Tony Pollard Projections

TEN · RB · #20

Next game at IND · Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets

REC RUSH YDS REC YDS RUSH+REC

Receptions · Week 6

at IND · Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Projection only

1.6Projection · receptions

1.5Line · consensus

+0.1Gap

Average · last 5 games 1.6

Average miss 1.6 · NFL reception model · 146 graded projections · Updated Oct 16

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Measured, not bet

NFL projections are graded against the result, never bet: no NFL play is logged at a price.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Receptions	1.6	1.5	+0.1
Rushing Yards	54.4	53.5	+0.9
Receiving Yards	11.5	10.5	+1.0
Rush + Rec Yards	61.1	69.5	−8.4

Recent receptions

actual results · regular season · via ESPN

1.4Average receptions, last 10 (10 games)Over 1.5 in 4 of 10 · past results, not odds

Dec 7

Dec 14

Dec 21

Dec 28

Jan 4

Sep 13

Sep 20

Sep 27

Oct 4

Oct 11

Actual · 2026 Actual · 2025 Projection Market line Typical miss (past) · ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this gameBars: actual games (2026 in full colour, 2025 lighter; earlier season dimmed). Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against. Shaded: typical miss (past), ±1.6 around the projection. How far past projections landed on average, not a range for this game.

Current through Oct 11 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Tony Pollard receptions by game
Date	Opponent	REC
Oct 11	vs HOU	0
Oct 4	@ BAL	2
Sep 27	@ NYG	4
Sep 20	vs PHI	1
Sep 13	vs NYJ	1
Jan 4	@ JAX · 2025	3
Dec 28	vs NO · 2025	2
Dec 21	vs KC · 2025	0
Dec 14	@ SF · 2025	1
Dec 7	@ CLE · 2025	0

Tony Pollard’s last 5 games on one page

This matchup

The rest of IND vs TEN

Opponent: IND
Kickoff: Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET
Availability: Injury reports: not on StatIQ for NFL yet
Opponent defense: IND allowed the 23rd-most receptions to RBs in 2025 3.9/game · 23rd of 32
Against IND: 1.5 a game 2 previous meetings · small sample

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Receptions · Tony Pollard

Receptions · line 1.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 1.5	Under 1.5
Bally BetOct 16, 7:09 AM ET	−195	–
betPARXOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−195	+130Best
BetRiversOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−195	–
DraftKingsOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−153Best	+120
ESPN BETOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−155	+120
FanDuelOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−158	+118
Hard Rock BetOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−155	+120
Hardrockbet FlOct 16, 7:10 AM ET	−155	+120
Shown, never used as our price
FliffOct 16, 7:11 AM ET	−160	+110

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 7:11 AM ET.

About these books

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Research

Ask Explorer about Tony Pollard

Questions to ask Explorer about Tony Pollard, answered here:

Model accuracy

NFL reception model · 146 graded projections

1.6average miss (mean absolute error)

74 of 146 within 1.5

74 of 146 landed within 1.5 (shaded) · one dot per completed projection

Neither number is a range for this game.

See the 2026 NFL forward test

How this is calculated

StatIQ projects Tony Pollard for 1.6 receptions against IND in Week 6. One number, not a range or a promised outcome. For context, Tony Pollard has averaged 1.6 over his last 5 games, 1.6 per game this season (2026), and 1.5 across 2 games against IND; the model is not recomputed from those averages.

Projection: StatIQ’s single number for Tony Pollard’s receptions in this game: not a range and not a pick.
Line: The market’s number for the same stat (consensus across books), shown so you can compare.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.1 here). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average miss is the average distance between our receptions projection and the actual result, over 146 completed projections across all players this season.
Actual: Tony Pollard’s box-score result in each regular-season game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

Common questions

What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Tony Pollard vs IND?

StatIQ projects Tony Pollard for 1.6 receptions against IND in Week 6. It is the model's single-number projection (not a range or a guaranteed outcome) with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Tony Pollard performed in receptions recently?

Tony Pollard has averaged 1.6 over his last 5 games, 1.6 per game this season (2026), and 1.5 across 2 games against IND. That is context to weigh the projection against. The model is not recomputed from these averages.

How many receptions did Tony Pollard have in his last game?

Tony Pollard had 0 receptions in his most recent game vs HOU. The full game log on the page has the rest.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 146 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.6 of the actual result on average. That is the track record behind this number.

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