What does StatIQ project for Patrick Bailey?

StatIQ shows current MLB projections for Patrick Bailey in Hits, Home Runs, RBIs, and Total Bases, each with the player's recent form, season stats and the full game log so you can weigh the number yourself. Projections are model estimates, not guarantees.

Does StatIQ show a track record for Patrick Bailey?

Yes. Every graded MLB projection StatIQ logs is public (wins and losses alike) and the page shows how close StatIQ has landed for Patrick Bailey. No edge or profit is claimed.

Patrick Bailey Prop Projections

Cleveland Guardians · C · MLB

Next game Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

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Projections & lines

4 markets

Total Bases Hits Home Runs RBIs

Total Bases

Oct 16

Projection only

1.05Projection · total bases

0.5Line · ProphetX

+0.55Gap

Compare prices

No pick logged for Patrick Bailey on this board · the numbers here are projections, not picks

A logged pick is recorded at a price before the game and kept in the record, win or lose. A card marked Projection only is a projection we did not take.

Market	Projection	Line	Gap
Total Bases	1.05	0.50	+0.55
Hits	0.63	0.50	+0.13
Home Runs	0.12	0.50	−0.38
RBIs	0.33	0.50	−0.17

Recent games

actual results · log current through Oct 15 · includes postseason · via ESPN

2.20Average total bases, last 10 (10 games)Over 0.50 in 6 of 10 · past results, not odds

Sep 26

Sep 27

Oct 3

Oct 5

Oct 7

Oct 8

Oct 10

Oct 12

Oct 13

Oct 15

Actual Projection Market lineBars: actual games. Dashed: our projection for the next game. Dotted: the market line, which the hit count is measured against.

Current through Oct 15 · ● landed over · ○ did not

Full game log

Patrick Bailey game log
Date	Opponent	Total Bases
Oct 15	vs TB · Postseason	1
Oct 13	@ TB · Postseason	0
Oct 12	@ TB · Postseason	5
Oct 10	vs CHW · Postseason	0
Oct 8	@ CHW · Postseason	5
Oct 7	@ CHW · Postseason	2
Oct 5	vs CHW · Postseason	0
Oct 3	vs CHW · Postseason	1
Sep 27	@ KC	0
Sep 26	@ KC	8

Every column, last 20 games · via ESPN

Patrick Bailey full game log, last 20 games
Date	Opp	Result	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Oct 15	vs TB	W 3-2	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.348	.400	.609	1.009
Oct 13	@ TB	L 3-1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	.350	.409	.650	1.059
Oct 12	@ TB	W 7-3	4	1	2	0	1	1	0	0	2	.368	.400	.684	1.084
Oct 10	vs CHW	W 2-0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.333	.375	.533	.908
Oct 8	@ CHW	W 9-5	3	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	.417	.462	.667	1.128
Oct 7	@ CHW	W 9-3	4	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	.333	.400	.333	.733
Oct 5	vs CHW	L 4-3	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.200	.200	.200	.400
Oct 3	vs CHW	L 3-0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000
Sep 27	@ KC	L 3-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.206	.272	.335	.607
Sep 26	@ KC	W 11-5	5	2	2	0	2	3	0	0	2	.208	.274	.338	.611
Sep 25	@ KC	W 12-9	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.207	.274	.320	.594
Sep 24	@ BOS	W 1-0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.205	.269	.317	.586
Sep 23	@ BOS	L 1-0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.207	.272	.320	.592
Sep 20	vs ATH	W 1-0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.205	.271	.320	.591
Sep 18	vs ATH	W 5-3	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	.207	.274	.323	.597
Sep 15	vs CHW	W 7-6	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	.207	.274	.324	.598
Sep 14	vs CHW	L 7-3	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.209	.274	.328	.602
Sep 13	@ MIN	W 9-2	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	.208	.275	.329	.603
Sep 9	@ BAL	L 9-5	3	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	.209	.276	.331	.607
Sep 8	@ BAL	W 9-5	4	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	.207	.273	.327	.600

Context

Next game: Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians · Fri, Oct 16, 8:00 PM ET

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Total Bases · Patrick Bailey

Total Bases · line 0.5 · each book’s price for both sides. “Best” is the best among eligible books on that side, not a pick.

Book	Over 0.5	Under 0.5
BetMGM	−125	−105
Caesars	−121	−110
ESPN BET	−130	+100Best
ProphetX	−116Best	−112
Shown, never used as our price
BetOnline	−115	−112
Fliff	−135	−120
ReBet	−121	−118

Eligible books quote this line and can be marked Best. Offshore, sweepstakes and pick’em rows, and any price at a different line, are shown but not eligible for Best.

Prices as of Oct 16, 8:05 AM ET.

About these books

Exchange. A federally regulated prediction market, not a state-licensed sportsbook. The price is real, but player-prop depth is thin. Check the size you can actually get before you treat this as your number.

Offshore. Offshore and unlicensed in the US. It has paid reliably for over two decades and often has the better number, but no US regulator can make it pay you, and its rules let it void bets it decides were priced in error, which is exactly the kind of bet we surface.

Sweepstakes. Sweepstakes, not cash betting. This number is priced in promotional currency with playthrough and redemption limits, so it is worth less than the same number at a cash book. We never count it as a best price.

Model accuracy

every projection logged for Patrick Bailey

Not enough graded projections yet for Hits, Total Bases, Home Runs and RBIs. An average miss prints once a market has 20. The Graded column counts what there is so far.

Patrick Bailey: projection accuracy by market
Market	Graded	Average miss	Landed within
Hits	5	–	–
Total Bases	1	–	–

Neither column is a range for the next game.

See every graded MLB pick in the record

How this is calculated

Projection: StatIQ’s number for Patrick Bailey’s next game in that stat: an estimate, not a pick.
Line: The market’s number at the book named beside it.
Gap: Projection minus the line (+0.55 for total bases). A difference, never an edge.
Average miss: The average distance between the projection and the box score, over this player’s graded projections in that market. Every projection is logged before the game and never deleted; this is accuracy, not a betting record.
Actual: Patrick Bailey’s box-score result in each game (via ESPN): the bars in the chart.

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