StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Brian Thomas Jr Projections

JAX · WR · #7
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs CIN
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
3.2receptions projected vs CIN
Season average 2.3 · Last five 2.8
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1.7 of the result
Recent receptions
012343CLE3DEN1NEStatIQ projection 3.2
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentREC
Sep 27, 2026vs vs NE1
Sep 20, 2026@ @ DEN3
Sep 13, 2026vs vs CLE3
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Brian Thomas Jr
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How has Brian Thomas Jr done against CIN?4 per game1 game vs CINExplore this question

Projection context: Brian Thomas Jr, 3.2 receptions

StatIQ projects Brian Thomas Jr for 3.2 receptions against CIN in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Brian Thomas Jr has averaged 2.8 over his last 5 games, 2.3 per game this season (2026), and 4 across 1 game against CIN. That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 484 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.7 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Brian Thomas Jr’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Receptions track record
1.7
average projection miss
1.5 within
484 completed receptions projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
CIN
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
2.8 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Brian Thomas Jr vs CIN?

StatIQ projects Brian Thomas Jr for 3.2 receptions against CIN in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Brian Thomas Jr performed in receptions recently?

Brian Thomas Jr has averaged 2.8 over his last 5 games, 2.3 per game this season (2026), and 4 across 1 game against CIN. That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 484 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.7 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of CIN vs JAX
the whole game
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