 0−0.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.43%
Basis
Jared Triolo›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 17h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.55 → 0+2.55%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.55%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.35 → 0−1.66%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.66%
Cal Raleigh›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+114 at betPARXproj 0.56 → 0−0.86%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.40
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+114 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+118
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.56 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.40
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.86%
Esmerlyn Valdez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 2h 19m before the gameUnder 0.5+114 at betPARXproj 0.57 → 0+0.23%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.40
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+114 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.40
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.23%
Jorbit Vivas›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 11h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5+113 at Novigproj 0.48 → 0+0.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.30
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+113 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.30
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.26%
Connor Wong›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 11h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at betPARXproj 0.42 → 0+1.17%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-112
Where our side closed+106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.17%
Garrett Mitchell›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 17h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at DraftKingsproj 0.65 → 0−1.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.24%
Jase Bowen›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+110proj 0.34 → 0+3.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.34 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.61%
Bobby Witt Jr.›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · total bases · priced 7h before the gameUnder 1.5+106 at betPARXproj 1.52 → 0+1.46%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.60
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+106 at betPARX
Locked before the game7h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.52 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$10.60
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.46%
Drew Romo›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 4h before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.36 → 0+1.02%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.02%
Basis
Grant McCray›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 7h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5-104 at DraftKingsproj 0.19 → 0+0.46%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.62
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-104 at DraftKings
Locked before the game7h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-104
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.62
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.46%
Rafael Flores›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 6h 54m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at BetMGMproj 0.44 → 0+2.70%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.52
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game6h 54m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-131
Where our side closed-117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.70%
Carlos Narvaez›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 10h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5-107 at betPARXproj 0.4 → 0+2.33%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.35
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-107 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.35
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.33%
Petey Halpin›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at DraftKingsproj 0.68 → 0−6.04%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−6.04%
Ronald Acuna Jr.›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · total bases · priced 10h 50m before the gameUnder 1.5-124 at betPARXproj 1.33 → 1+3.15%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.06
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-124 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.33 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.4%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$8.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.15%
Tim Tawa›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 3h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at Novigproj 0.7 → 2+4.11%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-158
Where our side closed-154
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.11%
Basis
Tommy Edman›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.42 → 1−3.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.42 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.8%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.03%
Christian Walker›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 7h 29m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ProphetXproj 0.87 → 2+2.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-144
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.87 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.24%
Jose Altuve›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 14h 7m before the gameOver 0.5-154 at ProphetXproj 1.1 → 2+6.58%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.49
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-154 at ProphetX
Locked before the game14h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.58%
Daulton Varsho›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · total bases · priced 10h 44m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.1 → 1+0.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.45
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game10h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.3%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.45
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Caleb Durbin›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 10h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-159 at BetRiversproj 0.97 → 1+3.52%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.29
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-159 at BetRivers
Locked before the game10h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.29
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.52%
Bryan Reynolds›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · total bases · priced 9h 19m before the gameUnder 1.5-160 at Novigproj 1.29 → 1not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$6.25
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game9h 19m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-204
Where our side closed+140 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.29 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.5%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Michael Massey›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 10h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-160 at Novigproj 0.8 → 2+1.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.25
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-205
Where our side closed-182
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.12%
Dillon Dingler›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at ProphetXproj 1.21 → 2−0.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at ProphetX
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-168
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.77%
Michael Harris II›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 9h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-180 at ESPN BETproj 0.92 → 2+0.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-180 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-238
Where our side closed-212
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.92 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.44%
Steven Kwan›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 2h 37m before the gameOver 0.5-182 at ProphetXproj 1.31 → 1+1.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.49
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-182 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-212
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.31 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.57%
Jac Caglianone›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 11h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-186 at Novigproj 0.84 → 1+3.91%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.38
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-186 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-254
Where our side closed-222
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.38
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.91%
Brandon Marsh›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 11h 55m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at Novigproj 0.77 → 1+3.23%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-242
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.77 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.23%
Austin Wells›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 3h 24m before the gameUnder 0.5+113 at BetOnlineproj 0.51 → 1+1.57%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+113 at BetOnline
Locked before the game3h 24m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.57%
Coby Mayo›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 3h before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at betPARXproj 0.64 → 2+3.03%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+131
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Cole Young›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 45m before the gameOver 0.5-186 at Novigproj 1.23 → 0+0.40%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-186 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-209
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.23 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.40%
Basis
Eduardo Valencia›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 1h 11m before the gameOver 0.5-109 at Bally Betproj 1.27 → 0+0.23%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-109 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game1h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-112
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.27 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.23%
Elias Diaz›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 3h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at BetMGMproj 0.52 → 1−1.83%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.83%
Ezequiel Tovar›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at ESPN BETproj 0.68 → 1−0.17%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+150
Where our side closed+163
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.17%
Ian Happ›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 7h 40m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at BetMGMproj 0.71 → 0+2.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.78%
Basis
Isaac Paredes›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 10h 59m before the gameOver 0.5-154 at ProphetXproj 0.89 → 0not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-154 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 59m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.89 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Ivan Herrera›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · total bases · priced 6h 2m before the gameUnder 1.5-141 at ESPN BETproj 1.32 → 2+5.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-141 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 2m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-193
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.32 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.3%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.78%
Jorge Polanco›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 14h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.35 → 2+4.20%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game14h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.20%
Jose Siri›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 18h 33m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.43 → 1+2.25%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game18h 33m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.25%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 8h 11m before the gameUnder 2.5-115 at BetMGMproj 2.16 → 4+2.07%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 2.5 total bases
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150 on 1.5
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.16 total bases
The market’s line2.5
Probability we displayed57.1%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.07%
Justin Foscue›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 7h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at BetMGMproj 0.38 → 1+1.89%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.38 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.89%
Leody Taveras›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 10h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at betPARXproj 0.47 → 1+1.34%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+131
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.34%
Matt McLain›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 5h 44m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at BetMGMproj 0.41 → 1+3.30%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game5h 44m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+108
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.30%
Miguel Rojas›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 1h 55m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.65 → 2+1.46%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game1h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.46%
Nick Sogard›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · hits · priced 55 min before the gameOver 0.5-141 at Novigproj 0.81 → 0+1.81%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-141 at Novig
Locked before the game55 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.81%
Spencer Torkelson›Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 7h 15m before the gameOver 0.5-110 at BetMGMproj 0.94 → 0−0.15%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.15%
Tyler Locklear›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 3h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5+118 at BetOnlineproj 0.67 → 2+1.11%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+118 at BetOnline
Locked before the game3h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.67 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.11%
Tyrone Taylor›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+132 at betPARXproj 0.61 → 1+1.18%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.18%
Victor Mesa Jr.›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 8h 11m before the gameUnder 1.5-210 at BetMGMproj 0.5 → 2−2.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-210 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+196 on 0.5
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed71.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.32%
Alejandro Osuna›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 3h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+124 at BetOnlineproj 0.62+1.55%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+124 at BetOnline
Locked before the game3h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Carlos Cortes›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.44+2.38%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.3%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Christian Koss›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 4h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+102 at betPARXproj 0.42+3.98%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+102 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.98%
Denzer Guzman›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 7h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.64+2.08%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game7h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+145
Where our side closed+122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Troy Johnston›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 9h 6m before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at ESPN BETproj 0.81not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-180 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.4%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Aug 4Tue29−20+$48.46running +$226.395 voidcurrent model
Alan Roden›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · hits · priced 11h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5+165 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 0.48 → 0+0.95%CLV vs close✓ Won+$16.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+165 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game11h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$16.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.95%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.48%
…of which: waiting paid+0.73%
…of which: market drift+0.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.73% + +0.75% = +1.48%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.95% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Donovan Walton›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 8h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ESPN BETproj 0.49 → 0+2.83%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game8h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+130
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.83%
Rhys Hoskins›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 8h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetOpenlyproj 0.48 → 0+0.85%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game8h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+111
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.85%
Christian Koss›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 14h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.44 → 0+1.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game14h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.22%
Jacob Gonzalez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 1h 39m before the gameOver 0.5+110 at betPARXproj 0.63 → 1+0.92%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.92%
Jose Siri›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 14h 33m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Fliffproj 0.43 → 0+2.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Fliff
Locked before the game14h 33m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.98%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h 39m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.35 → 0−0.90%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game4h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.90%
Nasim Nunez›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 1h 4m before the gameOver 0.5+108 at BetRiversproj 0.65 → 1+1.92%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.80
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+108 at BetRivers
Locked before the game1h 4m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-114
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$10.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.92%
Grant McCray›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 18h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.2 → 0+4.21%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game18h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-119
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.2 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.21%
Justin Foscue›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 2h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at BetOnlineproj 0.38 → 0+0.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.52
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.38 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.12%
Endy Rodriguez›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 1h 39m before the gameOver 0.5-106 at betPARXproj 0.96 → 1−1.46%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.43
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-106 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$9.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.46%
Nathan Church›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-106 at betPARXproj 0.68 → 1+7.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.43
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-106 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-142
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.68 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$9.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.22%
Dansby Swanson›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 1h before the gameOver 0.5-111 at ProphetXproj 0.81 → 3+1.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.01
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-111 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.4%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$9.01
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.09%
Gunnar Henderson›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 7h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-112 at betPARXproj 1.49 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.93
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-112 at betPARX
Locked before the game7h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.49 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed55.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.93
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 4h 41m before the gameUnder 2.5-120 at Bovadaproj 2.12 → 2+1.79%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 2.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at Bovada
Locked before the game4h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150 on 1.5
Where our side closed-129
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.12 total bases
The market’s line2.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual2 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.79%
Max Muncy›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · total bases · priced 1h 5m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at Novigproj 1.15 → 0+2.90%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at Novig
Locked before the game1h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.15 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.90%
Ryan Waldschmidt›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 3h before the gameOver 0.5-121 at ProphetXproj 1.01 → 1+1.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-121 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.01 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.77%
Carson Benge›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 12h 37m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ProphetXproj 0.96 → 1+1.67%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.67%
Blaze Jordan›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at Bally Betproj 0.84 → 1+1.54%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.54%
Dylan Beavers›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 9h 15m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.06 → 0−0.40%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game9h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jonathan Aranda›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 14h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-150proj 1.03 → 1+2.96%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-150 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.03 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.96%
Pete Crow-Armstrong›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 2h 35m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.02 → 20.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-194
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Daulton Varsho›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · total bases · priced 11h 30m before the gameUnder 1.5-167 at Novigproj 1.14 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-167 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-195 on 0.5
Where our side closed+135 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.14 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Bryson Stott›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 14h 37m before the gameOver 0.5-175 at DraftKingsproj 0.91 → 2+1.88%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-244
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.91 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.88%
Jake Mangum›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 49 min before the gameOver 0.5-175 at betPARXproj 1.11 → 1−1.37%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at betPARX
Locked before the game49 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-215
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.37%
Brandon Nimmo›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 4h 50m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at ProphetXproj 1.01 → 30.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-234 on 1.5
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.01 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jo Adell›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 3h 35m before the gameOver 0.5-192 at ProphetXproj 0.76 → 2+1.99%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.21
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-192 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.21
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.99%
Basis
Jackson Merrill›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 11h 10m before the gameOver 0.5-194 at ProphetXproj 1.25 → 3+1.23%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.15
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-194 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-239
Where our side closed-205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.25 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.2%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$5.15
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.23%
Victor Mesa Jr.›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-220 at BetMGMproj 0.51 → 0+1.06%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.55
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-220 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250 on 0.5
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed71.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$4.55
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.06%
Austin Hedges›New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 3h 35m before the gameOver 0.5+114 at BetRiversproj 0.78 → 0+4.01%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+114 at BetRivers
Locked before the game3h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.78 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.01%
Brandon Marsh›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 7h 15m before the gameUnder 1.5-135 at BetMGMproj 1.1 → 2+1.06%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-135 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.6%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.06%
Henry Bolte›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 5h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at ESPN BETproj 0.99 → 3+1.17%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-180 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game5h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.4%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.17%
Jase Bowen›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.3 → 1+2.71%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.71%
Jordan Beck›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 4h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at ESPN BETproj 0.81 → 3+7.67%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175 on 0.5
Where our side closed-192
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.1%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.67%
Josh Bell›Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals · total bases · priced 3h 5m before the gameUnder 1.5-112 at betPARXproj 1.2 → 5+0.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-112 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.2 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.5%
Actual5 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.22%
Josh Lowe›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 14h 33m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at Fliffproj 0.42 → 2not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at Fliff
Locked before the game14h 33m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Justin Crawford›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 7h 15m before the gameUnder 1.5-185 at BetMGMproj 0.8 → 2−0.84%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-185 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190 on 0.5
Where our side closed-185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Kyle Schwarber›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 45 min before the gameOver 0.5-180 at ProphetXproj 0.76 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-180 at ProphetX
Locked before the game45 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-261
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Masataka Yoshida›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 3h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-144 at ProphetXproj 0.98 → 3+0.91%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-144 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.8%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.91%
Matt McLain›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.36 → 1+3.21%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.21%
Myles Straw›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 18h 12m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at DraftKingsproj 0.4 → 2+2.71%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at DraftKings
Locked before the game18h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+102
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.71%
Nelson Velazquez›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.3 → 1−0.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.70%
Nick Gonzales›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 53 min before the gameOver 0.5-159 at betPARXproj 1.27 → 0−0.05%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-159 at betPARX
Locked before the game53 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.27 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.05%
Owen Caissie›Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 15h 13m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.7 → 0+3.03%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game15h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Pedro Pages›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 17h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at ESPN BETproj 0.24 → 1+2.17%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.24 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.17%
Randal Grichuk›Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox · total bases · priced 13h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-140proj 0.96 → 2+3.53%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-195
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.53%
Ryan McMahon›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 8h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at betPARXproj 0.5 → 1−0.09%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at betPARX
Locked before the game8h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Tyler Stephenson›Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 16h 37m before the gameOver 0.5-170 at DraftKingsproj 1 → 0+0.20%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-170 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-221
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.20%
Yandy Diaz›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 4h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-124 at DraftKingsproj 0.98 → 2+2.09%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-124 at DraftKings
Locked before the game4h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.09%
Eliezer Alfonzo›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 14h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at DraftKingsproj 0.42+6.54%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Henry Davis›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 13h 37m before the gameOver 0.5+115 at DraftKingsproj 0.59+1.34%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game13h 37m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+114
Where our side closed+109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.34%
Ildemaro Vargas›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · total bases · priced 11h 16m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at ESPN BETproj 1.25+1.80%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-213
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.25 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Luis Campusano›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 3h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-134 at ProphetXproj 0.87+6.37%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-134 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-141
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.87 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Yohel Pozo›Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 9h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.45+0.98%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game9h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.4%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 3Mon15−18−$65.91running +$177.942 voidcurrent model
Grant McCray›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 20h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+112 at Fliffproj 0.2 → 0+3.84%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.20
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+112 at Fliff
Locked before the game20h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.2 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.84%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.83%
…of which: waiting paid+8.39%
…of which: market drift−5.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.39% + −5.56% = +2.83%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.84% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Garrett Stubbs›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 2h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+108 at betPARXproj 0.18 → 0+0.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+108 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+108
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.18 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.22%
Kyle Schwarber›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 3h 21m before the gameUnder 1.5-108 at betPARXproj 1.47 → 0+3.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.26
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-108 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-124
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.47 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed55.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.43%
Yandy Diaz›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 1h 16m before the gameUnder 1.5-108 at BetOpenlyproj 1.03 → 0+2.63%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.26
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-108 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game1h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-119
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.03 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed53.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.63%
Jesus Sanchez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 16h 7m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.76 → 1+2.90%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game16h 7m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.90%
Jackson Chourio›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · total bases · priced 9h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-132 at betPARXproj 1.49 → 0+0.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.58
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-132 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-134
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.49 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.58
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.16%
Daulton Varsho›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · total bases · priced 11h 30m before the gameUnder 1.5-134 at ReBetproj 1.19 → 1+5.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.46
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-134 at ReBet
Locked before the game11h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-179
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.46
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.00%
Jasson DomíNguez›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · total bases · priced 10h 41m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 1.34 → 1+2.60%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-176
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.34 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.60%
Jake Mangum›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · total bases · priced 10h 36m before the gameUnder 1.5-141 at betPARXproj 1.45 → 1+1.81%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-141 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-176
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.45 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.81%
William Contreras›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · total bases · priced 6h 35m before the gameUnder 1.5-141 at betPARXproj 1.37 → 0−0.35%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-141 at betPARX
Locked before the game6h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-199
Where our side closed-139
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.37 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.35%
George Springer›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.13 → 1+1.34%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.34%
Willy Adames›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · total bases · priced 7h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Novigproj 1.41 → 0+2.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Novig
Locked before the game7h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175 on 0.5
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.41 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.26%
Freddie Freeman›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 11h 41m before the gameOver 0.5-184 at ProphetXproj 1.47 → 1+2.42%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.43
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-184 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.42%
Shohei Ohtani›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 9h 46m before the gameOver 0.5-196 at ProphetXproj 1.17 → 2−0.40%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.10
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-196 at ProphetX
Locked before the game9h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-215
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.17 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.40%
Edmundo Sosa›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · total bases · priced 5h 50m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.63 → 1−0.64%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-200 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game5h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Austin Wells›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 17h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at Fliffproj 0.5 → 2−3.02%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at Fliff
Locked before the game17h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.02%
Austin Wynns›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 3h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+118 at BetOnlineproj 0.21 → 1+1.98%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+118 at BetOnline
Locked before the game3h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.98%
Bryan De La Cruz›Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies · hits · priced 36 min before the gameOver 0.5-156 at ProphetXproj 1.12 → 0+4.10%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-156 at ProphetX
Locked before the game36 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.12 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.10%
Cedric Mullins›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 9h 16m before the gameUnder 1.5-182 at betPARXproj 0.63 → 2+2.02%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-182 at betPARX
Locked before the game9h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-195
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.02%
Christian Koss›San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers · hits · priced 11h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at ESPN BETproj 0.37 → 1+0.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.78%
Cooper Pratt›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 10h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-112 at BetRiversproj 0.96 → 0+4.07%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-112 at BetRivers
Locked before the game10h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.07%
Eliezer Alfonzo›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 4h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at ESPN BETproj 0.36 → 1+1.87%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game4h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.87%
Ezequiel Tovar›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 18h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+137proj 0.46 → 4+0.10%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+137 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game18h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual4 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.10%
Jake Cronenworth›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 23h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-184proj 0.92 → 0+2.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-184 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game23h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-184
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.92 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.22%
Jimmy Crooks›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 19h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5-133 at Fliffproj 0.41 → 1+2.38%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-133 at Fliff
Locked before the game19h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
Where our side closed-142
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.38%
Junior Caminero›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 5h 26m before the gameUnder 2.5-140 at ProphetXproj 1.82 → 80.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 2.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game5h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.82 total bases
The market’s line2.5
Probability we displayed60.3%
Actual8 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Kevin Alcantara›Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 3 min before the gameUnder 0.5-120 at betPARXproj 0.24 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at betPARX
Locked before the game3 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.24 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Richie Palacios›Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 14h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-150proj 0.85 → 5−0.33%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.3%
Actual5 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Ryan McMahon›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 17h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+130proj 0.46 → 2−1.45%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.45%
Ryan Waldschmidt›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · hits · priced 1h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-110 at ProphetXproj 1.02 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Sung-Mun Song›San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks · total bases · priced 3h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+150 at BetOnlineproj 0.46 → 1+3.22%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+150 at BetOnline
Locked before the game3h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-233 on 1.5
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.22%
Taylor Trammell›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11h 50m before the gameOver 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.61 → 0+5.87%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-119
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.87%
Trent Grisham›St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees · hits · priced 13h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+180proj 0.49 → 2+1.62%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+180 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+173
Where our side closed+175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed36.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.62%
Jhostynxon Garcia›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5-116 at DraftKingsproj 0.48−5.56%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-116 at DraftKings
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.8%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
LaMonte Wade Jr.›Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5-105 at ProphetXproj 0.46−3.14%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed+108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 2Sun33−20+$54.33running +$243.858 voidcurrent model
Jorge Polanco›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 6h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at ESPN BETproj 0.36 → 0+3.33%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game6h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.33%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+3.17%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.17% + 0.00% = +3.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.33% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Nick Allen›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 2h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.37 → 0+3.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.37 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.57%
Matt McLain›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 2h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+111 at Novigproj 0.41 → 0+0.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+111 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.77%
Eliezer Alfonzo›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 4h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.4 → 0+1.70%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game4h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.70%
Myles Straw›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 11h 18m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.32 → 0−3.17%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 18m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.32 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.17%
Connor Wong›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 7h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5-104 at BetOnlineproj 0.47 → 0−0.49%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.62
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-104 at BetOnline
Locked before the game7h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-126
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.62
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.49%
Kyle Schwarber›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 6h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-115 at ProphetXproj 1.48 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-115 at ProphetX
Locked before the game6h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.48 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Luis Campusano›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-117 at Novigproj 0.89 → 1+2.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.55
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-117 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.89 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.55
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.09%
Ezequiel Tovar›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 11h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at ESPN BETproj 0.71 → 0+7.29%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.9%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.29%
Tyler Tolbert›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 11h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.82 → 0+2.32%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Zach Neto›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 6h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at BetMGMproj 0.8 → 1−1.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game6h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.07%
Basis
Carlos Narvaez›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 1h 35m before the gameUnder 0.5-125 at betPARXproj 0.41 → 0−0.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+102
Where our side closed-124
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Colton Cowser›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 3h 6m before the gameUnder 0.5-125 at BetMGMproj 0.31 → 0+0.56%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.31 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.56%
Jose Ramirez›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · total bases · priced 4h before the gameUnder 1.5-127 at betPARXproj 1.11 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.87
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-127 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.2%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.87
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Josh Lowe›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 2h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5-127 at BetOnlineproj 0.46 → 0+4.05%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.87
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-127 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$7.87
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.05%
Leo Rivas›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 1h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5-130 at betPARXproj 0.21 → 0−0.55%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.55%
Liam Hicks›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 10h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-133 at Novigproj 1.25 → 1+1.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.52
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-133 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.25 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.4%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.93%
Carson Benge›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 10h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-138 at Novigproj 1.27 → 0+3.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.25
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-138 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.27 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.09%
Jac Caglianone›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 0.8 → 1+3.64%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-184
Where our side closed-163
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.64%
Seiya Suzuki›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 1h before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ProphetXproj 1.05 → 2+0.28%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-144
Where our side closed-144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.28%
Basis
Keibert Ruiz›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 25 min before the gameOver 0.5-144 at ProphetXproj 0.69 → 1+4.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.94
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-144 at ProphetX
Locked before the game25 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-198
Where our side closed-176
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.94
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.75%
Brandon Nimmo›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 3h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at Novigproj 1.05 → 2+3.50%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.50%
Basis
Carter Jensen›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 46m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 0.85 → 0+3.71%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.71%
Jake Cronenworth›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 4h 25m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 0.96 → 1+2.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.26%
Xavier Edwards›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 2h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.06 → 1+1.36%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-163
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.36%
Nico Hoerner›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 16h 18m before the gameOver 0.5-164 at ProphetXproj 1.41 → 1−0.29%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.10
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-164 at ProphetX
Locked before the game16h 18m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.29%
Carlos Cortes›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 2h 41m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.9 → 0+1.01%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game2h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175 on 0.5
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.01%
Jonathan Aranda›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · total bases · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-177 at betPARXproj 1.24 → 1+0.32%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.65
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-177 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190 on 0.5
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.24 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.2%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.65
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.32%
Ryan Jeffers›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 18h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-180 at ProphetXproj 1.08 → 1−2.66%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-180 at ProphetX
Locked before the game18h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.66%
Luis Rengifo›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 6h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-182 at betPARXproj 1.4 → 1−0.25%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.49
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-182 at betPARX
Locked before the game6h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250 on 0.5
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.4 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.2%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.25%
Starling Marte›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 4h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at Novigproj 0.65 → 1+1.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-190 at Novig
Locked before the game4h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-199
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.00%
Gleyber Torres›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-196 at BetOnlineproj 0.87 → 1+3.63%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-196 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275 on 0.5
Where our side closed-250
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.87 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.63%
Steven Kwan›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 10h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-220 at ProphetXproj 1.35 → 1−0.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.55
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-220 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-230
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed71.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$4.55
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.43%
Alex Bregman›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 5h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-138 at ProphetXproj 1.19 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-138 at ProphetX
Locked before the game5h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-138
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Amed Rosario›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 2h 18m before the gameUnder 0.5+175 at betPARXproj 0.49 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+175 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 18m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+175
Where our side closed+175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.49 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
AndréS Chaparro›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 1 min before the gameOver 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.57 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game1 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.57 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Chandler Simpson›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · total bases · priced 5h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-162 at betPARXproj 1.36 → 3+1.80%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-162 at betPARX
Locked before the game5h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-260
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.36 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.5%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.80%
Dillon Dingler›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 3h before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at ESPN BETproj 1.12 → 2−1.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.12 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.32%
Drew Gilbert›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-105 at BetMGMproj 0.73 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.73 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Everson Pereira›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 1h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at betPARXproj 0.45 → 2+2.20%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+106
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.20%
Garrett Mitchell›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 1h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at Novigproj 0.82 → 0+2.55%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at Novig
Locked before the game1h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164
Where our side closed-167
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.55%
Gavin Sheets›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.46 → 1−0.55%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.55%
Jake Rogers›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 9h 33m before the gameUnder 0.5-122 at BetOnlineproj 0.41 → 1+1.31%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-122 at BetOnline
Locked before the game9h 33m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed-132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.31%
Jordan Walker›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · total bases · priced 3h 53m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at betPARXproj 1.44 → 2+0.52%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 53m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.44 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.52%
Julio Rodriguez›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · total bases · priced 12h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-133 at Hard Rock Betproj 1.37 → 2+5.18%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-133 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.37 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.8%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.18%
LaMonte Wade Jr.›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 9h 51m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.45 → 1not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Lars Nootbaar›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · total bases · priced 3h 53m before the gameUnder 1.5-146 at DraftKingsproj 0.86 → 2−0.63%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-146 at DraftKings
Locked before the game3h 53m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.63%
Luis Urias›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 11h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+149 at BetOnlineproj 0.39 → 1−1.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+149 at BetOnline
Locked before the game11h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.70%
Nolan Schanuel›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 2h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-132 at ProphetXproj 1.05 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-132 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Owen Caissie›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 10h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.7 → 0+2.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game10h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.16%
Ryan McMahon›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 10h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.42 → 1+0.42%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.42%
Tommy White›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 2h 35m before the gameOver 0.5-186 at ProphetXproj 1.21 → 0+3.72%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-186 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.21 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.72%
Victor Robles›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 8h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ProphetXproj 0.5 → 1−0.92%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-103
Where our side closed+114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.92%
Coby Mayo›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 4h 56m before the gameOver 0.5+122 at Novigproj 0.6+2.57%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+122 at Novig
Locked before the game4h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.6 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.5%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.57%
Davis Schneider›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 10h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5-130 at ESPN BETproj 0.23+1.12%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-137
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.23 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.9%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jacob Young›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 4h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.77+5.38%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-135 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game4h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-162
Where our side closed-169
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.77 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.3%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jahmai Jones›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 13h 18m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.35+2.82%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 18m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+116
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.82%
Jorge Soler›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 6h 51m before the gameOver 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.66+4.05%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game6h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.9%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.05%
Nick Kurtz›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 6h 1m before the gameUnder 1.5+106 at betPARXproj 1.13+0.48%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+106 at betPARX
Locked before the game6h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.1%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Ryan Waldschmidt›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 10h 35m before the gameOver 0.5+115 at Novigproj 1.02+1.64%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at Novig
Locked before the game10h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-104
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Yohel Pozo›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 4h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.45+1.70%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game4h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.1%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Aug 1Sat27−26−$20.49running +$189.526 voidcurrent model
Ezequiel Tovar›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 14h 12m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at ESPN BETproj 0.47 → 0+0.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$15.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game14h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$15.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.12%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.47%
…of which: waiting paid−0.75%
…of which: market drift+1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.75% + +1.22% = +0.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Gavin Sheets›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 18h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+141 at Novigproj 0.46 → 0+1.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+141 at Novig
Locked before the game18h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+141
Where our side closed+122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.93%
Max Schuemann›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 1h 15m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at BetMGMproj 0.42 → 0−0.87%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at BetMGM
Locked before the game1h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.87%
Weston Wilson›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 14h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at BetOnlineproj 0.46 → 0+9.63%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at BetOnline
Locked before the game14h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+128
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+9.63%
Jase Bowen›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Novigproj 0.3 → 0+2.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.3 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.07%
Tristan Peters›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 1h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5+118 at ProphetXproj 0.5 → 0+0.58%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+118 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.58%
Austin Martin›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.41 → 0+1.23%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.23%
Travis D'Arnaud›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 3h 58m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.47 → 0−0.91%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 58m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.91%
David Fry›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 4h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at betPARXproj 0.23 → 0+0.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+112
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.23 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.77%
Rafael Flores›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 2h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 00.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Drew Gilbert›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 2h 30m before the gameOver 0.5-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.64 → 2+1.11%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.64 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.11%
Jose Ramirez›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · total bases · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 1.5-110proj 1.27 → 0−1.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-110 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-120
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.27 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.16%
Davis Schneider›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 10h 28m before the gameUnder 0.5-115 at BetMGMproj 0.32 → 0+2.84%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game10h 28m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-124
Where our side closed-129
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.32 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.84%
Henry Davis›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 12h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at DraftKingsproj 0.59 → 1+3.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at DraftKings
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-144
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.59 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Alejandro Osuna›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11 min before the gameOver 0.5-122 at ProphetXproj 0.63 → 1+0.80%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.20
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-122 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-126
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.20
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.80%
Trevor Larnach›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 6h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.88 → 1+1.34%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game6h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-145
Where our side closed-132
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.34%
Jake Bauers›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 5h 29m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at Novigproj 0.88 → 1−1.52%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at Novig
Locked before the game5h 29m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.52%
Alex Bregman›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 6h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.19 → 1+0.84%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game6h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed-164
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.84%
Spencer Torkelson›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 11h 11m before the gameOver 0.5-153 at Novigproj 0.81 → 2+2.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.54
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-153 at Novig
Locked before the game11h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-167
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.81 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.54
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.07%
Jacob Wilson›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 8h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-162 at betPARXproj 1.09 → 1+1.92%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.17
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-162 at betPARX
Locked before the game8h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.09 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.17
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.92%
Basis
CJ Abrams›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 2h 41m before the gameOver 0.5-174 at Novigproj 1.31 → 1−0.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.75
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-174 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.31 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.75
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Basis
Brandon Nimmo›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 10h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-175 at BetMGMproj 1.08 → 2+1.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at BetMGM
Locked before the game10h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.43%
Marcus Semien›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 1h 5m before the gameUnder 1.5-178 at Novigproj 1.18 → 1+0.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.62
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-178 at Novig
Locked before the game1h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164 on 0.5
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.18 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.62
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.53%
Nathan Lukes›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · total bases · priced 3h 13m before the gameUnder 1.5-182 at Novigproj 1.22 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$5.49
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-182 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.22 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.49
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Freddie Freeman›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 9h 26m before the gameOver 0.5-199 at Novigproj 1.34 → 3−0.37%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.03
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-199 at Novig
Locked before the game9h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.34 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.7%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$5.03
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.37%
Michael Massey›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 4h 35m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at BetMGMproj 0.84 → 1+1.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-200 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 35m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.77%
Steven Kwan›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 4h 5m before the gameOver 0.5-205 at ProphetXproj 1.26 → 3+0.73%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.88
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-205 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-230
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.26 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.4%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$4.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.73%
Ali Sanchez›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5-115 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.41 → 3−0.16%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.7%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.16%
Amed Rosario›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 17h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5+150proj 0.45 → 1+3.65%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+150 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+132
Where our side closed+131
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed41.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.65%
Brandon Marsh›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 3h 26m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at BetMGMproj 0.98 → 2−0.10%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.1%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.10%
Brett Baty›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 2h 11m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.75 → 0+2.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.75 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.78%
Bryce Eldridge›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 2h 30m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at ESPN BETproj 1.43 → 20.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.43 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.6%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Caleb Durbin›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 11h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-139 at BetRiversproj 1.05 → 0+2.47%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-139 at BetRivers
Locked before the game11h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-154
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.47%
Christian Yelich›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 5h 39m before the gameOver 0.5-167 at Novigproj 0.94 → 0+0.96%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at Novig
Locked before the game5h 39m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.96%
Elly De La Cruz›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 8h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-182 at Bally Betproj 1.16 → 0+0.96%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-182 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game8h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-213
Where our side closed-195
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.96%
Esteury Ruiz›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 2h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.45 → 2+0.99%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game2h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.99%
Garrett Mitchell›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 5h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at Novigproj 0.86 → 0+1.48%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at Novig
Locked before the game5h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-138
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.48%
Henry Bolte›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at Caesarsproj 0.69 → 3+7.10%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at Caesars
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-152
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.8%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.10%
Hunter Goodman›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 10h 45m before the gameUnder 1.5-205 at betPARXproj 0.94 → 4+2.48%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-205 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250
Where our side closed-230
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.5%
Actual4 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.48%
Jacob Young›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 16 min before the gameOver 0.5-160 at Novigproj 0.85 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game16 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-194
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jake McCarthy›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 10h 45m before the gameUnder 1.5-159 at betPARXproj 1.04 → 20.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-159 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-178
Where our side closed-159
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.04 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jazz Chisholm Jr.›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 50 min before the gameOver 0.5-107 at Bally Betproj 0.84 → 0+3.27%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-107 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game50 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-133
Where our side closed-127
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.84 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.27%
Jimmy Crooks›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 13h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+102 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.36 → 1+3.12%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+102 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game13h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.36 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.12%
Keibert Ruiz›Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves · hits · priced 35 min before the gameOver 0.5-145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.7 → 0+0.82%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game35 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.82%
LaMonte Wade Jr.›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 10h 51m before the gameUnder 0.5+108 at betPARXproj 0.48 → 1+8.04%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+108 at betPARX
Locked before the game10h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-129
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+8.04%
Luis Urias›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 10h 28m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at BetMGMproj 0.34 → 1−7.03%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game10h 28m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-102
Where our side closed+150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.34 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−7.03%
Myles Straw›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 3h 17m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.35 → 1+0.63%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 17m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.63%
Nick Gonzales›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 2h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-210 at ProphetXproj 1.48 → 0−0.21%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-210 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240 on 1.5
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed70.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.21%
Nick Sogard›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 3h 25m before the gameOver 0.5+100 at Novigproj 0.86 → 0+0.25%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-101
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.25%
Nicky Lopez›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-117 at ProphetXproj 0.76 → 0+0.86%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-117 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-148
Where our side closed-129
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.86%
Noelvi Marte›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 0.65 → 0+5.28%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-188
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.28%
Rhys Hoskins›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 4h 26m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.44 → 1+0.49%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game4h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.49%
Trea Turner›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 10h 20m before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 1.17 → 2+3.77%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-180 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game10h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-217
Where our side closed-213
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.17 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.77%
Alan Roden›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 4h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5-101 at ProphetXproj 0.43−1.27%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-101 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.27%
David Hamilton›Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 13h 36m before the gameOver 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.66+5.44%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.66 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Hao-Yu Lee›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 3h 15m before the gameOver 0.5-174 at Novigproj 0.890.00%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-174 at Novig
Locked before the game3h 15m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-174
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.89 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nick Kurtz›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 3h before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at Novigproj 1.13+6.71%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at Novig
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-172
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Troy Johnston›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 14h 12m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.69not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game14h 12m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.4%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Yohel Pozo›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 17h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at BetOnlineproj 0.47+4.14%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+125 at BetOnline
Locked before the game17h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.3%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jul 31Fri30−14+$104.82running +$210.003 voidcurrent model
Tristan Peters›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 11h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 0−0.85%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.85%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.97%
…of which: waiting paid+2.07%
…of which: market drift−3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.07% + −3.03% = −0.97%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.85% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Gabriel Rincones Jr.›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 6h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+118 at BetOpenlyproj 0.48 → 0+3.40%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+118 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game6h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.40%
David Fry›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 4h 6m before the gameUnder 0.5+111 at DraftKingsproj 0.23 → 0+2.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.10
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+111 at DraftKings
Locked before the game4h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.23 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.53%
Colton Cowser›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · total bases · priced 13h 3m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.42 → 0+1.77%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 3m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.77%
Nick Kurtz›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5+110 at betPARXproj 1.17 → 0+2.38%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.17 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.7%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.38%
Weston Wilson›Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners · hits · priced 2h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at betPARXproj 0.46 → 0+0.29%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-106
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.29%
Taylor Trammell›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 2h 45m before the gameOver 0.5+109 at ProphetXproj 0.52 → 1+0.60%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.90
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+109 at ProphetX
Locked before the game2h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed+104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.52 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$10.90
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.60%
Grant McCray›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 11h 45m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.25 → 0+0.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 45m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.25 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.98%
Ali Sanchez›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 7h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at BetMGMproj 0.42 → 0+0.74%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at BetMGM
Locked before the game7h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-111
Where our side closed-103
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.74%
Basis
Evan Carter›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 16h 13m before the gameOver 0.5+100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.71 → 2−1.05%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game16h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.05%
Noelvi Marte›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 11h 40m before the gameOver 0.5+100 at ProphetXproj 0.51 → 3+5.56%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-122
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.51 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.7%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.56%
Austin Wynns›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 2h 13m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at BetOnlineproj 0.22 → 0+0.69%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 13m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-113
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.22 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.69%
Jose Ramirez›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · total bases · priced 6h 16m before the gameUnder 1.5-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.28 → 0+0.99%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game6h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jakob Marsee›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 2h 46m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at Novigproj 0.63 → 1+3.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-134 on 1
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.63 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Basis
Tyler Stephenson›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h 30m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at ProphetXproj 0.95 → 1+2.65%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.70
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-128
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.95 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.65%
Paul Goldschmidt›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · total bases · priced 8h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-125 at BetMGMproj 1.46 → 0−0.72%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.46 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.72%
Bo Bichette›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 15h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.27 → 0+1.67%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game15h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.27 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.67%
Brandon Lowe›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 7h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.08 → 30.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.08 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.1%
Actual3 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Chandler Simpson›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · total bases · priced 11h 1m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at betPARXproj 1.44 → 1+0.32%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.44 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.32%
Elly De La Cruz›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 8h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.2 → 1−0.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game8h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-172
Where our side closed-146
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.2 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.75%
Ezequiel Tovar›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 11h 36m before the gameUnder 1.5-152 at ProphetXproj 0.88 → 0+0.47%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.58
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-152 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-215
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.58
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.47%
Anthony Volpe›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · total bases · priced 8h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-175 at BetMGMproj 0.93 → 0+1.93%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-175 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-217
Where our side closed-186
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.93 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.8%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.93%
Henry Bolte›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 56 min before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at ProphetXproj 0.65 → 1−1.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-180 at ProphetX
Locked before the game56 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165 on 0.5
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.22%
Jorge Polanco›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 11h 51m before the gameUnder 1.5-180 at ESPN BETproj 0.55 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.56
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-180 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180 on 1
Where our side closed+126 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.55 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.56
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Pete Alonso›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 7h 41m before the gameOver 0.5-184 at ProphetXproj 0.97 → 2+0.57%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.43
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-184 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.97 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.57%
Ty France›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 1h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-192 at ProphetXproj 1.19 → 2+3.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.21
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-192 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-202
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.21
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.00%
Michael Massey›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 31m before the gameUnder 1.5-195 at betPARXproj 0.88 → 0−1.63%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.13
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-195 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-231
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.13
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.63%
Mickey Moniak›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-195 at betPARXproj 0.98 → 1−0.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.13
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-195 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-234
Where our side closed-195
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.13
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.24%
Hao-Yu Lee›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 15h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-200proj 0.9 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-200 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game15h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed+200 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Hunter Goodman›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at betPARXproj 0.94 → 0+0.47%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-200 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-260 on 0.5
Where our side closed-205
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.47%
Amed Rosario›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 8h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.4 → 1+1.91%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game8h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.91%
Brett Baty›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 3h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.8 → 0+2.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140 on 1
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.8 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.78%
Caleb Durbin›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 14h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at ESPN BETproj 0.96 → 0−0.73%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game14h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.73%
Cam Smith›Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.39 → 2+3.28%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+107
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.28%
Carter Jensen›Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5+110 at Bovadaproj 1.39 → 4+1.31%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at Bovada
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.39 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.31%
Drew Romo›Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at BetMGMproj 0.32 → 1+1.50%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.32 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.50%
Eliezer Alfonzo›Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 2h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.33 → 10.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.33 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Freddy Fermin›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 5h 5m before the gameUnder 0.5+132 at betPARXproj 0.48 → 1+4.07%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+132 at betPARX
Locked before the game5h 5m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.07%
Jase Bowen›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 15h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at ESPN BETproj 0.24 → 2+1.55%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game15h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-112
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.24 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.1%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.55%
Jesus Sanchez›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 2h 33m before the gameOver 0.5-145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.76 → 0+1.60%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-145 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 33m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.76 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.60%
JJ Bleday›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 8h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-160 at Novigproj 1.38 → 4not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game8h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.38 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Nathan Church›St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays · hits · priced 3h 22m before the gameUnder 0.5+104 at ProphetXproj 0.43 → 2+0.98%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+104 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h 22m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.98%
Rhys Hoskins›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians · hits · priced 11h 51m before the gameUnder 0.5+128 at betPARXproj 0.4 → 1+1.26%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+128 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+118
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.4 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.26%
Trea Turner›Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles · hits · priced 41 min before the gameUnder 1.5-205 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 1.04 → 3+0.77%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-205 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game41 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-222
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.04 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.4%
Actual3 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.77%
Carlos Cortes›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · hits · priced 11h 26m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.61not measurableno closing quotePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.1%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Matt Vierling›Detroit Tigers vs Athletics · total bases · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at BetOnlineproj 0.91not measurableno closing quotePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at BetOnline
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-169
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.91 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Max Schuemann›New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs · hits · priced 8h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at BetMGMproj 0.42+7.41%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-117
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+7.41%
Jul 30Thu21−8+$83.96running +$105.181 voidcurrent model
Austin Martin›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 11h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5+200 at ESPN BETproj 0.45 → 0+1.78%CLV vs close✓ Won+$20.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+200 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+173 on 1.5
Where our side closed+190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed35.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$20.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.78%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.15%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game2¢
With Kalshi’s fee3¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Hunter Feduccia›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 4h 46m before the gameOver 0.5+130 at Novigproj 0.61 → 1+3.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at Novig
Locked before the game4h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed46.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.03%
Jorge Polanco›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 10h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at BetOpenlyproj 0.42 → 0+5.54%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at BetOpenly
Locked before the game10h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.54%
Austin Wynns›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 2h 31m before the gameUnder 0.5-102 at BetOnlineproj 0.22 → 0+2.38%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.80
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-102 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-105
Where our side closed-108
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.22 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.38%
Jordan Walker›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 6 min before the gameUnder 1.5-104 at betPARXproj 1.41 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.62
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-104 at betPARX
Locked before the game6 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-104
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.41 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed54.5%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$9.62
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Munetaka Murakami›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 31 min before the gameOver 0.5-117 at ProphetXproj 0.86 → 1−0.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.55
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-117 at ProphetX
Locked before the game31 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-164 on 1.5
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.55
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.43%
Jase Bowen›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 10h 16m before the gameUnder 0.5-120 at ESPN BETproj 0.24 → 0+0.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-132
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.24 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.12%
Nathaniel Lowe›Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h 21m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at BetMGMproj 0.86 → 1+4.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.44%
Nick Kurtz›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 1.5-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.18 → 0−0.09%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-124
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.18 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.09%
Jonny Deluca›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 16 min before the gameOver 0.5-146 at ProphetXproj 0.83 → 2+1.59%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.85
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-146 at ProphetX
Locked before the game16 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.83 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.85
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.59%
Luke Keaschall›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 3h 41m before the gameUnder 1.5-160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.98 → 0+0.89%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.25
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game3h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.98 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.8%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.25
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Randy Arozarena›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 20h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-170 at ProphetXproj 0.93 → 1+1.20%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.88
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-170 at ProphetX
Locked before the game20h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.93 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.20%
JJ Wetherholt›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 6 min before the gameOver 0.5-175 at BetRiversproj 0.79 → 2+0.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at BetRivers
Locked before the game6 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-260
Where our side closed-177
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.79 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.26%
Masyn Winn›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 6 min before the gameUnder 1.5-175 at betPARXproj 0.94 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-175 at betPARX
Locked before the game6 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-207 on 0.5
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed66.1%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Xavier Edwards›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 1h 25m before the gameOver 0.5-176 at ProphetXproj 0.95 → 1+1.56%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.68
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-176 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-215
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.95 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.68
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.56%
Jonathan Aranda›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 7h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-184 at ProphetXproj 1.06 → 1+2.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.43
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-184 at ProphetX
Locked before the game7h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250
Where our side closed-223
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.06 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.43
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.53%
Connor Wong›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 11h 10m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at ESPN BETproj 0.83 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-190 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170 on 0.5
Where our side closed+140 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.83 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Blaze Jordan›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 2h 26m before the gameUnder 1.5-195 at betPARXproj 1.09 → 1−2.47%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.13
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-195 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210 on 0.5
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.09 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.2%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.13
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.47%
Fernando Tatis Jr.›San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 10h 31m before the gameOver 0.5-196 at ProphetXproj 1.17 → 1+2.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.10
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-196 at ProphetX
Locked before the game10h 31m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-260
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.17 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.53%
Wilyer Abreu›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 2h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-205 at betPARXproj 0.7 → 1+1.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$4.88
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-205 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.7 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$4.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.61%
Basis
Henry Bolte›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 10h 26m before the gameUnder 1.5-210 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.65 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$4.76
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-210 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game10h 26m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-161 on 0.5
Where our side closed+138 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.65 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed69.9%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$4.76
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Bryan Torres›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 5h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+141 at Novigproj 0.42 → 2−0.87%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+141 at Novig
Locked before the game5h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+125
Where our side closed+148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.87%
Donovan Walton›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 2h 40m before the gameUnder 0.5+135 at Novigproj 0.5 → 1+3.83%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+135 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 40m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+139
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.83%
Freddie Freeman›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at DraftKingsproj 1.26 → 0+2.65%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at DraftKings
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-238
Where our side closed-240
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.26 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.65%
Graham Pauley›Miami Marlins vs New York Mets · hits · priced 3h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5-130 at ESPN BETproj 0.33 → 2+1.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game3h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-137
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.33 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed59.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.00%
John Rave›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 1h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at betPARXproj 0.44 → 20.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at betPARX
Locked before the game1h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+170
Where our side closed+170
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.44 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed40.3%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Luisangel Acuna›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 1h 46m before the gameOver 0.5+110 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 0.61 → 0+6.93%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game1h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165 on 1.5
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.61 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed54.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.93%
Randal Grichuk›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 5h 16m before the gameUnder 0.5+160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.45 → 2+3.18%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+160 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game5h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+156 on 1.5
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.45 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.18%
Spencer Jones›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 2h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+106 at DraftKingsproj 0.5 → 1+0.98%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+106 at DraftKings
Locked before the game2h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-102
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.98%
Richie Palacios›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 9h 46m before the gameOver 0.5+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.62+8.67%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game9h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-117
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.62 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jul 29Wed25−20+$4.05running +$21.223 voidcurrent model
Lucas Spence›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 11h 49m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ProphetXproj 0.5 → 0+2.43%CLV vs close✓ Won+$14.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 49m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$14.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.43%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.79%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.79% = +3.79%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Alan Roden›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 11h 30m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.5 → 0−1.99%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+130 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.9%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.99%
Gavin Sheets›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 8h 46m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at BetMGMproj 0.47 → 0−2.67%CLV vs close✓ Won+$13.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at BetMGM
Locked before the game8h 46m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$13.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.67%
Rob Refsnyder›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+117 at betPARXproj 0.41 → 0+1.76%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.70
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+117 at betPARX
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.70
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.76%
Alika Williams›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 21h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+113 at ProphetXproj 0.48 → 0+1.06%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.30
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+113 at ProphetX
Locked before the game21h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+113
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.30
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.06%
Ke'Bryan Hayes›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 6h 50m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.31 → 0+1.51%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game6h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.31 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.51%
Pedro Pages›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 19h 41m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at ProphetXproj 0.29 → 0+3.37%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at ProphetX
Locked before the game19h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed-109
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.29 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.37%
Romy Gonzalez›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-105 at Fliffproj 1.16 → 0+1.58%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.52
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-105 at Fliff
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed53.8%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$9.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.58%
Weston Wilson›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 16h 8m before the gameUnder 0.5-110 at Fliffproj 0.41 → 0+3.17%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.09
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-110 at Fliff
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.41 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$9.09
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.17%
Royce Lewis›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 6 min before the gameUnder 1.5-125 at ProphetXproj 1.43 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-125 at ProphetX
Locked before the game6 min before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.43 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed57.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$8.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Chadwick Tromp›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 2h 1m before the gameUnder 0.5-130 at ESPN BETproj 0.32 → 0+1.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.69
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.32 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$7.69
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.22%
Brandon Marsh›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 3h 6m before the gameUnder 1.5-135 at BetMGMproj 1.07 → 1+3.49%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.41
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-135 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-156
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.41
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.49%
Cal Raleigh›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · total bases · priced 3h before the gameUnder 1.5-140 at ProphetXproj 1.02 → 0+0.75%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ProphetX
Locked before the game3h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.02 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.75%
Carson Benge›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · hits · priced 9h 16m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 0.99 → 2+2.45%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.14
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game9h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$7.14
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.45%
A.J. Ewing›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · hits · priced 9h 16m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at BetMGMproj 1.07 → 1−1.70%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.70%
Basis
Mauricio Dubon›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · hits · priced 10h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 0.83 → 1+2.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.83 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.26%
Daylen Lile›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 13h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-164 at DraftKingsproj 0.82 → 1+1.65%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.10
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-164 at DraftKings
Locked before the game13h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-221
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.10
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.65%
Cooper Pratt›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 10h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at BetMGMproj 1.11 → 1−1.48%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at BetMGM
Locked before the game10h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-176
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.48%
James Wood›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 13h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.05 → 2+0.19%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.88
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.05 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.6%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.88
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.19%
Brandon Lowe›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 1h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-174 at ProphetXproj 1.16 → 1+3.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.75
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-174 at ProphetX
Locked before the game1h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.7%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.75
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.16%
Pete Crow-Armstrong›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 17h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-174 at ProphetXproj 0.91 → 1+4.24%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.75
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-174 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-174
Where our side closed-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.91 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.0%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.75
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.24%
Josh Lowe›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · total bases · priced 5h 36m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at ESPN BETproj 0.92 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-190 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game5h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed+115 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.92 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.6%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Ty France›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 4h 55m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at ProphetXproj 1.28 → 10.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-240
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.28 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Steven Kwan›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-194 at ProphetXproj 1.13 → 2+3.53%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.15
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-194 at ProphetX
Locked before the game4h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-220
Where our side closed-228
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.13 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.0%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.15
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.53%
Willson Contreras›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 13h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at DraftKingsproj 0.92 → 0+1.88%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-200 at DraftKings
Locked before the game13h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-235
Where our side closed-235
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.92 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.88%
Cam Smith›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 13h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+161 at ESPN BETproj 0.35 → 1+1.23%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+161 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+160
Where our side closed+155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.23%
Ceddanne Rafaela›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 2h 55m before the gameUnder 1.5-190 at betPARXproj 1.07 → 2−1.40%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-190 at betPARX
Locked before the game2h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-257
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed68.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.40%
Christian Koss›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · total bases · priced 13h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.26 → 2−1.08%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.26 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.9%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Dominic Canzone›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 3h 30m before the gameOver 0.5-167 at Bally Betproj 0.86 → 0−0.28%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-167 at Bally Bet
Locked before the game3h 30m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-215
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.28%
Elly De La Cruz›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 4h before the gameOver 0.5-160 at Novigproj 1.16 → 0+0.29%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-160 at Novig
Locked before the game4h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-162
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.29%
Freddy Fermin›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 3h 10m before the gameUnder 0.5+105 at BetMGMproj 0.43 → 1−0.49%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+105 at BetMGM
Locked before the game3h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.49%
Ian Happ›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 15h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at ProphetXproj 0.85 → 0+0.77%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at ProphetX
Locked before the game15h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.77%
Jahmai Jones›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+170 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.35 → 1+4.53%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+170 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.35 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.53%
Jorbit Vivas›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 2h 11m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at ESPN BETproj 0.48 → 1+0.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+106
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.8%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.70%
Jose Tena›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 13h 1m before the gameOver 0.5-134 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.71 → 0+3.05%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-134 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game13h 1m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-152
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.71 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.05%
Liam Hicks›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 2h 21m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at Novigproj 0.92 → 0+3.79%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at Novig
Locked before the game2h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.92 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.79%
Marcus Semien›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · hits · priced 9h 16m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at BetMGMproj 0.75 → 0+1.19%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at BetMGM
Locked before the game9h 16m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.75 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.19%
Matt Vierling›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 15h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.69 → 5+3.14%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game15h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.69 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed65.9%
Actual5 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nick Fortes›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 11h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at ProphetXproj 1 → 0+3.43%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-120 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.43%
Nicky Lopez›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 12h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-115 at ESPN BETproj 0.82 → 0+2.24%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-115 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.82 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.6%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.24%
Nico Hoerner›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 19h 41m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at ProphetXproj 1.25 → 00.00%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at ProphetX
Locked before the game19h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-200
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.25 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Ronald Acuna Jr.›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · hits · priced 19h 6m before the gameOver 0.5-170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.93 → 0+3.70%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-170 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game19h 6m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.93 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.70%
Tim Tawa›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 4h 51m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at BetMGMproj 0.9 → 0−0.47%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at BetMGM
Locked before the game4h 51m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-154
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.47%
Tommy Edman›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 12h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at ProphetXproj 1.16 → 0+1.99%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.0%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.99%
Yohendrick Pinango›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · total bases · priced 2h 11m before the gameUnder 1.5-130 at ESPN BETproj 0.86 → 2+1.66%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game2h 11m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.86 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.2%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Gabriel Rincones Jr.›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 2h 21m before the gameUnder 0.5+118 at BetOnlineproj 0.48+3.66%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+118 at BetOnline
Locked before the game2h 21m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.48 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed47.4%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
LaMonte Wade Jr.›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 19h 36m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at ESPN BETproj 0.43+3.64%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game19h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+140
Where our side closed+115
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed43.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Nelson Velazquez›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 17h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at DraftKingsproj 0.31+2.52%CLV vs closeDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-102
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.31 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.7%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jul 28Tue38−27+$17.18running +$17.1810 voidcurrent model
Colby Thomas›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.5 → 0+0.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+110
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed45.7%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.22%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.16% + −3.17% = −1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Seiya Suzuki›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 11h 50m before the gameOver 1.5+120 at Hard Rock Betproj 2.2 → 4−0.22%CLV vs close✓ Won+$12.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+120 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game11h 50m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+122
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.2 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed45.6%
Actual4 total bases
Settled+$12.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.22%
Tyler Callihan›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+115 at ProphetXproj 0.46 → 0−1.30%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.50
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+115 at ProphetX
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.1%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.30%
Christian Koss›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 19h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Fliffproj 0.2 → 0+2.83%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at Fliff
Locked before the game19h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.2 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed49.3%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.83%
Colton Cowser›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at Fliffproj 0.39 → 0+4.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at Fliff
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.8%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.07%
TJ Friedl›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.46 → 0+0.69%CLV vs close✓ Won+$11.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-103
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.46 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.9%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$11.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.69%
Elly De La Cruz›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 17h 25m before the gameOver 1.5+105 at Bovadaproj 2.32 → 2−3.97%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.50
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+105 at Bovada
Locked before the game17h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+105
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.32 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed49.4%
Actual2 total bases
Settled+$10.50
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.97%
Jimmy Crooks›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 13h 43m before the gameUnder 0.5+100proj 0.42 → 0−0.39%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.39%
Petey Halpin›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 10h 10m before the gameOver 0.5+100 at ESPN BETproj 0.96 → 2+1.72%CLV vs close✓ Won+$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took+100 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game10h 10m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.96 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.5%
Actual2 total bases
Settled+$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.72%
Yordan Alvarez›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · total bases · priced 15h 36m before the gameOver 1.5-102 at DraftKingsproj 2.45 → 4+0.50%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.80
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took-102 at DraftKings
Locked before the game15h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108
Where our side closed+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.45 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.8%
Actual4 total bases
Settled+$9.80
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.50%
Junior Caminero›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · total bases · priced 14h 38m before the gameOver 1.5-105 at Caesarsproj 2.11 → 5+1.12%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.52
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took-105 at Caesars
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-114
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.11 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed51.9%
Actual5 total bases
Settled+$9.52
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.12%
Joe Mack›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-108proj 1.19 → 1+0.61%CLV vs close✓ Won+$9.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-108 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-108 on 1
Where our side closed-120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.5%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$9.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.61%
Romy Gonzalez›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-120 at Fliffproj 1.23 → 0−3.33%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at Fliff
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.23 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−3.33%
Ryan Kreidler›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameOver 0.5-120 at BetMGMproj 0.99 → 1+2.44%CLV vs close✓ Won+$8.33
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed55.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$8.33
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.44%
Griffin Conine›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-135proj 1.82 → 1+0.55%CLV vs close✓ Won+$7.41
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-135 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135 on 1
Where our side closed-135
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.82 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed58.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$7.41
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Braden Montgomery›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-143proj 1.55 → 2+0.56%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.99
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-143 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-143 on 1
Where our side closed-160
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.55 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actual2 total bases
Settled+$6.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Vaughn Grissom›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 19h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-144 at Hard Rock Betproj 1.11 → 2+6.26%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.94
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-144 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game19h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-188
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$6.94
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+6.26%
Cooper Pratt›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · total bases · priced 15h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-149 at ESPN BETproj 1.66 → 1+0.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-149 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game15h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.66 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.5%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.07%
Cole Carrigg›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at ESPN BETproj 1.65 → 2−1.03%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-143
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.65 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual2 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.03%
Ivan Herrera›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.2 → 0+2.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.67
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at ProphetX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-175
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.2 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.1%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.67
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.00%
Lane Thomas›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-152proj 0.79 → 1+1.23%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.58
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-152 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-193
Where our side closed-178
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.79 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.58
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.23%
Amed Rosario›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-156 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.78 → 1+1.08%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.41
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-156 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.78 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed63.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.41
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.08%
Cole Young›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · total bases · priced 14h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 1.62 → 1not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game14h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-175
Where our side closed+165 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.62 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.9%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Daulton Varsho›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 13h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.85 → 1+2.35%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-165 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-190
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.85 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed62.5%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.35%
Dylan Beavers›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-165 at Bovadaproj 1.11 → 0not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at Bovada
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-185
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.11 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.9%
Actual0 total bases
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Nick Loftin›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 1.49 → 1+0.76%CLV vs close✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.49 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.76%
Nolan Arenado›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 12h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at ESPN BETproj 1.61 → 4not measurablethe book moved the line✓ Won+$6.06
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed+150 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.61 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.0%
Actual4 total bases
Settled+$6.06
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Steven Kwan›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · total bases · priced 16h before the gameUnder 1.5-167 at Novigproj 1.38 → 1−1.01%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.99
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-167 at Novig
Locked before the game16h before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.38 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.8%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.99
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.01%
Jacob Gonzalez›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 12h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-175 at ESPN BETproj 1.04 → 1+2.27%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-175 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180 on 0.5
Where our side closed-200
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.04 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed64.3%
Actual1 total bases
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.27%
Jose Altuve›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · hits · priced 13h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-175 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.88 → 2+0.41%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.71
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-175 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game13h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-190
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.71
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.41%
Anthony Volpe›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-185 at ProphetXproj 0.75 → 1−2.98%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.41
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-185 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-210
Where our side closed-165
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.75 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.3%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.41
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.98%
Kevin McGonigle›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at DraftKingsproj 1.03 → 4not measurableno closing quote✓ Won+$5.26
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-248
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.03 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.2%
Actual4 hits
Settled+$5.26
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Tommy Edman›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 14h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-194proj 1.07 → 20.00%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.15
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-194 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game14h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-250
Where our side closed-194
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.07 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed67.9%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.15
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish0.00%
Jonathan Aranda›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at DraftKingsproj 1.1 → 2+1.60%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-264
Where our side closed-250
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed69.2%
Actual2 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.60%
Luis Arraez›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · hits · priced 13h 43m before the gameUnder 1.5-200 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 1.32 → 0+4.76%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 hits
Price we took-200 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-275 on 0.5
Where our side closed-250
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.32 hits
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed67.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.76%
Ryan Jeffers›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-200proj 1 → 1+0.90%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-267
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.90%
Wyatt Langford›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 14h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at DraftKingsproj 1.26 → 1+2.07%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-215
Where our side closed-210
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.26 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed66.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.07%
Xavier Edwards›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-200 at ProphetXproj 0.99 → 1+1.16%CLV vs close✓ Won+$5.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-200 at ProphetX
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-230
Where our side closed-220
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.99 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed68.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled+$5.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.16%
Alika Williams›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 19h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-108 at Fliffproj 0.9 → 0+5.26%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-108 at Fliff
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.9 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.3%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+5.26%
Brandon Nimmo›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 14h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-190 at DraftKingsproj 1.22 → 0+0.32%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-190 at DraftKings
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-196
Where our side closed-198
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.22 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed65.8%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.32%
CJ Abrams›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · total bases · priced 12h 41m before the gameOver 1.5+122 at ProphetXproj 2.97 → 1+3.15%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+122 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12h 41m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+120
Where our side closed+106
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.97 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed47.6%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.15%
Colt Keith›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-150 at Bovadaproj 1.19 → 4+2.86%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Bovada
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-170
Where our side closed-180
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.19 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.86%
Dillon Dingler›Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers · total bases · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 1.5+110 at Caesarsproj 1.9 → 0+1.76%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at Caesars
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-104
Where our side closed+105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.9 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed48.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+1.76%
Drew Romo›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5-130 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.32 → 1−0.19%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took-130 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.32 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.19%
Ezequiel Tovar›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 19h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at DraftKingsproj 0.47 → 1+2.90%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at DraftKings
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-110
Where our side closed-105
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+2.90%
Gavin Sheets›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+130 at DraftKingsproj 0.42 → 1−0.18%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+130 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+122
Where our side closed+130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.42 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed44.1%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.18%
Henry Bolte›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+155 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.47 → 2−1.26%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+155 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+145
Where our side closed+166
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.47 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed39.7%
Actual2 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.26%
Hunter Goodman›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 19h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 2.03 → 0−1.24%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-150 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.03 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Isaac Paredes›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · total bases · priced 17h 36m before the gameOver 0.5-165 at ProphetXproj 1.7 → 0not measurablethe book moved the line✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-165 at ProphetX
Locked before the game17h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+156 on 1.5
Where our side closed+150 on 1.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.7 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed64.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Jac Caglianone›Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameOver 1.5+120 at BetMGMproj 1.6 → 0−1.01%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+120 at BetMGM
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+115
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.6 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed45.5%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.01%
Jahmai Jones›Boston Red Sox vs Athletics · total bases · priced 21h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-121 at Caesarsproj 0.54 → 2+3.78%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-121 at Caesars
Locked before the game21h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-121
Where our side closed-148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.54 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed60.1%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+3.78%
Jake Mangum›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 14h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-135 at ESPN BETproj 1.39 → 3−1.92%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-135 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.39 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.5%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.92%
Jakob Marsee›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 14h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-112 at Fliffproj 0.88 → 0+4.26%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-112 at Fliff
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-135
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.88 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed52.9%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.26%
James Wood›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · total bases · priced 17h 43m before the gameOver 1.5+110 at DraftKingsproj 2.42 → 0−2.04%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+110 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-109
Where our side closed+120
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.42 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed50.2%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.04%
Jeremy Pena›Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels · total bases · priced 19h 36m before the gameOver 1.5+120 at DraftKingsproj 2.37 → 1−0.55%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+120 at DraftKings
Locked before the game19h 36m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+116
Where our side closed+125
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection2.37 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed45.7%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.55%
Ketel Marte›Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates · total bases · priced 12h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-125 at Hard Rock Betproj 1.5 → 2+0.75%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game12h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-134
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.5 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed56.1%
Actual2 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.75%
Kyle Manzardo›Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds · hits · priced 17h 25m before the gameUnder 0.5+110 at ESPN BETproj 0.5 → 1not measurableno closing quote✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+110 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 25m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+100
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.5 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed48.9%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Exchange cross-check
Kyle Stowers›Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins · total bases · priced 14h 38m before the gameUnder 1.5-145 at Hard Rock Betproj 1.46 → 4−1.54%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-145 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game14h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-160
Where our side closed-144
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.46 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed59.4%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−1.54%
Nasim Nunez›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · hits · priced 13h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-125 at Hard Rock Betproj 0.94 → 0+4.38%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-125 at Hard Rock Bet
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-155
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.94 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.5%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+4.38%
Nathan Church›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · hits · priced 11h 20m before the gameUnder 0.5+140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)proj 0.39 → 1+0.34%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+140 at Hard Rock Bet (OH)
Locked before the game11h 20m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+135
Where our side closed+140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.39 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed42.6%
Actual1 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish+0.34%
Pedro Ramirez›Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals · total bases · priced 13h 43m before the gameUnder 1.5-165proj 1.33 → 4not measurablethe book moved the line✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-165 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-225
Where our side closed+150 on 0.5
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.33 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed62.4%
Actual4 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Randy Arozarena›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · total bases · priced 16h 8m before the gameOver 1.5+120 at Fliffproj 1.71 → 0−2.28%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+120 at Fliff
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-115
Where our side closed+138
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.71 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed46.4%
Actual0 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−2.28%
Victor Mesa Jr.›Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays · hits · priced 16h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-150 at DraftKingsproj 0.73 → 0−0.53%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-150 at DraftKings
Locked before the game16h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-192
Where our side closed-145
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.73 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed61.4%
Actual0 hits
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.53%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.›Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals · total bases · priced 12h 55m before the gameOver 1.5+136 at ProphetXproj 1.53 → 1+2.23%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 1.5 total bases
Price we took+136 at ProphetX
Locked before the game12h 55m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw+122
Where our side closed+123
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.53 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed43.2%
Actual1 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
William Contreras›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · total bases · priced 11h 56m before the gameUnder 1.5-155 at betPARXproj 1.16 → 3−0.31%CLV vs close✗ Lost−$10.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-155 at betPARX
Locked before the game11h 56m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-165
Where our side closed-150
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed61.1%
Actual3 total bases
Settled−$10.00
Graded from the box score at the price we took — never at a better price found afterwards. This row is permanent: positions settle, they never disappear.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish−0.31%
A.J. Ewing›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-160 at Fanatics Sportsbookproj 1.6−0.81%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-160 at Fanatics Sportsbook
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-180
Where our side closed-155
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.6 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed63.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Ali Sanchez›New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · hits · priced 17h 38m before the gameUnder 0.5+100 at DraftKingsproj 0.43not measurableno closing quoteDNP$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 0.5 hits
Price we took+100 at DraftKings
Locked before the game17h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-118
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.43 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed51.5%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
DNP — did not play. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
Not measurable on this row — no usable closing quote was captured before the game. It is shown as unmeasurable rather than as zero, because those are different statements.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Austin Riley›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-118 at ReBetproj 1.47+1.35%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-118 at ReBet
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-124
Where our side closed-141
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.47 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.0%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Carson Benge›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-140 at ESPN BETproj 1.38−7.28%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-140 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.38 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed60.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Colt Emerson›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · hits · priced 14h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-105proj 0.58+2.05%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 hits
Price we took-105 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game14h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-114
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection0.58 hits
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Jake Bauers›Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants · total bases · priced 13h 43m before the gameOver 0.5-123 at ESPN BETproj 1.37−0.61%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-123 at ESPN BET
Locked before the game13h 43m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-150
Where our side closed-130
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.37 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.8%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Kyle Karros›Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres · total bases · priced 19h 38m before the gameOver 0.5-130 at BetOnlineproj 1.43+4.02%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-130 at BetOnline
Locked before the game19h 38m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-130
Where our side closed-164
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.43 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed57.2%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Luis Robert Jr.›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-123proj 1.16+1.95%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-123 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-123 on 1
Where our side closed-148
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.16 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed56.6%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Max Muncy›Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers · total bases · priced 16h 8m before the gameUnder 1.5-140proj 1.15+1.09%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideUnder 1.5 total bases
Price we took-140 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game16h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-140
Where our side closed-140
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.15 total bases
The market’s line1.5
Probability we displayed58.5%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
Tyrone Taylor›Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets · total bases · priced 17h 8m before the gameOver 0.5-108proj 1.85−0.30%CLV vs closePPD$0.00
The position, as logged
Our sideOver 0.5 total bases
Price we took-108 (no book on this row)
Locked before the game17h 8m before the scheduled start
First price we ever saw-125
Where our side closed-110
What we projected, and what happened
Our projection1.85 total bases
The market’s line0.5
Probability we displayed53.4%
Actualnever played
Settled$0.00
PPD — the game was postponed — it was never played. No stake was ever at risk, so it settles at zero and sits in neither the wins nor the losses. It stays on the record because we did take this line, and that is the claim.
Closing line value
CLV — the number we publish
This identity holds:
750 plays across the groups = 750 in the headline
✓This identity holds:437−313 across the groups = 437−313 in the headline
✓This identity holds:+83.77u across the groups = +83.77u in the headline
0 of 2 groups are under 20 decided plays, so their hit rate and return are withheld. The raw won–lost and the units are still shown, because those are counts, not rates.
719 counted above
–16 the book moved the line, so our price and the close are quotes on two different bets
–15 no usable closing quote was captured before the game
✓This identity holds:719 + 16 + 15 = 750 graded plays in this scope
All three legs are raw price-to-price, which is the only way they telescope. The headline above is the de-vigged number on the 464 of 719 rows where we froze both sides at lock — a different, better-behaved measurement, and never averaged together with these.
Never read closing line value as a return. Beating the close by less than the margin we paid to get there still loses money: break-even is roughly half the hold, about +2.25 points. The figure above is below that line.
This is the CLV of the plays in this record, and it is not the only CLV number we publish: the wider pool of every price we ever locked — including model-qualified picks we price purely to measure ourselves and never bet — is itemised on the CLV audit. Both are real and they answer different questions, which is why they are never averaged into one.
What would prove this page wrong. A play that appears here today and is gone tomorrow; a loss that changes to a void; a start date that moves after a bad week; a subset whose n cannot be reconciled with the headline’s n. The CSV below is downloadable and diffable precisely so those are checkable rather than promised.
✗FAILED:all 750 timestamped plays were priced before the game started
✓Passed:all 61 voids settle at exactly 0 — none of them moves the record
✓Passed:every logged row still carries its date and its outcome
✓Passed:the rate gate is n=20, the same constant every StatIQ surface uses
What this page deliberately does not do. It does not score the probability we published against what happened, and it does not repeat the backtests — that is the model report card, and printing the same calibration table in two places is how two surfaces start to disagree. Likewise the itemised list of every price we ever locked, including the measurement-only ones that are not in this record, is the CLV audit. This page answers exactly one question: what happened to the plays we published?
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.79%
…of which: waiting paid+5.01%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.56%
…of which: waiting paid+0.85%
…of which: market drift+0.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.85% + +0.71% = +1.56%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.64% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.89%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −1.89% = −1.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.54% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.21%
…of which: waiting paid−1.01%
…of which: market drift+0.80%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.01% + +0.80% = −0.21%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.47%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift+3.36%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.11% + +3.36% = +4.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.03% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game87¢
With Kalshi’s fee88¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−3.59%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift−4.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.11% + −4.70% = −3.59%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −3.63% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−3.37%
…of which: waiting paid+1.16%
…of which: market drift−4.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.16% + −4.53% = −3.37%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.99% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+3.14%
…of which: market drift−4.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.14% + −4.30% = −1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.67% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.20%
…of which: waiting paid+3.14%
…of which: market drift−0.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.14% + −0.94% = +2.20%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+4.57%
…of which: market drift−2.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.81% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+5.02%
…of which: market drift−3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.02% + −3.21% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.93% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.93%
…of which: waiting paid+5.18%
…of which: market drift−3.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.71%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−1.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −1.71% = −1.71%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.96% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.77%
…of which: waiting paid+4.29%
…of which: market drift−0.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.77%
…of which: waiting paid+3.77%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game88¢
With Kalshi’s fee89¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.25%
…of which: waiting paid+3.50%
…of which: market drift+0.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.31%
…of which: waiting paid−0.31%
…of which: market drift+0.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.22%
…of which: waiting paid+3.98%
…of which: market drift−5.20%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.05%
…of which: waiting paid+6.50%
…of which: market drift−3.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.50% + −3.46% = +3.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.07%
…of which: waiting paid+3.70%
…of which: market drift−2.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.70% + −2.64% = +1.07%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.39% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.64%
…of which: market drift−2.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.13%
…of which: waiting paid−0.90%
…of which: market drift+3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.90% + +3.03% = +2.13%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game93¢
With Kalshi’s fee94¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.07%
…of which: waiting paid+3.63%
…of which: market drift−1.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.63% + −1.57% = +2.07%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.46%
…of which: waiting paid+3.21%
…of which: market drift+1.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.21% + +1.25% = +4.46%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.93% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.22%
…of which: waiting paid+0.98%
…of which: market drift+0.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.98% + +0.24% = +1.22%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.91% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.56% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.89%
…of which: waiting paid+3.38%
…of which: market drift−2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.70%
…of which: waiting paid+3.49%
…of which: market drift−7.19%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.17%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.17% + −3.17% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.48%
…of which: waiting paid+5.58%
…of which: market drift−6.06%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+0.73%
…of which: market drift−0.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.75%
…of which: waiting paid−1.42%
…of which: market drift+2.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.50%
…of which: waiting paid+3.25%
…of which: market drift−1.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.25% + −1.75% = +1.50%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.27% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game80¢
With Kalshi’s fee82¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+3.38%
…of which: market drift−1.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.38% + −1.57% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.85% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.99%
…of which: waiting paid+0.88%
…of which: market drift+1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.88% + +1.11% = +1.99%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.44%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.03% = +3.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.37%
…of which: waiting paid+6.90%
…of which: market drift−6.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.90% + −6.52% = +0.37%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.21% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.88%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.47%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.47% = −0.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.41%
…of which: waiting paid+4.72%
…of which: market drift−2.31%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.93%
…of which: market drift−6.93%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.93% + −6.93% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid−0.71%
…of which: market drift+1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.71% + +1.81% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.27% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.03%
…of which: waiting paid+1.74%
…of which: market drift+2.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.67%
…of which: waiting paid+4.76%
…of which: market drift−5.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.76% + −5.43% = −0.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.53%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.91%
…of which: waiting paid+0.84%
…of which: market drift+1.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.84% + +1.07% = +1.91%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.97%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.30%
…of which: waiting paid+5.87%
…of which: market drift−1.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.87% + −1.57% = +4.30%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.97% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.00%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.58%
…of which: waiting paid+1.58%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.58% + 0.00% = +1.58%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.75%
…of which: waiting paid+7.39%
…of which: market drift−4.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.42%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.42%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.42% = +1.42%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game6¢
With Kalshi’s fee7¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.75%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.75% = +0.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.41% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.34%
…of which: waiting paid+5.36%
…of which: market drift−5.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.36% + −5.70% = −0.34%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.05% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.74%
…of which: waiting paid+0.93%
…of which: market drift+2.82%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.93% + +2.82% = +3.74%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.27% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.29%
…of which: waiting paid+4.62%
…of which: market drift−2.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.93%
…of which: waiting paid+13.42%
…of which: market drift−14.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+14.86%
…of which: waiting paid+2.60%
…of which: market drift+12.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.60% + +12.25% = +14.86%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +12.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.36%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.37%
…of which: waiting paid+3.60%
…of which: market drift−0.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.60% + −0.23% = +3.37%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.59% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.71%
…of which: waiting paid+5.18%
…of which: market drift−0.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.38%
…of which: waiting paid+6.81%
…of which: market drift−3.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.50%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.50%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.47%
…of which: waiting paid+3.96%
…of which: market drift−2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.96% + −2.49% = +1.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+8.78%
…of which: market drift−8.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.99%
…of which: waiting paid+7.93%
…of which: market drift−5.93%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.54%
…of which: waiting paid+0.38%
…of which: market drift+3.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.38% + +3.16% = +3.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.21% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.65%
…of which: market drift−3.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.61%
…of which: waiting paid+1.09%
…of which: market drift+0.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.91%
…of which: waiting paid+2.48%
…of which: market drift+0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.48% + +0.43% = +2.91%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.25% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.83%
…of which: waiting paid+5.52%
…of which: market drift−3.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.55%
…of which: waiting paid+6.74%
…of which: market drift−3.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+2.26%
…of which: market drift−0.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.26% + −0.73% = +1.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.61% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+3.63%
…of which: market drift−4.41%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.63% + −4.41% = −0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.80% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid−0.80%
…of which: market drift+0.80%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.28%
…of which: waiting paid+4.86%
…of which: market drift−0.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.86% + −0.58% = +4.28%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.07%
…of which: waiting paid−2.01%
…of which: market drift+7.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.37%
…of which: waiting paid−3.70%
…of which: market drift+6.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−3.70% + +6.08% = +2.37%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.25% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.04%
…of which: waiting paid+4.85%
…of which: market drift−3.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.85% + −3.81% = +1.04%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+8.07%
…of which: market drift−8.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.07% + −8.07% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.98%
…of which: waiting paid+8.81%
…of which: market drift−4.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.72%
…of which: waiting paid−0.70%
…of which: market drift+1.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.70% + +1.43% = +0.72%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.96%
…of which: waiting paid+5.84%
…of which: market drift−2.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.84% + −2.88% = +2.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+1.83%
…of which: market drift−0.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.85%
…of which: waiting paid+4.30%
…of which: market drift−1.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.78%
…of which: waiting paid+3.79%
…of which: market drift−1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.79% + −1.01% = +2.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.80% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+7.21%
…of which: market drift−8.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.21% + −8.75% = −1.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.47%
…of which: waiting paid+0.18%
…of which: market drift−0.66%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.18% + −0.66% = −0.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.11%
…of which: waiting paid+4.47%
…of which: market drift+0.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.93%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift+2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.67% + +2.26% = +3.93%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.51% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+9.88%
…of which: waiting paid+3.93%
…of which: market drift+5.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.93% + +5.95% = +9.88%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +10.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+0.66%
…of which: market drift+0.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.66% + +0.45% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.68% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid−0.73%
…of which: market drift+0.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.98%
…of which: market drift−1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.98% + −1.98% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift−2.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.96% + −2.96% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.95%
…of which: waiting paid+4.16%
…of which: market drift−5.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid−2.49%
…of which: market drift+2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−2.49% + +2.49% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.15%
…of which: waiting paid+2.55%
…of which: market drift−3.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game36¢
With Kalshi’s fee38¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+12.80%
…of which: waiting paid+6.74%
…of which: market drift+6.06%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+9.44%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+13.75%
…of which: waiting paid+3.27%
…of which: market drift+10.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.27% + +10.47% = +13.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +9.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.32%
…of which: waiting paid+3.20%
…of which: market drift−1.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.20% + −1.87% = +1.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.15%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.15%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.15% = −0.15%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.60% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.41%
…of which: waiting paid+4.52%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.52% + −1.11% = +3.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.41% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.66%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−5.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.03% + −5.70% = −2.66%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −3.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.94%
…of which: waiting paid+6.41%
…of which: market drift−1.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.41% + −1.47% = +4.94%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.88%
…of which: waiting paid+2.88%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.88% + 0.00% = +2.88%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.99%
…of which: waiting paid+3.74%
…of which: market drift−2.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.74% + −2.75% = +0.99%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.62% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.83%
…of which: waiting paid+3.92%
…of which: market drift−1.09%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.92% + −1.09% = +2.83%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.92%
…of which: market drift−3.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.92% + −3.92% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.33% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+1.98%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.98% + 0.00% = +1.98%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.46% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.18%
…of which: waiting paid+0.71%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.71% + −0.89% = −0.18%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.04% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.49%
…of which: waiting paid+2.65%
…of which: market drift−0.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.65% + −0.16% = +2.49%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.52%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift+3.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.54% + +3.98% = +5.52%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.61%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+2.26%
…of which: market drift−0.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.26% + −0.73% = +1.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.61% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+3.75%
…of which: market drift−4.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.75% + −4.54% = −0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.42% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+8.88%
…of which: market drift−8.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.65%
…of which: waiting paid+4.17%
…of which: market drift−4.82%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.17% + −4.82% = −0.65%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.35% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game9¢
With Kalshi’s fee10¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.04%
…of which: waiting paid+4.30%
…of which: market drift−3.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.30% + −3.26% = +1.04%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game73¢
With Kalshi’s fee75¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.42%
…of which: waiting paid+3.78%
…of which: market drift−2.35%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.78% + −2.35% = +1.42%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.63% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game37¢
With Kalshi’s fee39¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.50%
…of which: waiting paid+7.21%
…of which: market drift−6.72%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.78%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.78% = +0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.36% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.46%
…of which: market drift−6.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.46% + −6.46% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.43%
…of which: waiting paid+2.99%
…of which: market drift−3.42%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.99% + −3.42% = −0.43%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.64%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+4.26%
…of which: market drift−3.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.26% + −3.16% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.33%
…of which: waiting paid+8.65%
…of which: market drift−6.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.96%
…of which: waiting paid+1.96%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.96% + 0.00% = +1.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.04% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+4.82%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.41%
…of which: waiting paid+4.47%
…of which: market drift+0.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.47% + +0.94% = +5.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.82% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.34%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.49%
…of which: waiting paid+2.90%
…of which: market drift−1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.90% + −1.40% = +1.49%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.80%
…of which: waiting paid+13.32%
…of which: market drift−8.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.82%
…of which: waiting paid+6.51%
…of which: market drift−5.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.89%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.69%
…of which: market drift−1.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.03%
…of which: waiting paid+5.30%
…of which: market drift+0.72%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.48%
…of which: waiting paid−0.93%
…of which: market drift−2.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.94%
…of which: waiting paid+6.78%
…of which: market drift+1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.78% + +1.16% = +7.94%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +6.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+3.17%
…of which: market drift−2.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.17% + −2.16% = +1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.48% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.47%
…of which: waiting paid+6.93%
…of which: market drift−0.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.93% + −0.46% = +6.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift−4.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + −4.55% = −2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+3.60%
…of which: market drift−6.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.46%
…of which: market drift−1.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.72%
…of which: waiting paid−1.16%
…of which: market drift+1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.16% + +1.89% = +0.72%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.37% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.22%
…of which: waiting paid+0.97%
…of which: market drift+0.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.97% + +0.25% = +1.22%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.62% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.03%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.03% = +2.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.11% + 0.00% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.42%
…of which: waiting paid+8.40%
…of which: market drift−2.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.91%
…of which: market drift−5.91%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.87%
…of which: waiting paid+7.30%
…of which: market drift−5.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+8.93%
…of which: waiting paid+9.56%
…of which: market drift−0.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.80%
…of which: waiting paid+4.11%
…of which: market drift+0.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.45%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift+0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.67% + +0.78% = +2.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.69%
…of which: waiting paid+7.82%
…of which: market drift−5.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+1.83%
…of which: market drift−1.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.29%
…of which: waiting paid+4.29%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.29% + 0.00% = +4.29%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.13% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.29%
…of which: waiting paid+8.75%
…of which: market drift−4.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.75% + −4.46% = +4.29%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.20%
…of which: waiting paid+6.04%
…of which: market drift−4.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.35%
…of which: waiting paid+5.20%
…of which: market drift−3.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.26%
…of which: waiting paid+9.30%
…of which: market drift−9.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.75%
…of which: waiting paid+6.19%
…of which: market drift−1.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.19% + −1.44% = +4.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.11% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.14%
…of which: market drift−4.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.14% + −4.14% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.46%
…of which: waiting paid+4.58%
…of which: market drift−5.04%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+7.45%
…of which: market drift−5.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.45% + −5.07% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.49%
…of which: waiting paid+3.33%
…of which: market drift−1.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.33% + −1.83% = +1.49%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.60%
…of which: waiting paid+1.95%
…of which: market drift−2.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.95% + −2.55% = −0.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game34¢
With Kalshi’s fee36¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.74%
…of which: waiting paid+0.89%
…of which: market drift+0.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.89% + +0.85% = +1.74%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.76% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+3.33%
…of which: market drift−5.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.33% + −5.30% = −1.98%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.23%
…of which: waiting paid+2.85%
…of which: market drift−2.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.85% + −2.62% = +0.23%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.01% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.16%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.16% + −1.16% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.47% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.70%
…of which: waiting paid+4.40%
…of which: market drift−1.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.40% + −1.69% = +2.70%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.05% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.24%
…of which: waiting paid+2.45%
…of which: market drift+3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.45% + +3.79% = +6.24%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +5.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.86%
…of which: waiting paid+2.43%
…of which: market drift−3.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.43% + −3.29% = −0.86%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.63%
…of which: waiting paid+4.84%
…of which: market drift−0.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.45%
…of which: waiting paid+7.99%
…of which: market drift−6.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.99% + −6.54% = +1.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.03% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.87%
…of which: waiting paid+6.98%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+7.41%
…of which: market drift−6.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.78%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.55%
…of which: waiting paid+1.22%
…of which: market drift+3.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.22% + +3.33% = +4.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.78% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.85%
…of which: waiting paid+4.64%
…of which: market drift−3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.53%
…of which: waiting paid+3.46%
…of which: market drift+2.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.89%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.89% = +0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.78%
…of which: waiting paid+3.79%
…of which: market drift−1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.79% + −1.01% = +2.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.95% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.36%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.36%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.36% = +1.36%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.40%
…of which: waiting paid−2.78%
…of which: market drift+3.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−2.78% + +3.18% = +0.40%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.82% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.63%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.63% = +0.63%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.11% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.45%
…of which: waiting paid+4.98%
…of which: market drift−4.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.23%
…of which: waiting paid−3.17%
…of which: market drift+2.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−3.17% + +2.95% = −0.23%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+4.30%
…of which: market drift−3.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.30% + −3.14% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.11% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.89%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.89% = −0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.24%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.24% = +0.24%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.92%
…of which: market drift−3.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.92% + −3.92% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.29% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.70%
…of which: waiting paid+1.16%
…of which: market drift+1.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.16% + +1.54% = +2.70%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.29%
…of which: market drift−3.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.90%
…of which: waiting paid+4.58%
…of which: market drift−2.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.58% + −2.67% = +1.90%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.79%
…of which: waiting paid+6.99%
…of which: market drift−3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.88%
…of which: market drift−5.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.43%
…of which: waiting paid+2.71%
…of which: market drift−2.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.71% + −2.27% = +0.43%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.81% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.71%
…of which: waiting paid+2.45%
…of which: market drift+0.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.32%
…of which: waiting paid+1.24%
…of which: market drift+3.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.24% + +3.08% = +4.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.89% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.62%
…of which: waiting paid+4.30%
…of which: market drift−1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.30% + −1.67% = +2.62%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.94% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid−6.76%
…of which: market drift+9.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−6.76% + +9.79% = +3.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.37% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.97%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift−1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + −1.98% = −0.97%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.01%
…of which: waiting paid−1.12%
…of which: market drift+3.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.12% + +3.14% = +2.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.85%
…of which: waiting paid+4.28%
…of which: market drift−0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.26%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.26% = +2.26%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.56%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.56% = −0.56%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.48% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−3.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.48% + −3.48% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.52% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.76%
…of which: waiting paid+6.28%
…of which: market drift−2.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−4.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.27%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+7.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +7.27% = +7.27%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +6.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.69%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.69% = +1.69%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+10.14%
…of which: market drift−10.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.52%
…of which: waiting paid+1.38%
…of which: market drift+0.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.84%
…of which: waiting paid+1.06%
…of which: market drift+3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.39%
…of which: waiting paid+0.17%
…of which: market drift+2.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.17% + +2.21% = +2.39%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.01% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.65%
…of which: market drift−2.65%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.90%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.30%
…of which: waiting paid+4.76%
…of which: market drift+1.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.76% + +1.54% = +6.30%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.01%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.14%
…of which: waiting paid+1.98%
…of which: market drift+2.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.98% + +2.16% = +4.14%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.01% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.60%
…of which: waiting paid+0.78%
…of which: market drift+0.82%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.78% + +0.82% = +1.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.78% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.60%
…of which: waiting paid+3.89%
…of which: market drift−2.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.89% + −2.29% = +1.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.49%
…of which: market drift−2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.49% + −2.49% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.15%
…of which: waiting paid+2.33%
…of which: market drift−3.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.14%
…of which: waiting paid+4.14%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.14% + 0.00% = +4.14%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.92% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.55%
…of which: waiting paid−6.99%
…of which: market drift+11.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−6.99% + +11.54% = +4.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.86% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.10%
…of which: waiting paid+6.52%
…of which: market drift−0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.40%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.40% = +1.40%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.82% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.83%
…of which: market drift−2.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.83% + −2.83% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.60% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+2.57%
…of which: market drift−4.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.57% + −4.95% = −2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.65% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.57%
…of which: waiting paid+2.57%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.57% + 0.00% = +2.57%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.18% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game74¢
With Kalshi’s fee76¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+0.43%
…of which: market drift−0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.43% + −0.43% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.04%
…of which: waiting paid+5.27%
…of which: market drift−4.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.27% + −4.23% = +1.04%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.47% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.74%
…of which: waiting paid+3.10%
…of which: market drift+3.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.10% + +3.64% = +6.74%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +6.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.90%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift+2.36%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.54% + +2.36% = +3.90%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.36% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.48%
…of which: waiting paid+1.74%
…of which: market drift−0.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.08%
…of which: waiting paid+3.98%
…of which: market drift−2.90%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.50%
…of which: waiting paid−0.75%
…of which: market drift+3.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.48%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game80¢
With Kalshi’s fee82¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.67% + 0.00% = +1.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.12%
…of which: waiting paid+6.35%
…of which: market drift−3.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.35% + −3.24% = +3.12%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+8.46%
…of which: market drift−6.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.46% + −6.30% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+3.79%
…of which: market drift−5.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.36%
…of which: waiting paid+11.48%
…of which: market drift−10.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.71%
…of which: waiting paid+5.95%
…of which: market drift−5.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.95% + −5.25% = +0.71%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.41% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid−1.84%
…of which: market drift+1.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.84% + +1.84% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.59%
…of which: waiting paid+0.58%
…of which: market drift+1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.58% + +1.01% = +1.59%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.80% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.59%
…of which: market drift−6.59%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.51%
…of which: waiting paid+6.64%
…of which: market drift−1.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.41%
…of which: waiting paid+4.95%
…of which: market drift−4.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.95% + −4.55% = +0.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.89%
…of which: waiting paid+2.41%
…of which: market drift+0.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game75¢
With Kalshi’s fee77¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.34%
…of which: waiting paid+2.66%
…of which: market drift−2.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.32%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift−1.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.67% + −1.34% = +0.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.91%
…of which: waiting paid−3.09%
…of which: market drift+6.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−3.09% + +6.00% = +2.91%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.35% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+8.46%
…of which: market drift−6.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.46% + −6.30% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.15% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.10%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−0.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.68%
…of which: market drift−6.68%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.68% + −6.68% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.16% + 0.00% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.65% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.27%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.27% = +2.27%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.96%
…of which: waiting paid+4.66%
…of which: market drift−2.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.66% + −2.70% = +1.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.86% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.63%
…of which: waiting paid+0.21%
…of which: market drift+4.42%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.09%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.14%
…of which: waiting paid+4.71%
…of which: market drift−1.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.71% + −1.57% = +3.14%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.61%
…of which: waiting paid+10.16%
…of which: market drift−4.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game36¢
With Kalshi’s fee38¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.77%
…of which: waiting paid+5.30%
…of which: market drift−4.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.30% + −4.53% = +0.77%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.73% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.08%
…of which: waiting paid+2.78%
…of which: market drift+4.30%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.78% + +4.30% = +7.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.47% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.49%
…of which: waiting paid+5.87%
…of which: market drift−2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.87% + −2.38% = +3.49%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+6.98%
…of which: market drift−5.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.98% + −5.87% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game2¢
With Kalshi’s fee3¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.11% + 0.00% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.76%
…of which: market drift−4.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.76% + −4.76% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.25% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.21%
…of which: waiting paid+4.76%
…of which: market drift+0.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.16%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −1.16% = −1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.51% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.44%
…of which: waiting paid+5.97%
…of which: market drift−3.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.98%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.06%
…of which: waiting paid+1.79%
…of which: market drift−2.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.79% + −2.84% = −1.06%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.21% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.14%
…of which: waiting paid+7.77%
…of which: market drift−5.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.26%
…of which: waiting paid+6.67%
…of which: market drift−4.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift−1.54%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.54% + −1.54% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.41% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.48%
…of which: waiting paid+7.71%
…of which: market drift−2.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+0.96%
…of which: market drift−0.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.96% + −0.96% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.26%
…of which: waiting paid+6.95%
…of which: market drift−6.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.95% + −6.69% = +0.26%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.10% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.51%
…of which: waiting paid+3.55%
…of which: market drift−2.04%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.55% + −2.04% = +1.51%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.54% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.71%
…of which: waiting paid+5.31%
…of which: market drift−4.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.31% + −4.60% = +0.71%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game94¢
With Kalshi’s fee95¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.55%
…of which: waiting paid+2.35%
…of which: market drift−2.90%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.35% + −2.90% = −0.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.72% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.20%
…of which: waiting paid+1.83%
…of which: market drift−0.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.16%
…of which: waiting paid+4.64%
…of which: market drift−1.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.27%
…of which: waiting paid−4.32%
…of which: market drift+6.59%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.75%
…of which: waiting paid+3.70%
…of which: market drift−1.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.70% + −1.95% = +1.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.48% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game36¢
With Kalshi’s fee38¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.16%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−0.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.02%
…of which: waiting paid+5.27%
…of which: market drift−3.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.27% + −3.25% = +2.02%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+7.27%
…of which: waiting paid+7.89%
…of which: market drift−0.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.49%
…of which: market drift−3.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.49% + −3.49% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.18% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.74%
…of which: waiting paid+2.74%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.74% + 0.00% = +2.74%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.46% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.65%
…of which: waiting paid+4.29%
…of which: market drift−3.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.29%
…of which: waiting paid+2.26%
…of which: market drift−1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.78%
…of which: market drift−6.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.78% + −6.78% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.92%
…of which: waiting paid+10.00%
…of which: market drift−8.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game4¢
With Kalshi’s fee5¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.72%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.35%
…of which: waiting paid+6.16%
…of which: market drift−1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−7.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.94% + −7.94% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.72% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.44%
…of which: waiting paid+2.59%
…of which: market drift−0.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.59% + −0.14% = +2.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.46% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.12%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.63%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift+2.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + +2.62% = +3.63%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.95%
…of which: waiting paid+1.32%
…of which: market drift+4.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.32% + +4.63% = +5.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+0.55%
…of which: market drift+0.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.55% + +0.57% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.95%
…of which: waiting paid+1.42%
…of which: market drift−3.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.42% + −3.37% = −1.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.59% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game36¢
With Kalshi’s fee38¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.42%
…of which: market drift−1.42%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.42% + −1.42% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.21%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift+1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.64%
…of which: waiting paid+3.89%
…of which: market drift+0.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.89% + +0.76% = +4.64%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.59% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.48% + −1.81% = +1.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.18%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.18% = +3.18%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.05% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.89%
…of which: waiting paid+3.38%
…of which: market drift−2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.38% + −2.49% = +0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.03% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.89%
…of which: waiting paid+1.25%
…of which: market drift−0.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.25% + −0.37% = +0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.51% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.04%
…of which: waiting paid+9.20%
…of which: market drift−7.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.20%
…of which: waiting paid+3.60%
…of which: market drift−3.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.60% + −3.40% = +0.20%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.25% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift−1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + −1.01% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.33%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.33% = +3.33%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+3.33%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.33% + −4.34% = −1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.86%
…of which: waiting paid+0.89%
…of which: market drift−1.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.44%
…of which: waiting paid+2.05%
…of which: market drift−1.61%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.05% + −1.61% = +0.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.67%
…of which: waiting paid+6.54%
…of which: market drift−5.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.54% + −5.87% = +0.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.26% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.92%
…of which: waiting paid+5.21%
…of which: market drift−4.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.21% + −4.29% = +0.92%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.89%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.89% = −0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.76%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +4.76% = +4.76%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.61% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.46%
…of which: waiting paid+3.84%
…of which: market drift−2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.27%
…of which: waiting paid+3.92%
…of which: market drift−0.65%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.92% + −0.65% = +3.27%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.94%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.94% = +0.94%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.46% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.70%
…of which: waiting paid+5.49%
…of which: market drift−2.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.85%
…of which: waiting paid+2.85%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.85% + 0.00% = +2.85%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.33% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−5.21%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−5.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −5.21% = −5.21%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −6.04% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.15%
…of which: waiting paid+2.09%
…of which: market drift+1.06%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.11%
…of which: waiting paid+4.72%
…of which: market drift−0.61%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+0.93%
…of which: market drift−3.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.60%
…of which: waiting paid+0.68%
…of which: market drift+1.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.68% + +1.92% = +2.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game92¢
With Kalshi’s fee93¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.58%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+6.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.75%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.75%
…of which: waiting paid+0.75%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.52%
…of which: waiting paid+6.35%
…of which: market drift−2.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.67%
…of which: market drift−2.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.67% + −2.67% = +3.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.42%
…of which: waiting paid+4.40%
…of which: market drift−3.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.40% + −3.98% = +0.42%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.66%
…of which: waiting paid+6.13%
…of which: market drift−2.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.13% + −2.47% = +3.66%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.41%
…of which: waiting paid+5.16%
…of which: market drift−1.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.16% + −1.75% = +3.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.91%
…of which: waiting paid+6.72%
…of which: market drift−2.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.23%
…of which: waiting paid+5.24%
…of which: market drift−2.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.05%
…of which: waiting paid+4.27%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.27% + −1.22% = +3.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game2¢
With Kalshi’s fee3¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid−0.19%
…of which: market drift+3.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.63%
…of which: waiting paid+2.60%
…of which: market drift−0.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.60% + −0.97% = +1.63%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.40% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.23%
…of which: waiting paid+0.68%
…of which: market drift−0.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift−4.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.16% + −4.14% = −1.98%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.44%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift−1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.54% + −1.98% = −0.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game39¢
With Kalshi’s fee41¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.78%
…of which: waiting paid+5.98%
…of which: market drift−3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.78%
…of which: waiting paid+7.36%
…of which: market drift−1.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.14%
…of which: waiting paid+1.98%
…of which: market drift+2.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.98% + +2.16% = +4.14%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.95%
…of which: waiting paid+3.84%
…of which: market drift−1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.84% + −1.89% = +1.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.25% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.89%
…of which: waiting paid+5.07%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.58%
…of which: waiting paid−1.15%
…of which: market drift+5.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.15% + +5.73% = +4.58%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+3.63%
…of which: market drift−0.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.63% + −0.46% = +3.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.30% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+4.84%
…of which: market drift−3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.84% + −3.03% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.46% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.45%
…of which: waiting paid+4.14%
…of which: market drift−3.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.14% + −3.69% = +0.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.15% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.75%
…of which: waiting paid+2.91%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.91% + −1.16% = +1.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.11% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game2¢
With Kalshi’s fee3¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.34%
…of which: waiting paid+4.52%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.52% + −3.17% = +1.34%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.18% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.55%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.38%
…of which: waiting paid−0.20%
…of which: market drift+4.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.20% + +4.58% = +4.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.38%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.44%
…of which: waiting paid+2.78%
…of which: market drift−1.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.78% + −1.34% = +1.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.98%
…of which: waiting paid+2.88%
…of which: market drift+1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.08%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.05%
…of which: waiting paid+0.82%
…of which: market drift+4.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.82% + +4.23% = +5.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.98%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.98% = +1.98%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+0.88%
…of which: market drift+0.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.88% + +0.23% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.85% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + 0.00% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.92%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift−1.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.60%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.94% + −4.34% = +3.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.67%
…of which: waiting paid+3.60%
…of which: market drift−4.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.60% + −4.27% = −0.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.92%
…of which: waiting paid+5.19%
…of which: market drift−3.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.34%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +4.34% = +4.34%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.21% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.46%
…of which: waiting paid+2.46%
…of which: market drift−3.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+7.22%
…of which: waiting paid+8.54%
…of which: market drift−1.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.35%
…of which: waiting paid+1.94%
…of which: market drift+0.41%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.94% + +0.41% = +2.35%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.69%
…of which: market drift−3.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.90%
…of which: waiting paid+2.90%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.77%
…of which: waiting paid+5.25%
…of which: market drift−3.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+10.42%
…of which: market drift−8.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.40%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift−2.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.96% + −2.18% = +0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.40% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.96%
…of which: waiting paid+4.29%
…of which: market drift−1.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.99%
…of which: market drift−5.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.88%
…of which: waiting paid+7.29%
…of which: market drift−5.41%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.37%
…of which: waiting paid+4.62%
…of which: market drift−5.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.99%
…of which: waiting paid+1.99%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.23%
…of which: waiting paid+4.52%
…of which: market drift−3.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game73¢
With Kalshi’s fee75¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.01%
…of which: waiting paid+7.82%
…of which: market drift−3.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.06%
…of which: waiting paid+2.55%
…of which: market drift−1.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+3.46%
…of which: market drift−1.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.46% + −1.08% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.71% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+9.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.22%
…of which: waiting paid+2.73%
…of which: market drift−2.50%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.84%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+8.01%
…of which: market drift−8.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.77%
…of which: waiting paid+5.27%
…of which: market drift−3.50%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.27% + −3.50% = +1.77%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.91% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + 0.00% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.21% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+5.06%
…of which: market drift−1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.06% + −1.89% = +3.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.71% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−7.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.94% + −7.94% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.61%
…of which: waiting paid+3.52%
…of which: market drift−4.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.52% + −4.13% = −0.61%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.05% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+1.06%
…of which: market drift+1.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.16% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.21%
…of which: waiting paid+7.77%
…of which: market drift−4.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.77% + −4.56% = +3.21%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + 0.00% = +1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.54%
…of which: waiting paid+5.88%
…of which: market drift−5.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.88% + −5.34% = +0.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.09%
…of which: waiting paid+2.09%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+6.54%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.54%
…of which: waiting paid+4.34%
…of which: market drift+2.20%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.34%
…of which: waiting paid+0.22%
…of which: market drift+1.12%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.80%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.79%
…of which: waiting paid+2.02%
…of which: market drift+3.77%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.02% + +3.77% = +5.79%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.80% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+6.37%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.37%
…of which: waiting paid+1.24%
…of which: market drift+5.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.98%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.05%
…of which: waiting paid+4.44%
…of which: market drift−0.39%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.44% + −0.39% = +4.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.46%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.46% = −0.46%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.43%
…of which: waiting paid+4.60%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+2.41%
…of which: market drift+0.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.41% + +0.62% = +3.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.63% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.90%
…of which: waiting paid+2.90%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.37%
…of which: waiting paid+6.07%
…of which: market drift−5.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.07% + −5.70% = +0.37%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.89%
…of which: market drift−1.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.60%
…of which: waiting paid+5.43%
…of which: market drift−2.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+5.26%
…of which: market drift−3.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.35%
…of which: waiting paid+8.05%
…of which: market drift−8.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.96%
…of which: waiting paid+4.29%
…of which: market drift−1.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.29% + −1.32% = +2.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.42%
…of which: waiting paid+1.88%
…of which: market drift+0.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.45%
…of which: waiting paid+2.04%
…of which: market drift−1.59%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.04% + −1.59% = +0.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.40% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.64%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.64% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−3.05%
…of which: waiting paid+6.52%
…of which: market drift−9.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.52% + −9.57% = −3.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −3.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+9.68%
…of which: market drift−7.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.10%
…of which: waiting paid−6.39%
…of which: market drift+10.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.56%
…of which: waiting paid+3.20%
…of which: market drift−1.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.20% + −1.64% = +1.56%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.57%
…of which: waiting paid+1.98%
…of which: market drift−1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.98% + −1.40% = +0.57%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.78% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.07%
…of which: waiting paid+10.13%
…of which: market drift−6.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+2.07%
…of which: market drift+1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.07% + +1.11% = +3.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.87% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.28%
…of which: waiting paid+5.42%
…of which: market drift−4.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.42% + −4.14% = +1.28%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.10% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.47%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.47% = +3.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.60%
…of which: waiting paid+7.83%
…of which: market drift−6.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.83% + −6.23% = +1.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift−1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.67% + −1.67% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.33%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.82%
…of which: waiting paid+2.26%
…of which: market drift−3.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.26% + −3.08% = −0.82%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.33% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−4.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.03% + −4.84% = −1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.45% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift−2.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.87%
…of which: waiting paid+6.72%
…of which: market drift−0.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.65%
…of which: waiting paid+0.92%
…of which: market drift−0.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.92% + −0.27% = +0.65%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.62% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game38¢
With Kalshi’s fee40¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−5.56%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.72%
…of which: waiting paid+6.30%
…of which: market drift−9.02%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.30% + −9.02% = −2.72%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −5.56% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−3.14%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.14%
…of which: waiting paid+5.30%
…of which: market drift−8.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.57%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.11%
…of which: waiting paid+4.99%
…of which: market drift−2.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.99% + −2.88% = +2.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.05%
…of which: waiting paid+1.22%
…of which: market drift+2.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.22% + +2.83% = +4.05%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−4.34%
…of which: waiting paid+3.14%
…of which: market drift−7.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.14% + −7.48% = −4.34%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −3.17% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.51%
…of which: waiting paid+4.77%
…of which: market drift−2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.77% + −2.26% = +2.51%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.49% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+8.05%
…of which: market drift−8.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.60%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.60% = +2.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+7.29%
…of which: waiting paid+5.45%
…of which: market drift+1.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.32%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.79%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift+2.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + +2.78% = +3.79%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.06%
…of which: waiting paid+6.99%
…of which: market drift−8.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.99% + −8.05% = −1.06%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.07% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game8¢
With Kalshi’s fee9¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.20%
…of which: waiting paid−6.05%
…of which: market drift+5.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−6.05% + +5.85% = −0.20%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.23%
…of which: market drift−5.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.23% + −5.23% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.56% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.05%
…of which: market drift−4.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.05%
…of which: waiting paid−2.03%
…of which: market drift+6.08%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.81%
…of which: market drift−1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.81% + −1.81% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.93%
…of which: waiting paid+11.67%
…of which: market drift−9.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.78%
…of which: waiting paid+7.53%
…of which: market drift−1.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.53% + −1.75% = +5.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.64%
…of which: waiting paid+6.46%
…of which: market drift−2.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.68%
…of which: waiting paid+0.68%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.68% + 0.00% = +0.68%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.28% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.75%
…of which: waiting paid+7.43%
…of which: market drift−2.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.50%
…of which: waiting paid+9.70%
…of which: market drift−6.19%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.03%
…of which: waiting paid+6.67%
…of which: market drift−1.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.67% + −1.63% = +5.03%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.71% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.26%
…of which: waiting paid+2.12%
…of which: market drift+0.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.98%
…of which: waiting paid+6.67%
…of which: market drift−4.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.67% + −4.69% = +1.98%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.36% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.29%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.78%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.78% = −0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.04%
…of which: waiting paid+4.18%
…of which: market drift−3.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.18% + −3.14% = +1.04%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.95%
…of which: waiting paid+0.95%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.95% + 0.00% = +0.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.56%
…of which: market drift−3.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.56% + −3.56% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game40¢
With Kalshi’s fee42¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+10.71%
…of which: market drift−10.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.80%
…of which: waiting paid+10.39%
…of which: market drift−8.59%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.23%
…of which: market drift−3.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.23% + −3.23% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.34%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.34% + −4.34% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.20%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.20%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.55%
…of which: waiting paid+2.12%
…of which: market drift+0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game8¢
With Kalshi’s fee9¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.16% + −3.17% = −1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.94%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.94% = +1.94%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.40%
…of which: waiting paid+5.45%
…of which: market drift−4.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.45% + −4.05% = +1.40%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.52% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.18%
…of which: waiting paid+5.18%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.02%
…of which: waiting paid+3.61%
…of which: market drift−4.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.61% + −4.63% = −1.02%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.63% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.70%
…of which: waiting paid+2.39%
…of which: market drift−4.09%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.73%
…of which: market drift−3.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.73% + −3.73% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game8¢
With Kalshi’s fee9¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift+1.06%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + −1.22% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.42% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.72%
…of which: waiting paid+8.30%
…of which: market drift−4.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.89%
…of which: waiting paid+3.12%
…of which: market drift−4.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.12% + −4.01% = −0.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.92% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.57%
…of which: waiting paid+8.44%
…of which: market drift−5.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.12%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.28%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−2.19%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.48% + −2.19% = +1.28%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+5.38%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.38%
…of which: waiting paid+4.39%
…of which: market drift+0.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.63%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +4.63% = +4.63%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.82% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.05%
…of which: waiting paid+7.74%
…of which: market drift−3.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.48%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.48%
…of which: waiting paid+3.84%
…of which: market drift−3.36%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.64%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.32%
…of which: waiting paid+4.47%
…of which: market drift+1.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.47% + +1.85% = +6.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.64% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.70%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.36%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.36%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.36% = +3.36%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.55%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +3.55% = +3.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.93% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+7.11%
…of which: market drift−7.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.11% + −7.11% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.87% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+9.63%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+9.63%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.07%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.08%
…of which: waiting paid+2.91%
…of which: market drift−1.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.91% + −1.83% = +1.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.58% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.40%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.40% = +1.40%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.54%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift−3.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + −3.92% = −1.54%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.91% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.96%
…of which: waiting paid−1.61%
…of which: market drift+3.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.61% + +3.57% = +1.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.22%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+9.16%
…of which: market drift−8.05%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift−3.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.84%
…of which: waiting paid+1.87%
…of which: market drift+0.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+5.53%
…of which: market drift−2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.80%
…of which: waiting paid+5.83%
…of which: market drift−5.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.34%
…of which: waiting paid+3.63%
…of which: market drift−2.29%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.97%
…of which: waiting paid+5.74%
…of which: market drift−6.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.74% + −6.71% = −0.97%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.52% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.12%
…of which: waiting paid+3.64%
…of which: market drift−1.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.64% + −1.52% = +2.12%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.84% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.07%
…of which: waiting paid+6.19%
…of which: market drift−4.12%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.20%
…of which: waiting paid−0.29%
…of which: market drift+2.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.29% + +2.49% = +2.20%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.92% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.24%
…of which: market drift−4.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.24% + −4.24% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.58%
…of which: waiting paid+6.95%
…of which: market drift−3.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.95% + −3.38% = +3.58%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game24¢
With Kalshi’s fee26¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.11%
…of which: waiting paid+3.14%
…of which: market drift−3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.14% + −3.03% = +0.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.37% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.08%
…of which: waiting paid+2.08%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.08% + 0.00% = +2.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.48%
…of which: waiting paid+0.53%
…of which: market drift+1.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.53% + +1.96% = +2.48%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.73% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−4.14%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.03% + −4.14% = −1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.29%
…of which: waiting paid+3.10%
…of which: market drift+0.19%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.10% + +0.19% = +3.29%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.65% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game41¢
With Kalshi’s fee43¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift−2.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.96% + −2.96% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.10% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.78%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid−0.73%
…of which: market drift+0.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.47%
…of which: waiting paid+6.13%
…of which: market drift−3.66%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.96%
…of which: waiting paid+5.20%
…of which: market drift−4.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.56%
…of which: waiting paid+3.51%
…of which: market drift−1.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.51% + −1.95% = +1.56%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.96% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+4.76%
…of which: market drift−3.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.76% + −3.60% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.99% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.46%
…of which: waiting paid+5.02%
…of which: market drift−3.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.02% + −3.56% = +1.46%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.48% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.76%
…of which: waiting paid+3.80%
…of which: market drift+3.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.80% + +3.97% = +7.76%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +7.10% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.48%
…of which: waiting paid+4.22%
…of which: market drift−1.73%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.22% + −1.73% = +2.48%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.48% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+4.45%
…of which: market drift−4.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.64%
…of which: market drift−2.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.26%
…of which: waiting paid+5.39%
…of which: market drift−1.13%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.39% + −1.13% = +4.26%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.27% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.88%
…of which: waiting paid+3.98%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.98% + −1.11% = +2.88%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game74¢
With Kalshi’s fee76¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.82%
…of which: waiting paid+6.33%
…of which: market drift−5.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+8.25%
…of which: waiting paid+1.92%
…of which: market drift+6.33%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.92% + +6.33% = +8.25%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +8.04% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−7.62%
…of which: waiting paid+2.88%
…of which: market drift−10.50%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.88% + −10.50% = −7.62%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −7.03% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.63%
…of which: waiting paid+4.55%
…of which: market drift−3.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.51%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.25%
…of which: waiting paid+10.63%
…of which: market drift−10.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.41%
…of which: waiting paid+5.76%
…of which: market drift−3.35%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.76% + −3.35% = +2.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.86% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game92¢
With Kalshi’s fee93¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.28%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift+3.74%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.58%
…of which: waiting paid+0.58%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.58% + 0.00% = +0.58%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.49% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.77%
…of which: waiting paid+4.17%
…of which: market drift−0.40%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+2.13%
…of which: market drift−0.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.13% + −0.46% = +1.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.27% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+5.44%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+8.90%
…of which: waiting paid+10.71%
…of which: market drift−1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+10.71% + −1.81% = +8.90%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +5.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
0.00%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.25%
…of which: market drift−5.25%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.25% + −5.25% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+6.71%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.71%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+6.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+4.14%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+7.48%
…of which: waiting paid+5.56%
…of which: market drift+1.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.56% + +1.92% = +7.48%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.13%
…of which: waiting paid+9.68%
…of which: market drift−5.56%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+9.68% + −5.56% = +4.13%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.40% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.11%
…of which: waiting paid+3.83%
…of which: market drift−1.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.83% + −1.71% = +2.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+3.60%
…of which: market drift−1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.84%
…of which: market drift−3.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.84% + −3.84% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.29% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.17%
…of which: waiting paid+6.07%
…of which: market drift−4.90%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.07% + −4.90% = +1.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.60% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.96%
…of which: waiting paid−1.16%
…of which: market drift+3.12%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−1.16% + +3.12% = +1.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.74%
…of which: waiting paid+2.61%
…of which: market drift−1.87%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game54¢
With Kalshi’s fee56¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.05% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+5.56%
…of which: waiting paid+4.95%
…of which: market drift+0.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.67%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.67% = +0.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.69% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.99%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid+1.11%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.11% + 0.00% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.99% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.65%
…of which: waiting paid+2.07%
…of which: market drift+0.58%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.60%
…of which: waiting paid+2.78%
…of which: market drift−3.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.78% + −3.38% = −0.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.72% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.67%
…of which: waiting paid+1.67%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift−2.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.32%
…of which: waiting paid+4.91%
…of which: market drift−4.59%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.65%
…of which: waiting paid+3.24%
…of which: market drift−3.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.24% + −3.89% = −0.65%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.95%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−5.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.94% + −5.99% = +1.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.47% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.40%
…of which: waiting paid+4.82%
…of which: market drift−3.42%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.82% + −3.42% = +1.40%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.93% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.88%
…of which: waiting paid+8.54%
…of which: market drift−6.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.54% + −6.67% = +1.88%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.57% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.13%
…of which: market drift+1.86%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.58%
…of which: waiting paid+3.69%
…of which: market drift−4.27%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.69% + −4.27% = −0.58%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.63% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.96%
…of which: market drift−3.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.96% + −3.96% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game77¢
With Kalshi’s fee79¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game81¢
With Kalshi’s fee83¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+2.78%
…of which: market drift−0.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.78% + −0.97% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.91% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.73%
…of which: waiting paid+3.25%
…of which: market drift−3.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.45%
…of which: waiting paid+1.59%
…of which: market drift+2.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.59% + +2.85% = +4.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.28% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid+1.16%
…of which: market drift+1.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.16% + +1.22% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+5.95%
…of which: market drift−3.79%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.95% + −3.79% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.50% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.07%
…of which: waiting paid+6.90%
…of which: market drift−2.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.45%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+0.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +0.45% = +0.45%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.60%
…of which: waiting paid+0.82%
…of which: market drift+0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.98%
…of which: waiting paid+4.47%
…of which: market drift−3.49%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.01%
…of which: waiting paid+3.76%
…of which: market drift−1.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.76% + −1.75% = +2.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.26% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.73%
…of which: waiting paid+3.38%
…of which: market drift−1.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.38% + −1.64% = +1.73%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+7.41%
…of which: waiting paid+7.41%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
…of which: waiting paid+4.14%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.70%
…of which: waiting paid+2.16%
…of which: market drift+4.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.16% + +4.53% = +6.70%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +5.54% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.43%
…of which: waiting paid+0.72%
…of which: market drift+0.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.72% + +0.70% = +1.43%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+7.35%
…of which: market drift−7.35%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.43%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+2.35%
…of which: market drift−2.35%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.35% + −2.35% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.44%
…of which: waiting paid+5.23%
…of which: market drift−0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game60¢
With Kalshi’s fee62¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.20%
…of which: waiting paid+0.97%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.97% + −1.16% = −0.20%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game55¢
With Kalshi’s fee57¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.59%
…of which: waiting paid+4.94%
…of which: market drift−3.35%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.89%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.10%
…of which: waiting paid+0.73%
…of which: market drift+1.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.73% + +1.37% = +2.10%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.89% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.32%
…of which: waiting paid+4.78%
…of which: market drift−3.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.78% + −3.46% = +1.32%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.20% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.26%
…of which: waiting paid+8.59%
…of which: market drift−8.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.49%
…of which: waiting paid+0.52%
…of which: market drift+3.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.52% + +3.97% = +4.49%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.56% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.25%
…of which: waiting paid+6.64%
…of which: market drift−2.39%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.64% + −2.39% = +4.25%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−2.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.53%
…of which: waiting paid+6.01%
…of which: market drift−3.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.53%
…of which: waiting paid+1.54%
…of which: market drift−1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.54% + −1.01% = +0.53%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.61% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game93¢
With Kalshi’s fee94¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.17%
…of which: waiting paid+2.95%
…of which: market drift−4.12%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.95% + −4.12% = −1.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.87% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game42¢
With Kalshi’s fee44¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.07%
…of which: waiting paid−0.71%
…of which: market drift+5.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.71% + +5.78% = +5.07%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.92%
…of which: waiting paid+3.75%
…of which: market drift+0.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.75% + +0.17% = +3.92%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.65% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.28%
…of which: waiting paid+7.76%
…of which: market drift−6.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.76% + −6.48% = +1.28%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.93%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.95%
…of which: waiting paid+4.94%
…of which: market drift−2.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.94% + −2.99% = +1.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+8.67%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+8.67%
…of which: waiting paid+5.14%
…of which: market drift+3.53%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.81%
…of which: waiting paid−0.93%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.93% + −0.89% = −1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.99% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+4.14%
…of which: market drift−5.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.14% + −5.95% = −1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.67% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+1.76%
…of which: waiting paid+7.41%
…of which: market drift−5.64%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.83%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.83% = +1.83%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.06% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game97¢
With Kalshi’s fee98¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.51% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game49¢
With Kalshi’s fee51¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.37%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.37%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.27%
…of which: waiting paid+7.11%
…of which: market drift−4.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.11% + −4.84% = +2.27%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.58% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.17%
…of which: waiting paid+3.17%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+6.71%
…of which: market drift−6.71%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.71% + −6.71% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The 0.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift−1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.48% + −1.67% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.49%
…of which: waiting paid+3.18%
…of which: market drift+0.31%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+3.21%
…of which: market drift−3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.21% + −3.21% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.45%
…of which: waiting paid+9.41%
…of which: market drift−6.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+8.75%
…of which: market drift−7.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.75% + −7.97% = +0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.26%
…of which: waiting paid+10.59%
…of which: market drift−8.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.55%
…of which: waiting paid+6.73%
…of which: market drift−2.18%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.73% + −2.18% = +4.55%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.65% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−1.48%
…of which: waiting paid+1.50%
…of which: market drift−2.98%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.95%
…of which: waiting paid+5.79%
…of which: market drift−3.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.79% + −3.84% = +1.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.16%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+3.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.24%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.24%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game74¢
With Kalshi’s fee76¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.07%
…of which: market drift−5.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.53%
…of which: waiting paid+2.76%
…of which: market drift+0.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.48%
…of which: waiting paid+3.48%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.48% + 0.00% = +3.48%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.88% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game90¢
With Kalshi’s fee91¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.90%
…of which: waiting paid+0.15%
…of which: market drift+0.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.15% + +0.75% = +0.90%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.15%
…of which: waiting paid+6.47%
…of which: market drift−5.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.47% + −5.32% = +1.15%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.40% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game92¢
With Kalshi’s fee93¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−1.08%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.16%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.16% + −1.16% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−0.28%
…of which: waiting paid+5.71%
…of which: market drift−5.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+0.29%
…of which: waiting paid+5.13%
…of which: market drift−4.83%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+6.78%
…of which: market drift−7.94%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.78% + −7.94% = −1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.49% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.81%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.81% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.77% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.63%
…of which: waiting paid+9.47%
…of which: market drift−4.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+9.47% + −4.84% = +4.63%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game1¢
With Kalshi’s fee2¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+3.09%
…of which: market drift−0.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.09% + −0.92% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.70% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.05%
…of which: waiting paid+5.00%
…of which: market drift−1.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.79%
…of which: waiting paid+6.24%
…of which: market drift−2.45%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.96%
…of which: waiting paid+9.47%
…of which: market drift−5.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+9.47% + −5.52% = +3.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+3.14%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.73%
…of which: waiting paid−0.78%
…of which: market drift+5.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.78% + +5.52% = +4.73%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.14% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.47%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift+3.46%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.01% + +3.46% = +4.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.43% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.96%
…of which: waiting paid+4.84%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.84% + −0.89% = +3.96%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+3.70%
…of which: waiting paid+10.37%
…of which: market drift−6.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game97¢
With Kalshi’s fee98¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.97%
…of which: waiting paid+5.07%
…of which: market drift−4.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.07% + −4.11% = +0.97%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.47% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game58¢
With Kalshi’s fee60¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.23%
…of which: waiting paid+2.22%
…of which: market drift+1.01%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.22% + +1.01% = +3.23%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.99% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.66%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.81%
…of which: waiting paid+5.02%
…of which: market drift−3.21%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.02% + −3.21% = +1.81%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game4¢
With Kalshi’s fee5¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+3.66%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.35%
…of which: waiting paid+1.75%
…of which: market drift+3.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.75% + +3.60% = +5.35%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.66% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+3.64%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.84%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +4.84% = +4.84%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.64% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.52%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+5.04%
…of which: market drift−2.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.04% + −2.88% = +2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.52% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.41%
…of which: waiting paid+1.06%
…of which: market drift−1.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.06% + −1.47% = −0.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.22% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.11%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +1.11% = +1.11%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.30% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.60%
…of which: waiting paid+7.94%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+7.94% + −4.34% = +3.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.83% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game50¢
With Kalshi’s fee52¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.76%
…of which: waiting paid+5.87%
…of which: market drift−1.11%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.87% + −1.11% = +4.76%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.07% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+3.12%
…of which: market drift−1.96%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.12% + −1.96% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.69% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−4.34%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −4.34% = −4.34%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −3.97% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.39% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game48¢
With Kalshi’s fee50¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.38%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+2.38%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +2.38% = +2.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.72% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.50%
…of which: waiting paid+1.43%
…of which: market drift−1.92%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.43% + −1.92% = −0.50%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.50% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game33¢
With Kalshi’s fee35¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.05%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.05% + −0.89% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.12% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.62%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price−3.33%
…of which: waiting paid+1.01%
…of which: market drift−4.34%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.90%
…of which: waiting paid+5.45%
…of which: market drift−2.55%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.45% + −2.55% = +2.90%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.44% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.55%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+0.56%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.69%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+6.26%
…of which: waiting paid+5.27%
…of which: market drift+0.99%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.16%
…of which: waiting paid+2.42%
…of which: market drift−2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.42% + −2.26% = +0.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.07% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.15%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−1.15%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −1.15% = −1.15%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.03% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.64%
…of which: waiting paid+5.52%
…of which: market drift−1.88%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.52% + −1.88% = +3.64%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.00% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game4¢
With Kalshi’s fee5¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.71%
…of which: waiting paid+5.55%
…of which: market drift−1.84%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.55% + −1.84% = +3.71%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.33%
…of which: waiting paid+3.97%
…of which: market drift−2.65%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.97% + −2.65% = +1.33%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.08% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.02%
…of which: waiting paid+3.25%
…of which: market drift−1.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.25% + −1.23% = +2.02%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.35% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.02%
…of which: waiting paid−0.73%
…of which: market drift+2.75%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (−0.73% + +2.75% = +2.02%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.76% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.28%
…of which: waiting paid+1.74%
…of which: market drift−2.02%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.74% + −2.02% = −0.28%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.01% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game65¢
With Kalshi’s fee67¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.03%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game62¢
With Kalshi’s fee64¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.88%
…of which: waiting paid+0.65%
…of which: market drift+1.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.65% + +1.23% = +1.88%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.41% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game28¢
With Kalshi’s fee30¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.65%
…of which: waiting paid+2.83%
…of which: market drift−5.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.83% + −5.48% = −2.65%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.98% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game
99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
raw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+5.44%
…of which: market drift−5.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game66¢
With Kalshi’s fee68¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.76%
…of which: waiting paid+5.86%
…of which: market drift−1.10%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.86% + −1.10% = +4.76%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.60% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game71¢
With Kalshi’s fee73¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+4.76%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.08%
…of which: waiting paid+6.09%
…of which: market drift−4.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+6.09% + −4.00% = +2.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game69¢
With Kalshi’s fee71¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.08%
…of which: waiting paid+1.59%
…of which: market drift−0.51%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.59% + −0.51% = +1.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.07% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game68¢
With Kalshi’s fee70¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.08%
…of which: waiting paid+3.03%
…of which: market drift−0.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.03% + −0.95% = +2.08%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.16% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game70¢
With Kalshi’s fee72¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+6.41%
…of which: waiting paid+5.52%
…of which: market drift+0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.52% + +0.89% = +6.41%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +5.26% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.93%
…of which: waiting paid+0.70%
…of which: market drift+0.23%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.70% + +0.23% = +0.93%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.32% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+3.50%
…of which: waiting paid+0.41%
…of which: market drift+3.09%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.41% + +3.09% = +3.50%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.15% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game44¢
With Kalshi’s fee46¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.29%
…of which: waiting paid+2.96%
…of which: market drift+1.32%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.96% + +1.32% = +4.29%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.86% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game64¢
With Kalshi’s fee66¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.16%
…of which: waiting paid+3.36%
…of which: market drift−2.20%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.36% + −2.20% = +1.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.76% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game47¢
With Kalshi’s fee49¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.97%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−0.97%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −0.97% = −0.97%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.19% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.22%
…of which: waiting paid+2.38%
…of which: market drift−1.16%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.38% + −1.16% = +1.22%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.90% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game52¢
With Kalshi’s fee54¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+1.57%
…of which: market drift−1.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.57% + −1.57% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.18% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.62%
…of which: waiting paid+1.60%
…of which: market drift−3.22%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.60% + −3.22% = −1.62%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.26% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game98¢
With Kalshi’s fee99¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−1.24%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.67%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−1.67%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −1.67% = −1.67%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.24% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game96¢
With Kalshi’s fee97¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+1.06%
…of which: market drift−2.07%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.06% + −2.07% = −1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.01% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game45¢
With Kalshi’s fee47¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.93%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+4.93%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +4.93% = +4.93%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +3.78% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game2¢
With Kalshi’s fee3¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.89%
…of which: waiting paid+2.55%
…of which: market drift−4.44%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.55% + −4.44% = −1.89%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.92% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game57¢
With Kalshi’s fee59¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.50%
…of which: waiting paid+4.62%
…of which: market drift+0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.62% + +0.89% = +5.50%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.26% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−2.16%
…of which: waiting paid+4.53%
…of which: market drift−6.70%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.53% + −6.70% = −2.16%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.04% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game51¢
With Kalshi’s fee53¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−1.01%
…of which: waiting paid+0.84%
…of which: market drift−1.85%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.84% + −1.85% = −1.01%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.55% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game99¢
With Kalshi’s fee100¢
Counted in the price comparisonno — outside the fillable 5−95¢ band
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.71%
…of which: waiting paid+0.97%
…of which: market drift+0.74%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.97% + +0.74% = +1.71%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.75% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game56¢
With Kalshi’s fee58¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Kalshi ask, pre-game
5¢
With Kalshi’s fee6¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.17%
…of which: waiting paid+2.35%
…of which: market drift−2.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.35% + −2.52% = −0.17%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −1.54% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game59¢
With Kalshi’s fee61¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.44%
…of which: waiting paid+5.23%
…of which: market drift−0.78%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.23% + −0.78% = +4.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.38% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid+0.89%
…of which: market drift−0.89%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+0.89% + −0.89% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +0.34% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game46¢
With Kalshi’s fee48¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game67¢
With Kalshi’s fee69¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−3.44%
…of which: waiting paid+8.03%
…of which: market drift−11.47%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+8.03% + −11.47% = −3.44%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −2.28% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basis
de-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.82%
…of which: waiting paid+5.75%
…of which: market drift−6.57%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+5.75% + −6.57% = −0.82%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.53% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game63¢
With Kalshi’s fee65¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.23%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+2.47%
…of which: waiting paid+2.67%
…of which: market drift−0.20%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.67% + −0.20% = +2.47%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +2.23% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game43¢
With Kalshi’s fee45¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.78%
…of which: waiting paid+1.48%
…of which: market drift−2.26%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.48% + −2.26% = −0.78%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.31% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game61¢
With Kalshi’s fee63¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.81%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−0.75%
…of which: waiting paid+2.75%
…of which: market drift−3.50%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+2.75% + −3.50% = −0.75%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.81% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.35%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.38%
…of which: waiting paid+1.23%
…of which: market drift+3.15%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+1.23% + +3.15% = +4.38%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.35% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−7.28%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price−5.95%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift−5.95%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + −5.95% = −5.95%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −7.28% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+2.05%
Basisraw price-to-price
Raw close vs our price+2.05%
…of which: waiting paid+4.34%
…of which: market drift−2.28%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Exchange cross-check
Kalshi ask, pre-game53¢
With Kalshi’s fee55¢
Counted in the price comparisonyes
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.61%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+1.36%
…of which: waiting paid+4.84%
…of which: market drift−3.48%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+4.84% + −3.48% = +1.36%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.61% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+4.02%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+5.60%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift+5.60%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + +5.60% = +5.60%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +4.02% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.95%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+4.52%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
+1.09%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price0.00%
…of which: waiting paid0.00%
…of which: market drift0.00%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (0.00% + 0.00% = 0.00%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The +1.09% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
−0.30%
Basisde-vigged, both sides frozen at lock
Raw close vs our price+0.46%
…of which: waiting paid+3.63%
…of which: market drift−3.17%
Positive means we locked a better number than the market settled at. It can be negative and it is shown when it is. Beating the close and still losing is normal, and so is winning at a worse price than the close. Never read it as a return: break-even is roughly half the hold we paid, about +2.25 points.
Why two numbers. The two legs telescope to the raw figure (+3.63% + −3.17% = +0.46%), because an opening quote for the other side was never captured and only raw prices can be chained. The −0.30% above is the de-vigged number, which strips the book’s margin off both ends. They differ by the change in that margin, and we never average them together.
Every value on this card is read off one row of the MLB board. Where a field is not in the payload the card says so rather than filling it in. This row is in the CSV, unchanged.
Alejandro KirkOver 0.5-150 at ProphetXproj 1.07 · not settled+1.39%CLV vs closeOpen—