StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Justin Herbert Projections

LAC · QB · #10
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs SEA
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
202.8passing yards projected vs SEA
Season average 209 · Last five 232.6
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 62.8 yards of the result
Recent passing yards
063127190253209ARI192LV226BUFStatIQ projection 202.8
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentPASS YDS
Sep 27, 2026@ @ BUF226
Sep 20, 2026vs vs LV192
Sep 13, 2026vs vs ARI209
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Justin Herbert
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Justin Herbert trending lately?232.6 yards per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Justin Herbert, 202.8 passing yards

StatIQ projects Justin Herbert for 202.8 passing yards against SEA in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Justin Herbert has averaged 232.6 yards over his last 5 games and 209 yards per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 89 completed passing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 62.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Justin Herbert’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Passing Yards track record
62.8yards
average projection miss
45 within
89 completed passing yards projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
SEA
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
232.6 yards over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's passing yards projection for Justin Herbert vs SEA?

StatIQ projects Justin Herbert for 202.8 yards passing yards against SEA in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Justin Herbert performed in passing yards recently?

Justin Herbert has averaged 232.6 yards over his last 5 games and 209 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's passing yards projections?

Across 89 completed passing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 62.8 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

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