StatIQNFL projections — with the receipts

Aaron Jones Projections

MIN · RB · #33
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
vs MIA
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Week 4
Compare
2.3receptions projected vs MIA
Season average 1.7 · Last five 2
Updated Oct 1
Typically within 1.7 of the result
Recent receptions
013460GB0CHI5TBStatIQ projection 2.3
Tap a bar — or a row below — to link a number to its game.
DateOpponentREC
Sep 27, 2026@ @ TB5
Sep 20, 2026@ @ CHI0
Sep 13, 2026vs vs GB0
Splits are what he has actually done. The projection is pinned — it does not change when you switch splits.
Dig deeper into Aaron Jones
Recent games, opponent history, third downs, injuries, comparisons, the exact plays — you decide.
How is Aaron Jones trending lately?2 per gameover the last 5 gamesExplore this question

Projection context: Aaron Jones, 2.3 receptions

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 2.3 receptions against MIA in Week 4. It’s the model’s single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — and the game log above is the actual history behind it, so you can judge the number yourself.

What we’re seeing, as supporting evidence rather than the reason the model landed on this number: Aaron Jones has averaged 2 over his last 5 games and 1.7 per game this season (2026). That’s the recent record to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

Across 484 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.7 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

See Aaron Jones’s last 5 games in full
StatIQ’s Receptions track record
1.7
average projection miss
1.5 within
484 completed receptions projections across all players
See the 2026 forward test
This matchup
Opponent
MIA
Kickoff
Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Status
No injury designation — board data as of Oct 2, 2:13 AM
Recent form
2 over the last 5
Common questions
What is StatIQ's receptions projection for Aaron Jones vs MIA?

StatIQ projects Aaron Jones for 2.3 receptions against MIA in Week 4. It is the model's single-number projection — not a range or a guaranteed outcome — with the full game log on the page so you can weigh it yourself.

How has Aaron Jones performed in receptions recently?

Aaron Jones has averaged 2 over his last 5 games and 1.7 per game this season (2026). That is context to weigh the projection against — the model is not recomputed from these averages.

How accurate are StatIQ's receptions projections?

Across 484 completed receptions projections, StatIQ has landed within 1.7 of the actual result on average — the track record behind this number.

The rest of MIA vs MIN
the whole game
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