StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts
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Alyssa Thomas

Phoenix Mercury · F · WNBA — projections, accuracy, and the game log to decide for yourself.

Game log & hit rates — filter it yourself

How often Assists cleared the under 7.5 — pick a split:

3/1030% cleared underavg 8.6
09-19@ DAL11
09-18@ POR6
08-30vs TOR12
08-28vs WSH8
08-26vs WSH10
08-23vs ATL10
08-16vs POR9
08-12vs LA9
08-09@ WSH6
08-07@ CON5

Trailing results, not a forecast — shown beside our projection, never instead of it. Game log via ESPN.

Tonight’s projections

Assists7.7 we project
Points15.0 we project
Pts+Reb+Ast29.6 we project
Rebounds8.3 we project

Projection accuracy — every projection we’ve logged

Marketnavg missbiaswithinlast 10
Rebounds4±1.6
Assists2±1.5
Points2±2.9
Pts+Reb+Ast1±3.9

Every projection logged before tip and checked against the box score — never deleted. This is accuracy, not a betting record.

Predicted vs actual — recent

DateMarketWe saidActualMiss
08-29Rebounds6.86+0.8
08-27Assists6.98−1.1
08-25Points12.716−3.3
08-22Points13.411+2.4
08-16Rebounds8.011−3.0
08-09Assists7.96+1.9
08-07Rebounds7.48−0.6
08-05Rebounds6.95+1.9
07-19Pts+Reb+Ast27.924+3.9

Full game log — via ESPN

DateOppResultMINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFGFG%3PT3P%FTFT%PF
09-19@ DALL 87-82301910111228-1172.70-00.03-560.02
09-18@ PORW 94-913118861056-875.00-00.06-1060.03
08-30vs TORW 101-692246121022-540.00-00.00-00.02
08-28vs WSHL 80-733241080121-520.00-00.02-2100.02
08-26vs WSHL 94-8431166103048-1361.50-00.00-00.04
08-23vs ATLL 99-89331116101024-1040.00-00.03-560.02
08-16vs PORL 88-8534171192057-1163.61-1100.02-2100.03
08-12vs LAW 94-873316791155-862.50-00.06-785.71
08-09@ WSHL 95-7531101060035-1533.30-10.00-00.02
08-07@ CONL 75-723510854023-933.30-00.04-1040.04
08-05@ ATLL 96-823817571147-1258.30-00.03-475.01
08-04@ CHIW 106-101381915120165-955.60-00.09-9100.05
08-01vs NYL 94-923617672047-1258.30-00.03-475.04
07-30vs GSW 91-8938259801410-1471.40-00.05-862.52
07-22@ LAW 86-82361911153135-955.60-00.09-1369.22
07-19vs CONW 72-633476111112-922.20-00.03-650.04
07-18vs CONL 96-833617860137-1258.30-00.03-475.05
07-14@ MINL 104-10037198121048-1457.10-00.03-475.01
07-11@ LVL 106-58297610023-837.50-00.01-250.01
07-10vs INDL 92-8933226711110-1855.60-00.02-2100.04