StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Aaron Jones Projections

MIN · RB · #33
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs MIA
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
64.6rushing yards projected vs MIA
Season average 67.7 · Last five 68.2
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 23.9 yards of the result
Recent rushing yards
029598811840GB105CHI58TBStatIQ projection 64.6
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentRUSH YDS
Sep 27, 2026@ @ TB58
Sep 20, 2026@ @ CHI105
Sep 13, 2026vs vs GB40
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Aaron Jones
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Aaron Jones trending lately?68.2 yards per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Aaron Jones, 64.6 rushing yards

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 64.6 rushing yards against MIA in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Aaron Jones has averaged 68.2 yards over his last 5 games and 67.7 yards per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 169 completed rushing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 23.9 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Aaron Jones’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Rushing Yards track record
23.9yards
average projection miss
25 within
169 completed rushing yards projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
MIA
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
68.2 yards over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's rushing yards projection for Aaron Jones vs MIA?

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 64.6 yards rushing yards against MIA in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Aaron Jones performed in rushing yards recently?

Aaron Jones has averaged 68.2 yards over his last 5 games and 67.7 yards per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's rushing yards projections?

Across 169 completed rushing yards projections, StatIQ has landed within 23.9 yards of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of MIA vs MIN
the whole game
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